Gold Coast  v Brisbane Rd 20

Saturday, July 26 – 1.20 PM AEST – Venue: People First Stadium

Gold Coast were soft last week, after a great win over Collingwood the week before and they come up against a strong Brisbane unit all over the ground. They need their forwards to get supply and then kick straight. To go goalless in the first half against Freo was embarrassing. Hardwick will have sat them down within 24 hours and given them the facts – if you want to play finals you have to bring the pressure every week.  

Sam Collins and Lachie Weller will return but Rioli will be missed for his dash and decision making off half back. Nick Holman could be recalled to keep the pressure on Zorko in the Suns forward half. Brisbane will be keen to win to help them ensure a top 4 spot in the finals, and possibly top two for a home final.

The midfield battle will be interesting with Hugh McCluggage who is in great form picking up a game high 18 contested possessions last week, alongside Dunkley 28 disposals, Will Ashcroft, Lachie Neale and Jaspa Fletcher. They will be taking on Rowell, Noah Anderson, Brayden Fiorini and Sam Flanders, who are tough and creative, but the Suns will miss the experience of Touk Miller who is still out with a hamstring injury.

Brisbane are moving the ball quickly and giving their forwards excellent opportunities to score goals.

Brisbane by 25 points

There’s something compelling about the Gold Coast Suns snapping their impressive home streak in Round 20, delivering a stirring defeat to the Brisbane Lions. The Suns piled on 20.10 (130) while Brisbane could manage just 9.10 (64) at People First Stadium on July 26, 2025 a statement win that even the staunchest Lions fans had to acknowledge.

From the first bounce, Gold Coast seemed utterly in command extending their lead dramatically each quarter. They climaxed the match with a commanding 66-point margin, a result that shocked many and shook up the ladder landscape. The Suns’ precision in front of goal an impressive 20.10 – spoke volumes about their composure on a big day, while Brisbane’s 9.10 tally hinted at inefficiency and missed opportunities.

If you were mulling over AFL Prediction or looking for AFL Betting Tips, this one might’ve thrown you for a loop. Pre-match models, like those from Stats Insider, had tipped Brisbane with about a 59% win probability, only for the Suns to turn the narrative on its head. It’s a reminder that footy simulations can guide us but the ball’s bounce and team momentum tell the real story when the whistle blows.

Here are a couple of AFL Tips and takeaways for future match prep:

Home advantage truly matters – Gold Coast’s dominance at People First was evident, especially when momentum favours them early.

Don’t rely solely on predictive percentages. Models like those from Stats Insider provide context but always account for form, motivation, and recent performance shifts.

Keep an eye on efficiency: The Suns’ accurate goal-kicking under pressure rewarded their performance; Brisbane’s missed shots amplified costs.

So when crafting your own AFL Betting Tips, it pays to blend both the data’s insight and the human element such as team spirit, momentum, and situational context. Numbers are a starting point, but the match day magic or mayhem usually writes the final score.

Looking ahead, even Brisbane’s response against Collingwood at the MCG showed they’re far from down and out, regaining form and belief. So whether you’re drafting your next AFL Prediction or offering your own AFL Betting Tips, remember: it’s not just what the numbers say it’s how the players deliver on the ground.