NRL Round 22 Preview by Dean McHugh

The Tigers are hoping to end a five-game slump on Thursday night as they welcome the Cowboys to Leichhardt Oval. Rooted to the foot of the standings, the Tigers have very little to play for other than pride, although they won’t be proud of their performances as of late.

For the Cowboys, they find themselves in somewhat of a precarious position as they are just two points off third spot but also two points above ninth placed Canberra. Therefore, every game feels like a must win for them right now. 

For that reason and the fact they are short-priced favourites, I’m not going to tip up the Cowboys, although I do think they’ll win. I think they could look to keep things tight early on and therefore I’m going for them to shut out the Tigers in the first ten minutes. The Tigers have been notoriously slow starters recently and they have only once scored a try in the opening ten minutes of a game in their previous five matches.

Bet – No Tigers Try Inside First Ten Minutes

The Warriors still have aspirations of playing playoff rugby this season, but if that’s to become a reality they will need to improve upon their consistency. Their opponents today haven’t had that issue. That’s because they have been consistently bad, losing 10 of their last 11, which includes the last six in a row.

However, they have a great recent record against the Warriors, having won four of the last five meetings against them. Therefore, I won’t be rushing out to get on the men from New Zealand at such short odds. One thing that both teams’ matches have been consistent in is fast starts, and I see this one following suit.

Bet – First Match Try Scored In The Opening 10 Minutes

The wheels have well and truly fallen off for the Dolphins in recent weeks and they find themselves clinging onto the final playoff spot with a pack of seven teams chasing them down. They’ve now lost four of their last five, but encouragingly for them the win did come at home to another team from Sydney in the form of the Rabbitohs. 

For the Roosters, things could not be any different for them as they’ve won five of their previous six, with their only blemish coming against table-toppers Melbourne. However, this is all reflected in the bookmakers odds, meaning I cannot tip up the Roosters. I also don’t think the Dolphins are a bad side, they’re just lacking confidence right now. 

One man who’s not lacking in confidence is Dominic Young for the Roosters. That’s because he’s scored in his last five in a row, and I see him going over the try line once again against a fragile Dolphins team.

Bet – Dominic Young To Score A Try

On paper this is probably the closest contest of the weekend as only points difference separate these two teams. However, one team is in the ascendancy having won four of their last five and one is in freefall having lost seven of their last eight. Given their postseason aspirations you could be forgiven for guessing which is which here. 

It feels like time is running out for the Broncos and their key to victory looks very different to that of the free flowing Titans. Brisbane will want to make this a gritty, physical match up and as such they could look to keep things tight. Also, given their poor form they will look to get back to basics and play low-risk rugby and finish their sets. So, don’t expect them to be throwing the ball around here. 

Bet – Broncos Under 28.5 Points

The Storm welcome the Dragons to Melbourne on Saturday, knowing a win for them will take them a step closer in their pursuit of securing top spot in the standings. After winning their previous seven in a row, they will have every confidence of making that a reality.

The Visitors are on the cusp of the playoffs, but their inconsistent form is doing them no favours in securing a spot. In their last six games, they have alternated wins with losses, highlighting their form. However, they will want that run to continue, having lost to Penrith last time out.

But as well as facing the team in the top spot, history is against them here too, having lost five of their last six against the Storm and losing their last six straight in Melbourne. Therefore, there is no doubt in my mind that the Storm will win this one. However, I’m not sure if they will win by 20 points, which they would need to do to cover the handicap. I expect them to score quite a few points, and that means Grant Anderson could easily get on the scoresheet once again, as he has in his last three outings.

Bet – Grant Anderson To Score A Try

Although 11 places separate these two teams in the standings, current form suggests this could be closer than some may think. That’s because after losing to the Cowboys last week, it now means the Sharks have lost four of their last five, and their chances of a home draw in the playoffs are beginning to fade.

After a dreadful start the Rabbitohs are beginning to creep closer to a playoff berth but they probably need to win five of their last eight to stand a chance of doing so. Therefore, a win here is crucial. And history could be on their side which is not something many can say when facing Cronulla. That’s because the away team on the day has won the last four straight between these two. 

That added to the fact that South Sydney’s only defeat away to Cronulla in their last four visits came by a single point means I’m going to take the Rabbitohs with the handicap to win this one.

Bet – Rabbitohs +10.5 To Win

The Panthers and the Knights appears to be a very one-sided contest at first glance and to be honest it’s very hard to argue a case against that. That’s because nine places separate them in the standings, the Panthers have much better form coming into this one having won five of their last six and they have won the previous six meetings between the two of them.

However, I’m not convinced they will win by 19, so I will look elsewhere for my pick here. I think the Knights will look to slow the game right down here and make this a very dogged affair. Therefore, I’m going to tip up unders for Penrith in the team totals. Despite their good form, they have only once gone over the total set here in their last seven, and the Knights have only conceded above this total once in their previous five.

Bet – Panthers Under 32.5 Points

Only two points separate these two teams so I’m struggling to see why the home side are such clear favourites in this one. Granted, they have won three of their last four, but the Raiders come into this one having won their previous two. They have also won nine of the previous ten contests between these two, including their last three visits to the Belmore Sports Ground.

Everyone knows the Bulldogs are formidable at home, but perhaps the Raiders are their kryptonite, so to speak. They have also only won their last three home matches by margins of four points and twice by margins of one point after extra time. Take the Raiders with the handicap to come away with the spoils.

Bet – Raiders +8.5 To Win

Bet of the Week – Broncos Under 28.5 Points (Versus Titans)

Value of the Week – Rabbitohs +10.5 To Win (Versus Sharks)