AFL FINALS TIPS: Adelaide v Hawthorn

Friday, September 12 – 7.40 PM AEST – Venue: Adelaide Oval

The Crows will be looking to rebound this week, after a disappointing loss to the Pies last week has cost them a week off and a certain preliminary final berth. The Hawks let GWS back into the game last week and trailed them in the last quarter despite leading by 42 points earlier. Sam Mitchell re-set them at ¾ time, and they outlasted the Giants with Hardwick repelling the Giants three times in critical moments of the last quarter.  

The Crows captain, Jordan Dawson has had a stellar season, but he was well held by Ned Long last week which stopped the Crows usual drive in the middle. With Izaac Rankine unavailable due to suspension, the Crows didn’t have enough depth to get drive from others in the midfield. The Hawks have two excellent taggers, and we expect Macdonald will go to Dawson and Nash to go to Rachele, who will return after a knee injury. Jai Newcombe needs to closer attention than the Giants paid him, or he will dominate in the middle again this week and give the Hawks forwards plenty of opportunity to score. Will Day will be badly missed again, but Josh Weddle was on fire last week and played out a strong last quarter in his first game back for 10 weeks after recovering from his back stress issue.  

The Hawks have excellent talls and smalls up forward in Gunston, Chol, Watson, Ginnivan, Moore and Mitch Lewis, who will return to the side after kicking 4 goals in the VFL on Saturday, to replace Calsher Dear who will miss with a low grade hamstring injury. They won’t get it all their own way though as Josh Worrell, showed why he should have been in the All-Australian side with 8 intercept possessions, 26 disposals and 548 metres gained, to go with four score involvements last week. Keane, Milera, Bond and Murray will be solid as usual and Michalanney will be better second game back in defence for the Crows.  

The Hawk’s defence is solid too, led by Sicily, Battle, Scrimshaw, Hardwick, Impey and Barrass and they don’t turn the ball over. Can they stop Thilthorpe, Fogarty and Tex Walker who played well in his 300^th game last week from kicking a winning score?

The ruck battle will be interesting with Meek and O’Brien in good form. Whichever of them can dominate around the ground and kick a goal or two might be the difference.

Adelaide at home will be hard to beat, particularly if they can get the crowd up and going early with a few goals. Their pressure is elite – around 180-185 – week in week out, so this is going to be a real contest. With Isaac Rankine out suspended, Josh Rachele, who will be a welcome addition to the team after injury, Ben Keays and Alex Neal-Bullen will have to get on the move at forward 50 stoppages, which is what Rankine has been No 1 in the competition at post-bye.

Max Michalanney could get a forward role as he did a great job locking down the Tigers Nick Vlaustin whilst kicking 3 goals before his hamstring injury. Could he lock down Jarman Impey, and kick a goal or two as well?  

The ruck battle will be interesting with Cameron and O’Brien both in good form. Cam Mackenzie had 31 disposals and 10 clearances for the Hawks in the VFL last week and may get the nod over Changkuoth Jiath who has little impact after coming on as sub in the third quarter. For the Crows, Mitch Hinge was subbed out and Brodie Smith didn’t set the team alight either so it will be interesting to see if they hold their places. Hugh Bond didn’t have a great game against Jamie Elliott either but may hold his spot to tackler Nick Watson this week.

This should be a great game, but I fancy the Hawks in a close one.    

Hawks by 9 points