Mick’s Mail: Flemington 2/11/2024

Race 1- We kick off with the Carbine Club Stakes, a race where we have seen some of the past winners propel from winning this to succeeding at the highest level.

Feroce is unlikely to be a group 1 horse although its set up here has it well on top. Its past 2 runs have shown that it’s in peak form and at its 4^th run in should be primed to win.

Last start Waller trained winner Aeliana is a filly taking on the boys here and she looks to have above average ability on what we have seen in her short career, JMac to ride is a big help.

Aeliana’s stablemate Canara could be the ‘smokey’, although she is 10 start maiden, things might be starting to click with her. If there is speed that isn’t apparent at this stage, then she could be the one zooming home.

Another Prophet is another who would appreciate a good pace and can figure.

No Bet (no value)

Race 2- What a lottery we have here ladies and gents, an $8 favourite when I did the form gives you some insight into the difficulty.

I’ve gone looking wide with Benagil, she was ridden a little too close last start and I’m hoping they will settle around midfield here. With the right run and decent speed, I see her unleashing down the middle of the track and at $21 she is worth the risk.

The unbeaten Extremely Hardys has been very good at her two starts, this is a slightly harder assignment, but she is drawn to get a soft run and has good and wet form already, a good sign of her adaptability.

Another Waller trained runner Good Sort was a month between runs last start and copped severe interference, she is beautifully bred and the last run would have topped her off nicely.

Shinn had the pick of several rides and selected Matisse, that alone, should be respected and if there is good pace she will finish strongly.

The emergency Jellicious is a nice filly, if she gets a run, then she should be considered.

Backing #11 Benagil each way

Race 3- Another tricky race with plenty of varying form lines.

Charm Stone comes out on top for me. She returned after more than a year off (knee op) and stormed home late after being ridden quietly early. She is unbeaten 2^nd, has an explosive turn of foot and if she gets the breaks from the 400M then she will prove the testing material. A fabulous bet at the $12 currently on offer.

Rey Magnerio is another who gets back and storms home, he’s never missed a place at the track and Jye McNeil has an imposing record on this fella.

Schwarz is a very good horse, winning 50% of his races, he will be somewhere in the finish for sure.

Star Patrol flies down the Flemington straight and has the stats to support that, him winning won’t surprise.

You could pick another 5 hopes and still miss the winner given the quality of this field.

Backing #12 Charm Stone

Race 4- In contrast to the previous races there appears to only be a few chances here.

I’ve got Another Wil in front of Jimmysstar purely because of race shape.

Another Wil is mapped to be a few lengths in front of his main rival and as the breaks appear at the top of the straight he should explode away from the field.

Jimmysstar is airborne at present and the obvious danger. One of these 2 horses should win.

The only fly in the ointment is Tamerlane, if the track has a crazy leaders bias then he could lead them a merry dance and prove hard to run down.

Age Of Kings is a massive query runner, its run first up had plenty of merit and he could be the blowout here.

Mighty Ulysses was great first up but can play up if the tempo doesn’t suit. He has undeniable ability though; I just don’t think this race shape will suit…

Backing #2 Another Wil

Race 5- Powers Of Opal stands out here, she has progressed perfectly for this event and will go onto the Oaks next Thursday. She should be too good for them here.

If there is a danger it will come from her stablemate Inevitable Truth. At her last run she got left flat footed when they sprinted, but 50M out she got into full stride and finished off beautifully. I expect her to be winding up late here and a huge force next week.

Treasurethe Moment will race handy and prove hard to run down, she is in peak form and if there is an on-pace bias then it will assist her greatly.

Jenni’s Meadow is the only other hope to my eye and can fill a place.

Backing #5 Powers Of Opal, saving on #10 Inevitable Truth

Race 6- The flying filly Bellatrix Star is a great chance of beating the boys here. She has taken everything before her this prep and maps to great a perfect run to finish over the top of them, she is all class.

Switzerland is a class animal, his win last start showed that. He’s had an easier run into this having missed The Everest, that could play handsomely into his favour.

The impressive Growing Empire will be the testing material, I suspect they will sit off them and not look to charge up on pace here, if they do that then he is a great chance.

First Settler has done everything asked of him in his first prep, he could very well be the best horse out of this race into the future, fifth run in is my query with him but he could finish over the top of them late.

Backing #14 Bellatrix Star and saving on #5 Switzerland

Race 7- The time-honoured Victoria Derby and I’m liking the lightly raced Kingofwallstreet. This son of Dundeel might have arrived here with the freshest legs and adaptability. He showed last start that he can reel off a nice sprint and that could be the tonic given the right run, I’m banking on Micky Dee providing that.

King Of Thunder is its main danger, he has been prepared to the minute for this race, gets the coveted rails draw and JMac.

China Sea was a great run behind Kindofwallstreet last start, I like his lead in here and his trainer has a knack of getting 3yo’s right for staying tests. He’s better than a $17 chance.

Red Aces was fabulous last start and must go in, he had plenty of favours last start and looks to get another cushy run, he will be thereabouts.

El Castello has undeniable claims given his recent Sydney form, I can’t back him though, 5^th run in, a 7 day back up, and barrier 18. Happy to risk him.

Backing #6 Kingofwallstreet and #8 King Of Thunder

Race 8- Wow, talk about tough, this is another curly one.

Orchestral is the one I’ve plonked on here, she has very good ability on her day, had no luck last start, and will have energy stores as a result. I particularly like the booking of Zahra; I think he will suit her perfectly. This isn’t the greatest ‘group 1’ race, and she has won group 1’s both here and in NZ.

Plenty Of Ammo is flying at present, last start she went like a jet late to win a group 2 race, I can’t see any reason why she can’t progress here. Her record of 5 wins from 7 starts only tells a part of her story, as a 6yo mare and after overcoming issues earlier in her career, points to there still being untapped potential.

The WA mare Alsephina was enormous behind Antino last start, she is knocking on the door of a big race victory.

Atishu is racing well in the class and races best at this track.

Kimochi, Socks Nation and Lady In Pink should all go in the quaddy in this lottery race.

Backing #3 Orchestral and #13 Plenty Of Ammo

R9- We must wait for the last for my bet of the day in the shape of Sans Doute. This mare loves the Flemington straight (5 starts, 4 wins) and has had 2 goes for 2 wins at the 1100M here. Back on top of the ground which she loves and in a race where there are many who need to step up several levels to what she has already achieved. The $6 to me is a gift, I have her marked half that price.

Pharari is rapidly progressing through her grades and could be hardest to beat, she should get the right run here.

Cigar Flick is an interesting runner, she usually performs well fresh and had a nice tick over trial in QLD in readiness for this, $21 seems over the odds.

Isthmus was disappointing last start and is she returns to her best can be competitive.

Rough chances to A little Deep, Kundalini, Wanda Rox (if leaderish) and Pondalowie

Backing #3 Sans Doute

R1-1,6,7,8

R2-11v,13,9,7,(17)

R3-12gv,11,6,1

R4-2x,5,3,11

R5-5xx,saving 10…2,1

R6-14x,5,1,6

R7-6v,8,11,2

R8-3,13,7,1, (quaddie chances 6,10&12)

R9-3xxx,15,10,1

R9-3

R2-11

R3-12 best value of the day

R6-14

R7-6

Suggested Bet (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 12

Return – 21.6

ROI +80%

Bets – 40

Return – 36.45

ROI -8.88%

Best of luck if you’re playing.