Mick’s Mail: Caulfield 5/04/2025

R1- We kick off proceedings with a 2yo race of minimal exposed form.

From what we have seen, Scenic Point is the obvious standout, its win on debut showed she has above average ability and there doesn’t appear to be any real concerns from those who have raced.

Skjaldmo looked good in its preparatory work and should be respected, she is a half sister to a very good one in Hanseatic. If she has any of her sibling’s ability, then it will hold her in good stead.

Latin Boss kicked off his career in a stronger race than this and was quickly tipped out, he will have benefited from that experience and should be considered, especially if there is market support.

Aleppo Pine was sent to Sydney to contest a tough race, he wasn’t disgraced in that event and returns here dropping in grade, he won’t be far away.

Backing #6 Scenic Point

R2- Heart Of Glass is clearly on top here. This progressive mare went super when resuming on this track, she is drawn to get the right run, is a 2^nd up winner, and Harry Coffey has a good record on her. I also like the 3 weeks off between runs, she is testing material.

Hennessy Lad resumes and has won twice previously when fresh. Given the right run and some luck in the straight, I see him flashing at them late. At $26 he is worth a small ticket.

Laa De Sha also resumes and boasts a good record winning 5 times from 11 starts. He is another who will need some luck in the straight as he settles back in his races; he is drawn well and the 3kg claim will be a big benefit, look for him late.

Prancing Spirit should be rock hard fit now and his best runs are when having his fourth run in which he is having here. He has a sticky barrier though, if he can get a good run in transit then he will go close.

Backing #9 Heart Of Glass

R3- After a couple of key scratching’s, Just Glamorous is the one they will have to beat, she will most probably cross to the rail from her barrier and look to slow things down mid race. Should she get her own way in front then the Waterhouse/Bott conditioning will have her very hard to get past. I don’t want to take less than $3.50 though, a price I doubt she will get to now.

Charming Deel is suited at the distance, if they overcook it up front she could be the one storming home.

Electric Belle and Pink Chandon are also chances in a race that I probably won’t be getting involved in.

No Bet

R4- Another open race and I’m hoping the 2^nd emergency Nearing Liberty gets a run. This lightly raced son of Impending looks to have come back in very good order judging on his recent jump out effort. He has a good affinity with the rack, draws perfectly, and is a first up winner. The $16 currently on offer looks fabulous, we just need a couple of scratching’s, fingers crossed.

Should our top pick not get a run then the Waller trained Pure Alpha will progress up the list. This fella is unbeaten 2^nd up, loves the 1400M and rarely runs a bad race. The barrier is a concern, Jye McNeil will have to be at his best, if so then he should prove tough to beat.

Grid Girl from Team Hayes is another who loves this trip being a 3-time winner from 5 tries. Her recent run wasn’t a true indication of her ability, she will be far better suited back in distance from a good barrier.

Hughes is a horse I like a lot; he is lightly raced due to some injury issues and hopefully they are behind him now. His record supports his good ability, given only having 13 starts. He has drawn the car park here and will obviously need a heap of luck, if he gets it then look out, he will be right there at the finish.

Backing #17 Nearing Liberty

R5- The days best bet arrives here in the shape of Statuario, this fella was very good last start in a race several grades harder than this. During his career he has been thought highly enough by his team to contest races against some of the best in his age group. The drop-in class, his perfect draw, and his 3 runs in, have him ready to peak here and I think he will be winning.

Red Aces is ready for the 2400M trio now, he ran a very creditable race in the VRC Derby at 2500M so the trip should pose no issues. If there is a danger I’d lean towards him.

Motiver is stoutly bred and his 4 runs point to this trip no problem. He had a recent jog around in a barrier trial to keep his fitness levels up and if there is a blowout then he might provide it.

Politely Dun had a similar campaign to Red Aces last time in and he should be nearing peak fitness also.

Backing #2 Statuario

R6- In an open race I’ve settled on Burlington Gate. This beautifully bred mare loves the 2000M, track conditions are perfect, and Declan Bates knows her very well. The $13 that was put up early seemed well over the odds and the smart money has played her into the $8 mark. Hope their confidence is as justified as mine. Also, for those unfamiliar with the trainer Glen Thompson, he is now head trainer for Team Maroney after the sad passing of Mike, he is an excellent horseman and will carry on Mike’s legacy well.

The Japanese bred Mozu Marcassin has settled in well to the Australian training systems and like most of the breed have excellent stamina. He is now going for 4 on end and his recent efforts in slightly weaker grade show that he is well up to the class rise. He gets in with no weight after Logan Bates’ claim and he will run well again.

Kings Valley is racing very well this preparation, the distance will pose no problem, and he benefits from the 3kgs off for Luke Cartwright. He’s sure to run well.

My Brothers Keeper can reel off a quick sectional but finds it hard to win, this race sets up nicely for him and he could surprise them late in the piece.

Backing #11 Burlington Gate

R7- The first-upper Lovelycut will be hard to beat here. This filly performs well when fresh and her recent jump out showed that she has returned in great shape, easily accounting for the work. I believe she will settle more forward than some maps are saying and that will prove the winning formula.

Chewing Gum will have improved substantially off its first up run and can run well here. During its previous campaign she put in nice runs behind horses that are better than this lot. The $12 seems appealing and is worth saving on.

Certain Rise is another who has performed well against classy opposition including a half length defeat at the hands of the very good horse Lofty Arch. She will need luck from a poor barrier but must go into the quaddy numbers.

Mckeyla is racing extremely well albeit without any luck last start, from a better draw here she should be thereabouts.

Backing #4 Lovelycut

R8- An extremely open race awaits us here and its no surprise that the favourite is around the $6 mark.

I’m going for the experienced Future History predominately on its superior form at the distance and its cushy barrier draw. Ciaron Maher has a fabulous knack of having these types of horses ready when it matters and there is a sense of timing with this fella.

Que Tempesta has always had a bit of a spruik about him, this race will suit, and it is a huge drop in grade from what he has contested since arriving in Oz. Like Maher, the Hayes boys also target these types of races with horses that aren’t quite up to the gold standard. Watch for him at juicy odds.

Cilacap is flying at present as is the Grahame Begg stable, she is a 3yo filly taking on much more seasoned horses and will have to go to another level to win this. That said, the stable doesn’t step them up in grade for the fun of it and she has real talent.

Matusalem is primed for this and can run a cheeky race, Waller is another with the uncanny of having them peak when its needed, don’t discount him here.

Backing #1 Future History

R9- Another $6 the field tricky event.

I’ve gone looking for value and found the resuming Riot And Rose. She is a two-time winner first up, draws nicely in 2, Linda Meech has a good record on her, and the 1400M is perfect whilst fresh. Another bonus is the $17 currently on offer, my kind of price in this type of event.

Miss Aria is a very good mare on her day, she is ready to peak here and has an excellent record at the Caulfield 1400M. Don’t leave her out.

Nicolini Vito went well first up albeit without being given much of a chance. He is drawn to have more room which will assist greatly, he has a big chance.

Globe is a big striding on pace horse who resumes, if allowed to get an easy time in front, he will prove hard to run down. Should there be any signs of an on pace bias early in the day it wouldn’t surprise me if he started favourite, currently $13.

Backing #14 Riot And Rose and #13 Miss Aria (half unit each)

R10- The lucky last and it will be if the very nicely priced Falcon Of Malta can win for us. He is currently $31, I know I had to double check, I’ve got it marked in single figures. I think it has enough ticks to label it my best value runner on the card. Excellent win/place strike rate, drawn well, handles softish tracks, races well first up, has won at the distance at its only try and ran 2^nd at its only venture to Caulfield. I also love middle distance horses first up at 1400M. Loading up each way.

Elouyou was excellent last start giving nothing else a chance. He has always had good ability and put it all together to defy a betting drift. He may be ready to go right on with it here.

Angland showed good promise early and was only fair first up, he can improve dramatically on that here.

Modown has a victory of the smart Running By, a repeat of that will take him a long way towards winning here.

Backing #13 Falcon Of Malta

R1-6

R2-9

R5-2 best bet of the day

R4-17

R9-14

R10-13 best value of the day

R1-6xx,8??,4 improver?,1

R2-9xx,6,1,3

R3-13,5,2,14

R4-17x gv,3,9,2

R5-2xxx best/day,1,7,3

R6-11,10,2,9

R7-4x,10,3,5

R8-1,2,10,8

R9-14v,13,12,4

R10-13xx gv,9,12,1

Best of luck if you’re playing.