Racing Tips: Pakenham 03/12/2025

R4-6

R7-12 best value play

R8-3 best bet of the day

R1 – No Bet

R2 – #4 Black Peppermint (1.5 win units), #9 The Storyteller (1 win unit)

R3 – #7 Tarvue (0.5 win unit)

R4 – Backing #6 Sweethearted (2.5 win units)

R5- No Bet

R6 – No Bet

R7 – #12 Firm Agreement (1 win unit, 2 place units).

R8 – #3 Private Eye (3 win units).

R9 – #10 Ndola (1.5 win units), #11 Modown (0.5 win unit).

R10- #16 Heart Of Glass (1.5 win units), #2 The Open (0.5 win unit).

TOTAL INVESTMENT – 15.5 units

R1–We kick off with a field of nine and only one runner has had a start. On that basis we wont be betting but I am keen to watch Milsons Point, He’s Regal, and Bright Star from a future viewpoint.

No Bet

R2- The first of the day’s staying tests and I like the last start Payne winner in Black Peppermint. This lightly raced 7yo was the beneficiary of an outstanding ride from Luke Nolen that day, and I can see a repeat here. Whilst he will need to be a bit cute early to obtain some cover, with luck and a little patience it should be too strong late in the piece. The $8 is very appealing too.

The Storyteller is hard fit now after 2 nice conditioning runs, he draws perfectly, Neindorf is riding beautifully, and he is a winner at his only start at the track/trip.

Shockletz is a danger, she should get plenty of favours from the draw and will be in the finish. If there are a couple of negatives, the weight is one, the price the other.

Leonchroi has been thereabouts recently, and a forward showing is expected..

Backing #4 Black Peppermint (1.5 win units), #9 The Storyteller (1 win unit)

R3- A very tricky race presents here, as a result I won’t be playing.

Astral Flame is on top; she gets a nice run just behind the pace and should be strong late, as long as they don’t go mental in front. Lightly raced, draw suits, love the trainer and the jockey is flying.

I Only Wish will provide stiff opposition, she isn’t a prolific winner, but she can reel off nice sectionals. There is good enough speed to suggest that she will finish off strongly late.

Jenni Gone Bonkers is a nice horse who can win this and drops in grade off recent runs. The barrier is sticky and the price skinny, de to those 2 factors I won’t be backing her.

One that might be worth a small ticket is Tarvue, it has performed well previously when 2^nd up and off an ordinary first up attempt, the $27 is over the odds.

Backing #7 Tarvue (0.5 win unit)

R4- Its D-Day for me with Sweethearted, his first 2 runs back from a spell have both had “back me next time’ written all over it, he’s a 3^rd up winner, has won at the track at his only try and will be storming home late.

Biancelli was a nice run when resuming and Logan Bates will have options from the draw; he is the hardest to beat.

Celerity also gets a few favours from the draw and is an honest mare, she will be thereabouts.

Rewards And More loves the track and more importantly the distance, he could be the knockout whilst fresh.

Backing #6 Sweethearted (2.5 win units)

R5- A very open race presents here, and I’ve got Politely Dun on top. He is ready now after 3 runs back from a let up, loves the distance, a firmer track suits, and it should get a nice run from the barrier.

Suntora gets in well at the weights and is coming off a nice win last start, any market moves from this astute stable should be respected.

Junebug is ready now after 3 runs from a spell, worth noting it wasn’t far away from the smart Skippers Canyon last start, it will go around as favourite in the Cup later in the day.

Promised Land gets in under the limit after its claim, it has drawn perfectly and loves the trip, it’s a big chance.

No Bet

R6- Another tricky race of many chances.

Waimaree was good to us last Saturday and returns on the 7-day backup, it’s the perfect set up for a 1600M race where she’s won 3 from 6, Ryan Houston’s claim is a big help too.

Farhh Flung was good in the Kilmore Cup and comes here with good stats at the distance/track, Williams has a good affinity with him too.

Madiyya will appreciate the weight drop off its first up run, she is a tiny horse but has a big motor, don’t dismiss her.

Electric Impulse has a better map here than last start and can improve dramatically, Ben Allen knows her well and she loves the 1600M trip.

No Bet

R7- The Cup and I like one at big odds Firm Agreement. Whilst you might dismiss a horse that’s only won 1 from 15 starts, its effort last Saturday was significantly better than it appeared, it was caught in the worse part of the track and battled well to the line. The 7-day back up, fitness in its legs, a winner of over $800K (primarily from running 2^nd in the AJC Derby behind a group 1 horse in Aeliana) and finding a race of moderate opposition, makes it a great value play around $27.

Ziryab battled bravely when nudged out by Black Run last start, it was 1800M up to 2400M that day and was only nabbed late, that will have steeled him well for this.

Black Run is both honest and tough having gone to a new level this campaign, he’s a definite chance.

Skippers Canyon is drawn to get a plum run and must go into the chances, the $4.40 is a tad skinny though.

Backing #12 Firm Agreement (1 win unit, 2 place units).

R8- Our bet of the day arrives here in the shape of Private Eye. This winner of over $12M has grades over his opposition here, if this was a handicap he would have to give all his opposition considerable weight.  A recent barrier trial at Kembla has brought him along to peak here.

Warnie maps to track the speed from its barrier and is one of the place chances.

Here To Shock will take up a forward position form its barrier and try to steal a march on them, if there is a track bias he may prove tough to run down.

Hughes whilst out of its grade can race more forward and loves the distance. He could surprise at massive odds.

Backing #3 Private Eye (3 win units).

R9- We are backing 2 runners here.  Firstly, Ndola meets Persian Spirit a whooping 7kgs better off their last meeting, being fresh suits, and the 1400M is perfect.

Modown flies 2^nd up and has won on both occasions at the track and trip.

Jimmy The Bear is the class runner, he loves the distance and will be storming home late.

Persian Spirit is racing well this campaign, although he is having his 6^th run in and is no value at the current price.

Backing #10 Ndola (1.5 win units), #11 Modown (0.5 win unit).

R10- Heart Of Glass will be looking to bring us home a winner. She has a great 1^st up record and with good speed in the race, will be charging home late. Harry Coffee has a great affinity with the mare winning on 3 occasions from 6 rides.

Dirty Grin was good on resumption and boasts a handy 2^nd up record, he also loves the 1200M trip.

Big Swinger is a winner of 50% of its races, gets a class drop and a decent barrier draw. The knock with it is it was plain late last start.

The Open goes well fresh and has excellent stats at the track and trip. Look for it late to be finishing hard at big odds.

Backing #16 Heart Of Glass (1.5 win units), #2 The Open (0.5 win unit).

R1-no exposed form, watching 2,1,6

R2-backing 4&9..1,13

R3-2,8,9,7 improver (tricky/tempo?)

R4-6xx,7,16,3

R5-open 7,11,12,9

R6-2,1,12,4

R7-12gv,saving 15,11,16

R8-3xxx best/day,5,1,10

R9-backing 10 and 11…1,7

R10-16x,9,1,2

Best of luck if you’re playing.

Early form shows strong runs at Pakenham with smart finishes. Racing Tips focus on pace and track. Listen to racing podcasts for insights on trends today form stats matter!!