Mick’s Mail: Pakenham

R1- Proceedings kick off with a 5-furlong flash, and what an open race it is. I like Philosopher, Sheridan Clarke’s claim will assist greatly to offset its large impost, hopefully she can get him to settle and get a few cheap sectionals.

Mafia might be the danger down from the Snowden Sydney stable, he goes well fresh, and the team have an excellent record when travelling horses.

Simple Times will settle back and need luck getting through the field, if the runs appear he can reel off quick late sectionals. He could be the knockout at good odds.

Lazy Susan is an honest mare who is always around the money and can run in the money.

No Bet

R2- Grinzinger Pod was an excellent win at the midweeks recently and there is no reason why she can’t repeat the dose here. The draw and map look to suit perfectly, the $6.50 is massive overs to my eye.

Sweethearted looks a nice type, its consecutive 2nds to kick off his career supports a nearby win. The Stokes/Stackhouse combo are flying at present and should be respected.

Romani Ite Domum is a chance although he doesn’t represent value in my opinion. His last run showed that he may benefit from a let up.

Princess Montecito went to Wodonga first up for a confidence boosting experience and can go on with it at double figure odds.

Backing #3 Grinzinger Pod

R3- The lightly race, impressive mare Samangu should be too classy here. The way it has won its 2 races since resuming suggests she should have little trouble progressing through her classes. One of her big positives is her ability to sprint off a positive position, that should occur here.

Sisterhood should be ready to improve here, reports were that she would need the run first up. They were very conservative early in that race and her last 200M was very good, she is unbeaten 2^nd up, if the fave is vulnerable then Sisterhood is the one.

Moody maintained Paradise City would benefit from its resuming effort and has good ability on her day, she can figure in the minor end of the placings.

Subliminal has never missed a place 2^nd up, is drawn well and is also some hope.

Backing #10 Samangu

R4- A 2500M lottery here and not a race I can get overly excited about.

Mathew goes ok, will get the trip, Tom Prebble’s claim is a massive help and the Payne’s will have him rock hard fit. Recent efforts show that he’s not far away from winning a race like this, at $14 it’s worth a speck.

Divus Romulus is ready now after 3 good efforts back from a spell, he can certainly win although $2.70 is too skinny for me.

Duke Of Condicote gets the Maher polish, drawn to get a cushy run, Safie Osborne rides well and will be a contender.

Stablemate Lodbrok is also some hope at odds.

Small play #1 Mathew

R5- Deakin is an excellent bet here, he was hampered first up and quickly regained his composure to finish off well, if he has taken no ill effects then he will go very close here. The $6 seems very appealing.

Saban has had excuses lately and can improve here, his last effort was very good in a race where the shape wasn’t suitable. I think these 2 will fight out the finish.

Actaeon won well last start and will run the trip right out, Shinn goes on and Symon Wilde has a good knack of keeping horses in form once they’ve found it.

Dublin Journal got things to suit last start and took full advantage, he is racing in career best form, he can continue in that vein.

Backing #2 Deakin

R6- The exciting mare Oh Too Good is the bet of the day, I have her marked well into the red. Plenty of ticks for mine; map, barrier, track experience, and untapped ability. Most of these have found their level and she is still on an upward spiral.

Running By is the only danger, she is back in form after a setback midway through this prep, her issue will be the start she has to give Oh Too Good.

Trifecta spots can be filled by either Modown or Kahhof.

Betting up on #7 Oh Too Good

R7- Nation’s Call can return to the winners list here, Shinn has an excellent record on him, he loves the trip and won his only start at the Pakenham 1600M.

Smokin’ Princess returned in good fashion, she has won 2^nd up previously, boasts an excellent record at the mile and has a very handy overall record (6 wins from only 15 tries). If they go hard early look for her to be steaming over the top of them.

Both Matron Bullwinkle and Nana’s Wish have historical numbers that if repeated will have them more than competitive.

Cawdor can pull out a big run fresh, Busuttin/Young target these types at these trips first up, if its fancied in the betting then don’t have it as a loser.

R8- I’ve settled on the resuming veteran Munhamek here, he has an excellent fresh record, loves the 1400M, gets the right race shape and Billy Egan is 2 from 2 on him. I usually wouldn’t tip 9yo horses but I think he has another good race in him, last prep he finished just behind a recent Group 1 winner. He’s the perfect 1×3 play at the $27 & $6.

Tuvalu is a proven group horse who will be better after 2 runs back from a let up, he has an outstanding record at this third run in and is ready to fire here.

Nadal went like a jet last start and if he runs up to that, could blow them away again, my query with him is he rarely puts 2 runs together, if he does then look out!!

Arkansaw Kid is racing well and is a chance, he has been up for a while and may appreciate softer ground.

Just Folk could sprint well fresh and may be a smokey.

Backing #2 Munhamek

R9- I found this a difficult race to be confident with. I’ve settled on Strawberry Rock to improve on its indifferent last start effort, in a race of many chances he could be a bet at around $12.

Goldman is an interesting runner, he is the X factor in the race who can improve lengths on recent efforts, he has had some issues the last few preps and if he’s right can shake the life out of this.

Muramassa is hard fit now and ready to fire, Shinn goes on, gets a good map, and has figured well around this class during the last 12 months. That said, I would need $4.50+ to entertain backing him.

I fancied Shaiyhar last start, and its run was too bad to be true, if you can forgive it that run then it’s a chance here.

Small plays #6 Strawberry Rock and #5 Goldman

R10- We wind up the day with Helix, he is suited on the 7-day return, flies 3^rd up, loves the track and gets an in-form Craig Williams to steer. Plenty of positives to make him a bet.

Is It Me will prove the testing material, whilst he hasn’t won this time in, he has performed creditably albeit without much luck. I see him getting a perfect drag into it and unleashing at the 200M, hopefully he gets the gaps he needs to be unimpeded.

Global Harmony is the massive query, this horse had horrible barrier manners back in Hong Kong, hopefully Team Hayes has remedied that trait. The horse has very good ability, if he jumps cleanly then he could be too good for them.

Pal D’oro is a horse I’ve always liked; he can improve dramatically on recent efforts and is better than a $34 chance.

Backing #15 Helix

R2-3

R3-10

R5-2

R6-7 best bet of the day

R4-1

R8-2 best value play of the day

R1-very open 1,7,10 improver,5

R2-3xx,8,1,11

R3-10xx,7…8,2

R4- tough race 1 value,7,6,9 

R5-2xx,7..10,1

R6-7xxx best/day….6…3,5

R7-3x,9…15,16,6??

R8-2xx great value,8,6,1,5

R9-6,5,3,7

R10-15x,8,7??,4 improver

Best of luck if you’re playing.