Track – Soft 6
Rail – Out 5M (previously true)
Back to The Valley on Saturday for a decent 9 race card, the highlight being the ‘listed’ Carlyon Stakes which brings together a small but select field of quality sprinters. After last week’s disappointing performance, we are looking to bounce back with plenty of winners.
R1-1
R3-1
R5-10
R7-5 Best of the day
R1 – #1 Miss Celine (2 win units)
R2 – #6 Jennivamoose (1.5 win units) #1 Wyclif (0.5 win unit)
R3 – #1 Crossbow (2 win units)
R4 – #7 Genrichero (1 win unit)
R5 – #10 Regal Award (2 win units)
R6 – #4 Pudding (1 win unit) #1 Angry Skies (0.5 win unit)
R7 – #5 Oak Hill (3 win units)
R8 – #12 Hard To Cross (1.5 win units)
R9 – #2 Robrick (1 win unit) #9 Veloce Carro (0.5 win unit, 1 place unit)
TOTAL INVESTMENT – 18 units
R1- We kick off proceedings with the Hayes trained Miss Celine. This filly was a stylish winner on debut last Spring and sent for a spell. The stable thought highly enough to pit her against the best 2yo’s in the Autumn where she wasn’t disgraced. She resumes here against moderate opposition, the small field will suit her racing pattern, and Zahra will wind her up coming to the corner to swamp them late. The $5.50 originally offered was way over the odds, I suspect she starts close to favourite.
Cherish Me should get a nice run from her draw and be the one Miss Celine must beat.
Ferocious Frankie and Audio Pop Cam can run into the minor money as can the other 2 starters.
Backing #1 Miss Celine (2 win units)
R2- The staying race of the day and most of these runners have been going around against each other for the past couple of months.
The one horse that comes through a different form line is Jennivamoose, this lightly raced mare has a nice turn of foot for a staying type, and she may have too much upside for some of these. Her recent win at this track and trip was emphatic and there is no reason why she can’t repeat the dose.
If there is to be a blowout then it might come from her stablemate, the old stager, Wycliff. Whilst he is getting on in years his recent effort suggests there is still a bit of spark in him. He had no luck that day and was close at the end of the race, he also boasts a very good record when 4th up.
Muktamil is racing well albeit struggling to draw a favourable gate, he will be competitive, as will Bold Soul who never runs a bad race.
Backing #6 Jennivamoose (1.5 win units) #1 Wyclif (0.5 win unit)
R3- The Waller trained Crossbow is my top pick here, he really appreciated racing on his Melbourne leg when winning at Flemington recently. He is an adaptable type who should get a similar run to that of his last run, I can see the same result occurring too.
Exit will be his only danger to my eye, she is a lovely filly who can unleash a strong sprint late in her races. My preference for Crossbow is around where they will be in the run and the lack of speed that may be at play. That said, if they go quick in the race she can finish over them.
Place chances to Godtfred Kirk and Sabi Storm.
Backing #1 Crossbow (2 win units)
R4- An even bunch of middle-distance horses presents here and luck in running will play a huge part in deciding the winner.
I’ve settled on the improving Genrichero, all three runs since returning from a spell have had good merit, albeit without the best of luck. He has shown recently that he can reel off some nice sectionals, I’m thinking he may get more favourable conditions here, that will enable him to finish off from midfield to win.
Maizy improved recently at her 2nd run back and that should have brought her to peak fitness, she draws perfectly to get the right run and will be in the finish.
Bur Dubai is highly talented and might just have too much class, my queries with it are barrier 1 and that it won’t be fully wound up yet, he has bigger plans over the Spring.
Rise To It gets in fabulously after Logan Bates’ claim and is drawn to get a cushy trip.
Backing #7 Genrichero (1 win unit)
R5- The beautifully Regal Award showed me enough at his only start to say that he is going to be a lovely horse. He didn’t have too many favours that day and finished off nicely from a wide passage where the winner led and was favoured. They immediately sent him for a spell to target the better races, and I think he can reward that patience and be very hard to beat here.
Estremo accounted for a moderate field in Sydney recently and was sent south to see if he is a Guineas horse. This race will answer that question, the stable has a good opinion of this lovely son of Extreme Choice.
Aleppo Pine was very good in the better races of the Autumn; he is a quality animal and will be hard to beat in anything he contests. The barrier is sticky, and he may be cast 3 wide/no cover here, that won’t help his chances.
Oyster Lane is racing well without luck and can figure in the placings.
Backing #10 Regal Award (2 win units)
R6- I’ve found two horses here that were both excellent runs last start in the Too Darn Discreet race, Pudding and Angry Skies.
Firstly Pudding, his last run supported the theory that he may be heading back to the winners list. He quickened well off a moderate clip that day and with even luck would have gone very close. He is drawn softly, is a winner of 9 races and reacts on all types of surfaces.
Angry Skies was another flashing light run last start, his last 200M had next time written all over it. He will pozy up one-off the fence midfield and come hurtling down the outside in the straight.
Sydney visitor Rolling Magic is ready for the mile now, where he is unbeaten. It’s also a winner at his only start when 4th up into the prep, at around $8 he is another very strong hope.
Reset The Jazz is racing very well and loves the 1600M, he won’t be far away.
Backing #4 Pudding (1 win unit) #1 Angry Skies (0.5 win unit)
R7- The best bet on the card arrives here with Oak Hill. He was excellent first up at this track/trip and will have derived plenty of benefit from that, he flies 2nd up and only bad luck will beat him. They originally went up $4, no idea how, that didn’t last long, and he has quickly been slammed into the $2.60 mark, I think that is still a good price, I have him marked shorter than that.
New York Lustre is the only danger, if there is one, she is a very honest mare and has won at her only trip to the track.
Golden Boom can pull out a big run fresh and will be competitive, as will Baraqiel who is resuming now after a recent minor setback.
Backing #5 Oak Hill (3 win units)
R8- The lightly weighted Hard To Cross comes out on top for me here. Its recent effort, again in the Too Darn Discreet race, was very good. Its drawn perfectly, carries no weight, the Payne stable are firing, and the $7 appeals greatly.
Green Fly is capable on his day and has some very high historical ratings. He finished off beautifully last start, gets Micky Dee to ride, and was unluckily beaten in a similar race at his only start on the track.
Pounding has been running into a red-hot Jimmy The Bear recently, he has had a nice little let up since and the step back in trip whilst fresh is a big help.
Globe might get a soft lead here and take some running down, his work recently has been very good although he usually takes a run or two to really peak. On his day he is a serious horse.
Backing #12 Hard To Cross (1.5 win units)
R9- We wind up the day with a race of many chances, I’m backing a couple out of the market, the resuming Robrick and Veloce Carro.
Robrick is a horse that is experiencing a run of outs for some time but that can easily change here. Going back to Cup week last year he has narrowly beaten by Rey Magnerio, that horse would pick up and carry most of these in this race. He has never missed a place first up and we get $17 to see if he can switch his fortunes around.
Veloce Carro is an insane price at $51, he’s a winner at the track/trip, John Allen has won on him which is a good sign and he has won 3 of 4 when 2nd up. He did over race when fresh first up, but still didn’t shirk his task late, if he settles nicely here then he is way over the odds.
Other chances are the last start winner from the Begg camp in De Bergerac, Stolli Bolli who will benefit from his first up effort, and the ex-Kiwi Pivotal Ten who has obvious ability and is a big market watch.
Backing #2 Robrick (1 win unit) #9 Veloce Carro (0.5 win unit, 1 place unit)
R1-1xx,3,5,6
R2-6x, saving 1imp,7,2
R3-1xx,6…2,3
R4-7x,11,2,6
R5-10xx,6,1,4
R6-backing 4x, saving 1,10,3
R7-5xxx best/day,8,3,2
R8-12x gv,9,5,3
R9-backing 2&9 @ odds,6,12,10??
Best of luck if you’re playing.