Flemington Racing Tips 19/07/2025

R7-14

R8-7 Best of the day

R9-12

R2-5

R1- The day commences with some nice horses, and the market has this one pretty spot on. As a result, there isn’t much value for us, so I’ll probably be staying out.

I think Duchess Zou probably wins with Harry’s Yacht being its main danger.

Duchess Zou has shown nice versatility in her short career thus far; she has raced both on pace and come from back in the field. Her finishing splits last start were very impressive and will hold her in good stead here. She is clearly on top for me although I can’t take $1.85 at her 5^th start in a very short first prep. She is also taking of the colts n geldings which can be problematic.

Harry Yacht is racing very well this time in; he has paid for those efforts with a hefty 60kg impost but is racing too well to not be considered a leading chance.

Legacy Bay was good when winning last start and is a minor chance, as is Just For Show who has ability, although is finding it hard to win at present.

No Bet

R2- A small field and not much exposed form, that said, I really liked the effort of Frankie’s Boy when debuting. This son of Frankel appeared to only grind out its finish at Newcastle, the rider reported post-race that he didn’t enjoy the heavy surface that day. The transition from 1300M out to 1800M will suit immensely and the Waterhouse/Bott team would have identified the trip being perfect for a late season 2yo. The $10 appeals for a nice value play.

Bayou Music showed last start that he is looking for an increase in journey, he will run the trip right out.

Arcora and Zuppa Inglese are others with claims.

Backing #5 Frankie’s Boy (1.5 win units)

R3- This is a race where I found the favourites to be skinny in the market and went looking for those chances that offered some value with excellent prospects.

The first of those is Moonlight Circus. This lightly raced filly returned in nice fashion when winning on the synthetic at Pakenham, she settled off them and was too strong late in the race. The increase in trip will suit perfectly and the $12 appeals.

My other bet is Monte Cassino, he was excellent last Saturday when crowded up for a fair part of the race, his effort to only be beaten a tad over 3 lengths was excellent. The $23 currently on offer is more than 3 times what I have marked him. I am backing both at level stake.

Em Sixty and Zorro’s Flight are both chances, albeit I have them marked considerably longer than what they currently are.

Backing #13 Moonlight Circus and #14 Monte Cassino (1 win unit each)

R4- A tough race to assess with limited exposed form.

I have Oyster Lane on top, off its excellent run at its first start, with natural improvement it will prove hard to toss.

The Begg trained Sideline looks like its main danger off its win at Ballarat. He was very well backed that day suggesting he has shown the stable decent ability.

The unraced Bold Secret is a massive query, its nicely bred, hails from an astute yard, and looked good when jumping out recently.

No Bet

R5- Another race where I will be backing 2 runners.

Miss Tarzy is my on top pick, she was excellent when winning for us a fortnight ago at huge odds. This race seems a tad weaker, and she goes up in the weights as a result. She was soft in the market that day which suggests should had some more furnishing to do. The claim will help her immensely, and I think she is hard to beat.

Lake Vostok is the danger, she gets in with no weight, has performed well at this track and distance previously, and goes well 2^nd up. The $13 appeals as a secondary bet.

Sound It Out, a last start winner from the Waller camp will run an honest race, as will Indian Jewel who is hard fit now and should improve.

Backing #1 Miss Tarzy (1.5 win units) and #12 Lake Vostok (1 win unit)

R6- The Sydney visitor Eye Of The Fire is my selection here, his run when resuming should be scrubbed, it was wide with little cover off a dawdling speed. He arrives here with master horseman Jamie Mott to take the ride, he draws the perfect part of the track, is a 2^nd up winner, and the stable is airborne. At around $8 it’s a bet for sure.

La Fracas has been great winning both races since returning from a spell, he is the testing material, I just don’t like barrier one and the $2.70 doesn’t thrill me either.

Red Hot Nicc was given no chance first up, he’s a far better horse than that run suggests and could be the blow out if he gets the right run. The $34 seems overs to me, I’ve got him around the $14 mark.

Moby Dick is a chance; he will present in the right part of the track late in the race. He’s good enough to swamp them if they overcook the speed.

Backing #3 Eye Of The Fire (1.5 win units)

R7- The Deane Lester Flemington Cup, a race named after a great racing man taken far too early.

I like the bottom weight Muktamil here, this import has perfectly acclimatised this preparation, and this has been his target race. He will settle back midfield, be brought with one run at them from the 300M, and sprint past them with his light weight.

Samuel Langhorne is his main danger, its another who has been set for this race, he also gets in with a light weight and Mick Kent is a master trainer of staying horses. He draws perfectly and Jye McNeil will give him every chance.

One to keep an eye on is Ardakan, this fella has had injury issues over the last few years, his recent runs say he might be over them. Ciaron Maher has engaged Melham to ride and at his best would beat these easily. He may be worthy of a small note at massive odds.

Mormona will get a suck run from barrier 1 and be thereabouts, the $4.50 is too skinny for me though.

Backing #14 Muktamil (2 win units)

R8- My best of the day is Sayedaty Sadaty. In a race devoid of any real speed this fella will control the tempo and be way too strong for this lot. He was bought with the Cups in mind, and I think the Maher stable have realised that his racing style perfectly suits the 2000-2400M distance range. He has a touch of class and some real grit. The $5 they went up was massive overs, I see him starting around $3.50.

His stablemate Relentless Voyager will be better for his one run in Oz and if there is a danger then it could be him. He is lightly raced, has performed well in the UK, and will benefit from the increase in distance here.

Little Mix has good ability on her day and I’m tipping an improved showing here, she must go into your exotics and quaddies.

Casino Seventeen was good first up and will be running on.

Tempesti has good form in Europe and loves wet ground, he isn’t hopeless.

Backing #7 Sayedaty Sadaty (2.5 win units)

R9- We close out the card with the Nick Ryan trained Documentary, this fella never went to the races until he was 6 years old and started his career in good style winning his first 2 starts. He is back for his 2^nd prep and I think the straight 5 furlongs is a perfect place for him to kick off this campaign.

Losesomewinmore is racing in great heart and will provide his stiffest opposition. He likes Flemington, loves soft ground, gets a nice wide barrier and the 1000M trip suits.

Boonie resumes and he’s a chance, as is Harry Got Styles who is a 1000M specialist.

Backing #12 Documentary (2 win units)

R1-3x,1…4,2

R2-5x gv,1,2,7

R3-backing 13&14..4,3

R4-limited exposed form, perhaps 3,7

R5-1x, saving 12…7,9

R6-3x,8,1 ch @ odds,6

R7-14xx,13,1,8

R8-7xxx best/day…2,11 improver,1,4

R9-12xx…2,8,3

Best of luck if you’re having a play.