Mick’s Mail: Caulfield 31/08/2024

R1- I like the resuming Matriarch Rose at double figure odds to kick us off. She goes well when fresh, gets a nice claim for Jaylah Kennedy and her recent jump out suggests she has come back well after her break. Jaylah has a great affinity with this mare having ridden her 4 times for 2 wins and a third.

Another one I give a hope to at decent odds is Jennipending. Her two runs this time in have both had excuses and she has still performed well, with even luck and from a favourable draw she won’t be too far away.

Lovazou is racing in great heart and must be considered as does Fire Of Etna who loves the distance and Luke Currie boasts an excellent record on her.

Backing #7 Matriarch Rose

R2- I like the freshening up of Craig here. The stable cleverly gave him a nice break after his July 6 run at Flemington with the view of better races ahead. The 1400M suits perfectly and its recent quiet trail will have him ready to go here. The race lacks depth, from the gate he should get plenty of favours and be too good for them.

The Open will provide the stiffest opposition, he is very honest and is racing in career best form. Barrier 12 is a little sticky, Tom Prebble will push forward and try to get a march on them.

He’s Beset trounced them when dropping back in class last start, he will look to get a smother back in the field from his wide gate and if they go crazy early will be storming home.

Step Aside is rock hard fit now and will appreciate a return to the drier surface.

Backing #12 Craig

R3- The Kiwi visitor Gentian Blue is my best value bet on the card. At his two runs here in Oz he has been unsuited by the race shape. The step up to 1700M at this stage is ideal and I expect a big run at around $17. He will also benefit hugely being back on top of the ground as he hates anything but a hard deck.

Rise To It is the danger, he is ready to peak, drawn the coveted rails barrier and gets Kah to steer. The drop back from 2000m is also advantageous to my eye.

Let’sbefrankbaby is first up from a 3200M run and this trip is perfect at this stage of its prep. She has a bit of class about her and could run a bold race.

Tycoon Bec also presents here fresh off a late Autumn campaign. Matt Cumani looks to have targeted this race as a perfect kick off point for his talented mare, she is another who hates wet tracks and gets conditions to suit.

Backing #13 Gentian Blue

R4- Alder is the one I think has the greatest scope here. His run first up was full of merit, last start Point King got a march on him at a vital stag and he still worked to the line well. I think Caulfield will suit him better than the Valley and I see him positioning up midfield and unleashing down the middle of the track to win.

Young Werther has had a freshen up, gets a suck barrier and Shinn on, he always runs well in these types of events.

The enigmatic Duke De Sessa must go in, at his best he would blow them away. He has a very good 4^th up record and Zahra is in red hot form.

Gear Up usually runs well early in its prep, he maps to get a nice run behind Rolls in a race devoid of speed and could surprise.

Backing #11 Alder

R5- A race now smashed with the scratching’s of 2 main players.

Kallos comes out on top now, he goes well fresh, loves the distance, is drawn perfectly and his 2 trials suggest he has come back very well.

Recommendation has returned better than ever this time in, he will sit up outside Acromantula and if he can get a few steady sectionals, he will prove tough to beat.

The race falls away hugely from there with Marble Nine and Nettuno like to fill the minor placings.

Backing #1 Kallos

R6- Another of my good bets on the card is Wonder Boy. I have a big opinion of this son of Cosmic Force, and I see him winning a big race this Spring. He didn’t have things go his way first up although his work late was very good. Barrier 8 is a tick for me also, he gets more room to unleash his powerful sprint and at the $10 currently on offer I think he presents enormous value.

Stay Focused is his main (and only) danger I believe. This is a very talented colt, again by Cosmic Force, an emerging stallion who is a force to be reckoned with. This fella raced at the very highest level in his first campaign and proved he is an elite horse; he could very well be a 3yo hope in a Cox Plate.

Growing Empire is a smart type and will be competitive, although I think he’s poor value at the $2.50 currently on offer. He has a tough draw and I’m not sure that form is as franked as it is with the other 2 I’ve selected.

Band Of Brothers is very honest, has drawn well and can fill a place.

Backing #6 Wonder Boy, saving on #3 Stay Focused

R7- Expressiveness is my top pick here. She is a very honest mare, winning a 3^rd of her starts, is drawn perfectly and gets Lane to ride. She is also 2 from 3 second up and the Price/Kent team will have targeted this race for black type to enhance her broodmare status.

Quintessa is the danger, she’s a classy mare who flies first up and at 1200M. Mark Walker is a very good trainer, and he will have her cherry ripe for this.

The banana bender Comrade Rosa is also very talented , if she produces her best she will be around the mark at the business end of proceedings.

Caste will improve off her first up run, if they overcook it early look for her to be finishing hard late.

Backing #12 Expressiveness and #1 Quintessa

R8- This is a tricky event with more angles than a dodecahedron.

I’ve settled on the Hayes import Que Tempesta. I like it being first up at 1700M, the booking of Zahra and the soft draw. The betting will show where he is at given one of its main dangers is its stablemate.

The resuming Positivity goes in as my second pick. She is an above average mare and Andrew Forsman has picked a nice race for her to kick her campaign off in. Her two acclimatising runs here from NZ stamped her as one that should be followed through the Spring. She is worth a small ticket here at $18 I’m thinking.

The other Hayes hope Rise At Dawn can’t be dismissed. He is racing is stellar form, is drawn perfectly, and gets Micky Dee on who is one from one on him.

Jimmy The Bear has raced in tougher company recently and the step down in grade will assist.

Backing #2 Que Tempesta

R9- What a race to kick the carnival with two of the Australia’s favourite horses.

All sentimentality aside, I think Mr Brightside is close to a good thing and only luck will prevent him from winning. This fabulous horse loves Caulfield loves the distance, and is 5 from 5 at the track/distance. If there is a knock it’s his fresh form where he is only 3 from 7. That said, he has an enormous will to win and finds a few others with more chinks that he has.

Aegon is my 2^nd pick, he returned with a flashing run first up and is a very smart horse on his day.

The Gollan trained Antino has been set for a first up kill and if they go mad early, can peel off some very slick sectionals.

Pride Of Jenni is an exciting mare but usually takes a run to get to her best and because of that I can’t be on her.

Backing #1 Mr Brightside

R10- I’m tipping Jennilala to resume here a winner. She is unbeaten first up, goes well at the track and distance and Declan Bates is 3 wins and 2 placings from his 5 rides on her. The barrier is a mild worry, but they will look to be positive on her and dictate the race.

The Waller trained Snowman has some very impressive runs on his record, many of them around horses far better than these. If he is back to his best and over the issues from last preps aborted campaign, then he could be too good.

Another Wil is highly talented and will be thereabouts, he improved several grades in his brief career but will need luck from the draw. The $2.50 currently on offer is too skinny for me.

Brayden Star is a talented horse and can surprise fresh.

Backing #11 Jennilala and #16 Snowman

R1-7x value,10,4,5

R2-12xx,1,13,4

R3-13x best value,12…1,5

R4-11,3,2,4

R5-1,2,7,6

R6-6xx,3…1,2

R7-12x,1…5,13

R8-2,14,13,5

R9-1xxx best/day,2,6,7

R10-11x,16,2,9

R2-12

R6-6

R9-1 Best of the Day

R1-7

R3-13 Best Value

R10-11

Top Pick (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 10

Return – 11.3

ROI +13%

Bets – 36

Return – 33.7

ROI -6.39%