Track – Good 4 (maybe soft 5)
Rail – True (previously out 10M)
We head back to headquarters for the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes, and what a race we have this year with Australia’s best horse Via Sistina, the old marvel, our countries 4th highest ever prizemoney winner in Mr Brightside, superstar mare Aeliana, and for good measure, top class gallopers Tom Kitten and Antino.
A great support card with 3 other Group races and 4 Listed events, can’t wait for Saturday to roll around.
R4-2 Best of the day
R7-12
R8-5
R10-17 Best value play
R1 – #10 She’s An Artist (1.5 win units), #15 Persian Spirit (0.5 win unit)
R2 – #5 Mcgaw (1.5 win units)
R3 – No Bet
R4 – #2 My Gladiola (3 win units)
R5 – #12 Wonder Boy (1.5 win units), #7 Von Hauke (0.25 win units, 0.75 place units)
R6 – #2 Airman (1.5 win units)
R7 – #12 Bur Dubai (2 win units)
R8 – #5 Via Sistina (2.5 win units)
R9 – #3 Lazzura (1.5 win units)
R10 – #17 Plymouth (1.5 win units)
TOTAL INVESTMENT – 18 units
R1- Our day commences with a large field of sprinters down the famous Flemington straight and it’s hard to go past the headline horse She’s An Artist. Her last run is well documented, mainly around the riding relationship of ‘Jamie and Ben’, not only raising significant comment from the media and racing public in general, but also that of the stewards. This is going to keep popping up whilst they are both high profile and leading riders. That said, She’s An Artist has very good ability and based off her first two wins should be too good for this lot. A repeat of her effort when beating Fieldelo 2 starts back at this track and trip will have her saluting the judge in first place here.
Rich Dottie resumes here off good recent jump out and trial form, she has won 2 of her 3 first up runs, draws out which is beneficial, and Micky Dee will give her every chance.
Persian Spirit also presents here off a spell and has great stats around fresh runs, 1100M races, Harry Coffey has an excellent record on her, she seems way over the odds at $34. Barrier 2 is a slight concern, but she is an honest horse, never missing a place in 12 starts.
Tarpaulin can improve dramatically off recent efforts in Sydney and shouldn’t be dismissed.
Backing #10 She’s An Artist (1.5 win units), #15 Persian Spirit (0.5 win unit)
R2- A very even lot here and I like Mcgaw as a horse. He had a slightly interrupted prep prior to his last run where he was scratched on race day with an elevated temperature. His recent effort behind Tycoon Star showed he was over that setback, and I think that would have topped him off nicely in his quest to turn the tables on that horse. I have him mapped to sit midfield off a moderate tempo and Frosty can pull the trigger when it suits.
The Blue Diamond winner Devil Night was the victim of a tiring horse falling back in his lap when resuming, that run should be forgotten. He’s a 2nd up winner, has good energy reserves off that first up run, and the Hawkes camp are masters of travelling horses and placing them to advantage. He’s drawn to go back with cover and explode down the middle of the track late.
Tycoon Star is racing well but mightn’t get all the recent favours he has enjoyed, he’s a chance for sure, but the $3 is way under the odds to my eye.
Legacy Bound resumes after 2 nice wins to kick his career off albeit in weaker grade than this, he has obvious ability but will need to be at its absolute peak to beat these quality horses. The stable do have a huge opinion of this fella.
Backing #5 Mcgaw (1.5 win units)
R3- An extremely even lot presents here, not a race where a betting edge is obvious.
For the record I have the lightly raced Just Kick on top. She has showed that she can be competitive in this grade at this trip, I believe she needs to be ridden with a sit and not leading. If they elect to do that then I think she will run the trip out stronger.
Vinrock is the obvious danger, he gets his preferred drier track, stepping out to 1400M suits far better, he won the Sires Produce at this track and trip in the Autumn, and Zahra sticks. He will improve dramatically off his latest effort.
Prestige Ole resumes here after a stable change to Matt Laurie, he is a track/trip winner, gets Mott on first time which is a big plus, and kicking him off at 1400M suggests he’s ready to rock n roll. The $27 is tempting.
Crossbow has ability although he’s been a shade disappointing recently. He can win although the $4 isn’t to my liking.
No Bet
R4- The bet of the day arrives here in the shape of My Gladiola. This filly has put in one indifferent run in her career thus far (8th in the Blue Diamond), where nothing much went right. Her run first up indicated she had returned in great shape and had a tick over trial in readiness for this where she looked in great shape. The map looks ideal, she is drawn to sit wide on the track with cover, and I see her rounding them up and drawing away from the 150M mark.
Akaysha from the Snowden yard is a lovely horse, the stable has a high opinion of her, and the trip south is a tip itself. Peter is an outstanding horseman and places his horses well, a forward showing is expected here.
Signature Scent is another above average filly who has won twice from 3 tries, she wasn’t far behind My Gladiola last start when starting favourite. She won’t be far away when they call halt.
Biologics won impressively at Pakenham back in May and was immediately tipped out for the better races in the Spring, she returns here and will be interesting to watch. This is a massive step up in grade, but she is obviously very good.
Backing #2 My Gladiola (3 win units)
R5- The enigmatic Wonder Boy heads back to the races and this is a make-or-break campaign for mine, at his best he is very good, other times he seems a tad disinterested. He gets Williams here, a plum draw, a good race tempo and the opposition aren’t overly strong. Worth noting, he finished a tad over a length when running 2nd to Growing Empire around this time last year, it would start red odds against this lot. I’m prepared to give him another chance and the $7.50 appeals on that basis.
Rise At Dawn resumes here and has an undeniable first up record, winning all 3 starts. Micky Dee will look to control the race from the front and if left alone may prove tough to run down.
Athanatos was great fist up and arguably could have won if the gaps had appeared earlier. He’s as honest as the day is long and natural improvement of his effort last start will have him around the money here.
Von Hauke is an interesting runner, he is a 2nd up winner, has won at the track and at the distance and can produce excellent closing sectionals. He is worth a small ticket at the $91 currently on offer, he could swamp them late if they go mad in front.
Backing #12 Wonder Boy (1.5 win units), #7 Von Hauke (0.25 win units, 0.75 place units)
R6- The Hawkes trained Airman is my on top pick here. They scratched this horse last week in favour of this, I believe the wide spaces down the straight, where he has been victorious previously, is more to its liking than the tight turning Moonee Valley. The booking of JMac is a big plus, as is his middle draw and the $8 currently on offer.
Arkansaw Kid is hard fit now after two recent 2nd placings, running good sectionals on both occasions. He’s a very honest horse who gets a soft draw and conditions to suit.
Media World is an improving type who can figure here with no weight on his back, his trial win in Sydney recently showed he had returned in fine fettle hence them shipping him south for this.
Steparty is a classy fella, a winner of more than $1.5M, he is a first up winner, has a liking for straight track racing and the 1200M. Him winning wont surprise.
Star Patrol is the query runner; at his best he would give this lot a cold. That said he is another year older and returning from a an enforced lay off due to a breathing issue, certainly not ideal.
Backing #2 Airman (1.5 win units)
R7- The staying race of the day and I think we will see an emerging Cups hope in the name of Bur Dubai. This import was purchased with the intent of racing in the Cups, and off his runs recently there is no reason why he won’t be there. He gets a soft draw, no weight, Beau Mertens knows him well and many of these are grades off him. The $7 is juicy, I have him closer to the $4 mark.
Revelare has been a revelation since winning its maiden back in July last year winning another 6 times since. He showed last start that he is worthy of being at this level and is the one they must beat. He is such a trier and has a touch of fairytale about him.
Post Impressionist is a classy conveyance who can easily win this, I’m thinking he is still a run from his top, but he can’t be dismissed.
Newlook is another import who the stable is hopeful of it being ‘Cups bound’, his two runs this time in have yelled two miles, he is one to keep an eye on.
Others with hopes are Sayedaty Sadaty, Jennivamoose and Muktamil.
Backing #12 Bur Dubai (2 win units)
R8- What a race we have here.
If this was a handicap, Via Sistina would give Aeliana 7kgs, there is only half a kilo at this weight scale, how can she beat the champion mare?
Given the small field, only a weird tempo and bad luck can beat Via Sistina.
If they ride Antino cute, Mr Brightside might get a march on them from a soft lead.
Whatever happens it will be an intriguing race and a wonderful battle of tactics.
My final thoughts are that Via Sistina wins on class, toughness, and the weight advantage. Flemington is a plus too; she might be more vulnerable at The Valley or Caulfield.
Backing #5 Via Sistina (2.5 win units)
R9- Lazzura is on top here in a race that lacks pizzaz after the previous event. She was a nice winner when resuming at Randwick, the 1400M looks a nice transition at this stage, drawn perfectly and JMac steers.
On Display was a nice winner first up although she did appear to get a few favours the way the race was run. She rises slightly in class and drops nicely in weight to offset that, Melham, and barrier one are both ticks too.
Oh Too Good is an honest mare who will race on speed, with a soft lead she might prove tough to run down.
Bossy Benita is in career best form and might be the blow out, she maps well and the $17 is a tad over what I have her marked.
Backing #3 Lazzura (1.5 win units)
R10- The meeting closes with the running of a good standard middle-distance race, and its somewhat tricky given the variables around pace, the fitness of some, map etc.
I’ve settled one that I think will improve dramatically, Plymouth. This galloper, now in the care of the Hayes stable was given no hope whatsoever first up in a leader dominated race with no speed. He gets a nice step up in distance to 1700M, good pace courtesy of Globe, and has an excellent run behind Broadsiding in his CV. The $14 appeals.
Globe is a highly talented horse on its day and may get plenty of favours here. Barrier 2 and Zahra are big pluses as is the potential lack of speed. That being the case I can’t take $2.80 about him.
Deakin is a very good horse, he is probably a run short of his best, but he can surprise this lot with the rise in trip, he is also a massive fan of the Flemington track.
Ziryab is the query runner, he has a great first up record, and any market moves should be respected given they are kicking him off at 1700M, he must be ready to go.
Backing #17 Plymouth (1.5 win units)
R1-10x,18,15v,16
R2-5x,1,2,3
R3-12,1,4v,3 very open
R4-2xxx best/day,14,12,19
R5-12x,1,10,7 not hopeless
R6-2x,4,10,3,5
R7-12xx,4,2,8
R8-5xx,6,1,3
R9-3x,7,10,13
R10-tricky race, 17gv improver, 4,2,19??
Best of luck if you’re playing.