Racing Tips: Cranbourne 22/11/2025

R4-3 best value play

R5-2

R6-5 best bet of the day

R7-8

R1 – No Bet

R2 – No Bet

R3 – #6 Black Peppermint (1.5 win units)

R4 – #3 Extreme Virtue (1.5 win units), #2 Merrigold (0.5 win unit)

R5 – #2 Big Sexy (2win units)

R6 – #5 Shockletz (3 win units)

R7 – #8 Sweethearted (2 win units)

R8 – #3 Air Assault (1.25 units), #7 Regal Zeus (0.25 units)

R9 – #3 Nadal (1.5 win units)

R10- #7 The Showvinist (0.5 win unit), #10 Midnight Devil (0.5 win unit)

TOTAL INVESTMENT – 14.5 units

R1– We kick off this bumper card with the Team Hayes resumer in Madiyya; this girl might be only small in stature, but she has a big motor and a serious will to win. In her first prep she only lost the one race which was her debut run where she was forced to go back from a wide barrier and then ran on well for 2^nd. She draws more favourably here, and I expect her to sit in the first half dozen and be strong late. The 1300M is perfect at this stage and her fitness levels are good judging by a recent jump out. The price is a tad skinny at present; I have her marker around the $3.50 mark.

Kahhof is the danger, he has had 2 runs back from a spell and should be in peak order, he has an excellent record 3^rd up, loves the trip and gets nice weight relief from Sheridan Clarke who is riding well.

Prince Tycoon is a promising horse who is well found by the market, I have a slight map concern about it from the barrier, if it overcomes that then its one of the main players.

Stealth Of Night is another Hayes runner who is a chance, it is progressing nicely and will be prominent from a handy draw.

Not much value on offer at present, will stay out at the current prices.

No Bet

R2- Another small field where luck will play a big part in deciding the result.

I like St Edward to come out on top, the step up to 1400M looks to be in his favour, Beau Mertens has a good affinity with the horse, he should get a lovely run just off the speed and he will be strong late.

Katsumi Orochi contested a Listed Race last start and had to go back from the draw and was good through the line late in the race. It will race closer here and an improved showing is expected.

Caffetiera and Maldini are also genuine winning chances in a race that doesn’t interest me greatly from a betting perspective.

No Bet

R3- Finally we get to have a bet, and I like the Payne trained Black Peppermint. This fella has had 3 build up runs in readiness for this and his recent effort showed that he is ready to produce his best. He is a winner when 4^th up, maps to get an economical run in transit, Luke Nolen is riding well, and the opposition is only moderate.

If there is a danger it will come from Hot Too Go, plenty of ticks for him, nicely bred, progressive, draws well, Williams to steer who knows him well, and the distance suits. The one negative is he is only 2 wins from 17 tries.

For exotic players, Mickio and Salsita are marked shorter than what is currently on offer.

Backing #6 Black Peppermint (1.5 win units)

R4- A small but competitive field of mares awaits us here and my best value play of the day is another Team Hayes first upper in Extreme Virtue. I like it when Williams stays with horses from this stable that he has previous experience with, and he has a great record with this girl – 5 rides, 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third. She also loves the distance, has handy returns when fresh and draws softly in barrier 2 where she will race on speed. The $13 currently on offer is far more than I have her priced.

Merrigold is another out of the market who is sure to run well, her run last Saturday was a complete forget, it was in a Group 3 event, and she drops sharply in grade here. I like her 3^rd up record, the nice draw and the small field are all in her favour, certainly worth a ticket as a saver.

A couple that are tight in the market, Grid Girl and Keep Your Cool, both horses with decent ability who can acquit themselves well. They don’t present any value to me, neither does Gumdrops who I am happy to oppose at the price.

Backing #3 Extreme Virtue (1.5 win units), #2 Merrigold (0.5 win unit)

R5- In a race of above average speed I really like the set up for Big Sexy. This lightly raced horse trained by Maddie Raymond should get all the favours just off the speed from its draw, he is racing in great heart, and its effort on Oaks Day to tough it out after a wide run was excellent. Barrier 5, the slight drop in distance, the race shape, are all massive pluses, I just hope that he doesn’t get any shorter than the $2.50 currently available.

Casino Showgirl has been spoken about as a horse of some talent, and she lived up to that promise when donkey licking a plain field at Gawler. This is a steep rise in class, but the stable should be resected when they throw one in at the deep end.

Astral Flame and Chest Of Gold are both handy gallopers who will provide much of the speed, if there is a bias towards on pace runners then they come into contention markedly.

Backing #2 Big Sexy (2win units)

R6- We head into the business end of the day and our best bet on the card stumps up here with Shockletz. She is another who went around on Oaks Day and I think she will have derived a heap of benefit from it given it was 5 weeks between runs. She drops slightly in class here, has a 50%-win strike rate, increases to a more suitable trip, will hopefully race a tad handier from the draw, the small field will suit and has some nice upside. Keen to be on her, I have her marked around $2.

Hurry Curry is the most prominent of her opposition, she drops significantly in weight from her last run, draws the inside, Williams to steer and is a 2^nd up winner. She will need to be in a hurry to catch Shockletz though.

Amberite can pull out a good run on his day, he should get a cosy run from the barrier and Stacky knows him well.

Bon Mistress is an enigmatic mare, and you need to be brave to back her, that said she was a big spruik last start in a Group 2 race where she settled back and didn’t threaten. She drops massively in class here and as they say, ‘where’s there’s smoke there’s fire’, so any market support should be monitored.

Backing #5 Shockletz (3 win units)

R7- We kick off the quaddy, and I like the Stokes trained Sweethearted. I think this gelding suffered a little from the old 2^nd up syndrome on Champions Day, it was tardy out, took a bit to get into its rhythm and didn’t really let down when needed. This race looks for more suitable, I think it sits around midfield with nice cover off a reasonable tempo and unleashes at the 150M to gather up the leaders. He likes the trip, Stacky has won on him, and the stable are going well.

Jasmin Rouge was outstanding when thrown in the deep end first up in the Autumn and then resumed with a below par effort at Caulfield. She is way better than that and won at her only other 2^nd up run, also the form lines around her early efforts are superior to most of these.

Yaldi has been good in both runs this time in and a win doesn’t look to be too far away. He is drawn well here and is a chance, my concern with him is 2 wins from 16 starts, is he a ‘gunna’ horse? I will be throwing him into my quaddy as insurance.

Mytemptation will lead and give a good sight, if left alone he prove tough to run down.

Backing #8 Sweethearted (2 win units)

R8- The race of the day, the Cranbourne Cup, and what a competitive edition we have this year.

Air Assault is my on top pick, he is racing in career best form, wins 50% of his races at 1600M, drawn to sit just behind the leaders getting a cozy run, Stubby Holder has won 9 races on him and knows him inside out. It was narrowly beaten in this race last year so he handles the track. Worth noting that Globe beat him last year who has since won a Group 1 race.

Sabaj won like a good horse last start and they have a big opinion of him, this is a step up in class but to counter that he has only had 7 starts and the best appears to be still in front of him. He will need to go back from the barrier but with good speed in the race he will get his chance to storm over the top of them.

Warnie returned to the winners list last start and can go on with it here, the stable are masters at targeting these types of races. A slight concern is that he is weighted poorly against some of his opposition, he is good enough to overcome that though.

Regal Zeus has won at this trip and when 3^rd up previously, at $67 he is a crazy price and must go into quaddies and exotics.

Backing #3 Air Assault (1.25 units), #7 Regal Zeus (0.25 units)

R9- The mighty Meteorite and they will go like the clappers here.

The way the race sets up will suit last suit last years winner Nadal. Whilst he hasn’t been going as well as he was last year, he has needed to work into fitness after 10 months between runs. He is a 3^rd up winner, Ethan Brown knows him well, Jigsaw and friends should set things up nicely for run on horses, and he is drawn to be plenty of air to sail down the outside.

Need Some Luck is ultra-consistent and a 6-time winner, he loves the 1200M, is drawn to have a few options and hasn’t finished worse than 2^nd in four 2^nd up runs. He will prove tough to beat.

Soft Love was excellent first up and was ok 2^nd up in a Group 3 race, she can improve here and is a hope at big odds.

Zou Sensation is honest and in career best form, he is always around the money.

Backing #3 Nadal (1.5 win units)

R10- The last on a big day of racing and a very open event presents itself.

The resuming Maher galloper Celerity comes out on top, she gets in with the limit weight, will be on pace and Carleen Hefel rides these types of horses well. The $4.40 is a touch on the short side though.

Codigo has been good in his 2 runs back from a spell, he is due for a change of luck and will benefit from the 3kg claim from Emily Pozman who rode a winner last Saturday in fine style.

The Showvinist is over the odds and may prove to be a good bet at the price; he loves the 1000M, fly’s 2^nd up, and the hectic pace will suit. Look for him late.

Harry Got Styles is a 5-time 1000M winner who is always thereabouts, he is also 2 from 2 at the track. Don’t dismiss him.

A knockout chance at huge odds is Midnight Devil, he has had a brief let up since his last run and did it easily when jumping out well last week, he is better than a $31 chance.

Backing #7 The Showvinist (0.5 win unit), #10 Midnight Devil (0.5 win unit)

R1-3x,1…6,7

R2-3,2 improver,7,8

R3-6x,7…rough hopes 9&11

R4-3x gv,2,7,1

R5-2xx,9,6,3

R6-5xxx best/day,8,2,7

R7-8xx,7,5,1

R8-3x,15,1,7 not hopeless

R9-3v,6,12,5

R10-open race 13,3,7v,4,10

Best of luck if you’re playing.