Micks Caulfield Tips 12/07/2025

R1-limited exposed form, raced 2,1, big watch 6???, unraced 10

R2-5v,7,6,4

R3-3xxx best/day,4,2,6

R4-2x,1,8,7 no value

R5-3v improver,5,2,7

R6-open 8,6,1,14

R7-7x,2,3,10

R8-6xx,10,1 knockout,3

R9-7xx great value play,15,19,6,1 not hopeless

A 2yo sprint race kicks off proceedings with limited exposed form and several first starters. Signature Scent and Gin Spirit look to have the best credentials of those to have raced, of the unraced brigade Castellito is beautifully bred and has been prepped well.

One to keep an eye on is the Phillip Stokes trained Shystar, she had one start in her initial campaign and went ok. I respect them when they return after an ‘educational’ preparation, they can improve markedly off that, and any market moves should be monitored closely as this stable like to have a bet.

No Bet

I like the resuming Stay Humble here around the $15 mark. The quick pace of this race will assist this run on galloper who has had a stable change from the Corstens/Larkin team to Ciaron Maher. He is a first up winner, will be strong late, and Ben Allen knows him well. He’s a nice bet in a race of a few hopes.

Shadhavar has good numbers in races of a slightly better grade than this, she is a deserved favourite albeit a tad short at present. One slight concern is she has never won when fresh, although has run some decent races. She maps perfectly here.

Brandjam and Scampi are others who can figure in an open race.

Backing #5 Stay Humble (1 win unit)

My best bet of the day presents here with Xarpo. Her first up run showed she has come back an even more furnished filly, sitting outside a moderate lead, sprinting to the front, and holding them off to score. She will tighten up even more from that and a repeat effort has her winning.

Illyivy wasn’t suited by the tempo behind Xarpo last start and did well to finish second. She is ultra-consistent, and the extra trip will suit. She will need a tad more pace for her to get one back over main rival and last start nemesis here, if they overcook it up front then she could be too strong late.

Supercilious might have only won one of eleven but she has above average ability. She may get buried back on the fence from the draw and need luck, but will run the trip right out.

Mercurial Lady should lead and can give a sight, I think Xarpo will sit on her and have her measure though.

Backing #3 Xarpo (2.5 win units)

The in-form Jimmy The Bear should justify his short quote and be too good for this lot. He has gone to a new level this campaign and at this weight scale should be a moral. I couldn’t take $1.60 about him though; he will be winning without me taking part.

If there is a danger it may come from Pounding, whilst he hasn’t won for some time he does have a touch of class about him. Strangely enough he is very tight in the market too, thus demonstrating the oppositions lack of depth.

Boga Legend and Chihuly are place chances in a race where the best strategy will be to have tea n scones.

No Bet

I’ve gone looking outside the market in a race where the winner won’t be winning too many more Saturday grade races after this one. The horse I am having a small wager on is Cachink, he will need a little bit of luck from a sticky barrier and if he produces his best he can account for this lot. If you go back to his win at Moonee Valley last November, he was made to do a ton of work in the run and toughed it right out to record a good victory. He’s now had 3 runs back, is hard fit and has fitness reserves off his last run where he had no luck. The $14 appears over the odds by my reckoning.

Verona Rupes from the Payne yard will peak here and should be in the finish, he was run over late last start and that run should have topped him off for this. He will be in the finish somewhere.

Stop The Rock, Verona Rupes stablemate is going for 3 on the trot and can win again on his current form. That said, he has the impost of 60kgs and a wide barrier to contend with.

Mometz is a lightly raced gelding who is looking for this trip now, expect a forward showing from him.

Backing #3 Cachink (1 win unit)

This is one of the most open races I have seen in some time, tipping it could be $7 the field at jump time. I have Kahhof on top, hopefully they take a sit just off the lead from its handy barrier, this will give him the best chance of winning. Keep Your Cool is the rightful favourite and is a winner, she has a very tricky gate to overcome, if she can get some luck then she is the one to beat. Rhapsody Chic has a touch of class and can run a cheeky race a good odds. It also has a wide barrier although its racing pattern will have him settle in the back half of the field and look to whiz home late. The claim for Logan Bates is a big plus too.

Willmott won nicely on the ‘synth’ at Pakenham recently at $21, he is a similar price here and may surprise again.

This could be a field job to kick your quaddies off, a deadest lottery.

No Bet

Rheinberg ran a cheeky race for us last start at huge odds, he looked the winner at the 250M mark but sadly his condition just gave out a fraction late. He is hard fit now, has excellent stats at the track/trip and we get $10. A bet every day.

St Lawrence is a new addition to the Bedggood team, and he has been having good success when buying these types of tried horses. At his best he would give this lot something to worry about, hopefully his recent change of environment has done the trick. He has raced in the best of company during his career and is worth a small ticket at the $20 on offer.

Yellow Sam gets in great after the claim and is flying lately, look for him late.

Zou Sensation is drawn to get the right run and is racing well, throw him in your multis.

Backing #7 Rheinberg (1 win unit), #2 St Lawrence (0.5 win unit)

The Sydney visitor In Flight is in career best form and will be extremely hard to topple here. Joe Pride has been targeting the Melbourne winter races with some of his team, especially those fond of affected surfaces. This mare loves a wet deck, the 1100M is her pet trip and she is a deadest winner. Anything around the $3 mark makes her a great bet.

New York Lustre is another mare who never runs a bad race, her astute mentor Enver Jusufovic has spaced her runs for optimum results, evidenced by her going for her sixth straight win here. She should get a lovely cart into the race from a soft draw and provide the toughest opposition to In Flight.

Lim’s Kosciuszko has had 2 runs since arriving in Oz from Singapore and both have had merit. He is a winner of 22 races and $4.3M, he will lead and give a sight at good odds.

Kallos resumes for James Cummings and can pull out a big run fresh, don’t dismiss him.

Backing #6 In Flight (2 win units)

A cracking value play winds out our day in the shape of Hard To Cross. His two runs back from a spell have both had excuses and provide excellent grounding for this task. First up he was $81 and struck in a pack where he struggled to get any clear running. Last start he was caught wide with little cover and toughed it out well to only be beaten a touch over 4 lengths. A lesser horse would’ve dropped right out. The pattern here should have him sitting around midfield, hopefully with some nice cover and be finishing off strongly late. He has had 3 tries 3^rd up for 2 wins and a 3^rd. The $26 on offer is luxurious and I’m playing him each way.

British Columbia is also 3^rd up and ready to produce his best. He has great stats at the track/trip and 3^rd up, the stable is flying too.

Sir Atlas was good when resuming, he reacts 2^nd up, gets in under the limit after Houston’s claim and is a live chance.

Bright Stripes isn’t hopeless, I’ve liked his efforts recently and could be a sneaky blowout at juicy odds. He hails from a very good stable in Mark Walker’s.

Taramansour will be getting home late in the race at cricket score odds and should go into your exotics.

Backing #7 Hard To Cross (1 win unit, 2 place units)