Track – Soft 7
Rail – Out 6M entire (previously out 3M)
A good nine race winters card awaits us on Saturday with some very nice bets at juicy odds albeit after a few no bet races early in the program. The track will be on the affected side although there doesn’t appear to be any weather around to change the conditions from what is expected.
R1- We kick off with a 2yo race where there is limited exposed form, as a result we will be staying out.
Oceansprint won well at Ballarat and looks the best of the raced brigade, he should display natural improvement off that effort.
One to keep an eye on is Derivative a $300K Magic Million purchase, he was well in the market on debut in Brisbane and pulled up with heat stress. He has now returned to Victoria for his second prep and market moves should be respected.
No Bet
R2- An extremely tricky affair is presented to us here. I have Legacy Bay on top, she is a very consistent filly who gets in with no weight, is drawn well and peaks here 3rd up.
Terilee is the danger, her recent effort was full of merit behind Ahha Ahha at this track on a similar surface, I can’t back her at the price though.
Eagle Express was good when resuming, she has decent scope for improvement and is a definite hope around the $15 mark.
Grinzinger Pod drops back in grade from a ‘group’ race in Adelaide recently and can figure.
No Bet
R3- Our days punting commences here with Just For Show. Last start at Caulfield was the first time this gelding had missed a place in 10 starts, he fizzed up and over raced, resulting in him not finishing off as well as expected. The race shape should suit better here with some good speed, that will have him relaxing just off the pace and getting a lovely run. He has run 4 placings from 4 starts on soft going which is a plus.
Ahha Ahha, is the one they must beat coming off her excellent victory last start where she brained them. She takes on the males here and rises slightly in class, on that basis I couldn’t jump into the $2.60.
Hot Digity Boom is hard fit and handles soft tracks, the claim for Luke Cartwright will assist greatly and he should be in the finish somewhere.
Harry’s Yacht pulled up lame last start when well fancied, he has a heavy track victory to his credit and some very nice efforts before last start.
Backing #2 Just For Show (1 win unit)
R4- The resuming Sir Atlas appeals very much here. Last preparation I was keen on this fella first up only to see him get bloused on the line by the Payne trained The Open, who is a chance in an open class race later in the day. That was a BM84 that day and kicks off here in a BM74. He is lightly raced, gets a 2kg claim for Ryan Houston, handles wet tracks, and the $13 is succulent.
Boltsaver is racing very consistently this prep albeit without winning, he will settle in the 2nd half of the field and look to swoop late, his wet track stats are very good also.
Dirty Grin is flying this time in, he draws well to get a cushy run and is another horse to benefit from Cartwrights claim at this meeting. He has an excellent book of rides and at this time of year trainers are looking to take advantage of apprentice’s weight relief on soft and heavy tracks.
Sirius Statement had zero luck last start when caught wide, she was racing in good form prior and can surprise with a more economical run.
Backing #10 Sir Atlas (1.5 win units)
R5- Another great bet on the day and another Luke Cartwright ride is Suances. This mare was an excellent winner at this track/trip 3 weeks back and I can’t see any reason why it won’t be repeated. She is lightly raced, ultra-consistent, has an excellent soft track record, the $7.50 appeals greatly.
Extreme Virtue is a talented mare with her hoof on the till, the barrier is a little tricky although Hannah Edgley will endeavour to offset this by sitting outside the lead and trying to kick away at the top of the straight. If she can get some easy sectionals early in the race, then she may prove tough to run down.
Pariah Pearl performed below par last start, a return to her best will have her in the money here. She loves the 1600M and excels on soft tracks, Tom Prebble’s claim will assist also.
Cinematic Star is ready to peak after 3 runs back from a spell, whilst she has never been out to this trip her recent start points to it posing no issue. She also boasts excellent affected track credentials.
Backing #11 Suances (1.5 win units)
R7- I plonked for a deadest wet tracker here in Tempesti. This horse has excellent stats in Italy and the Cumani stable are aware of what type of horse they need to win here in Oz. Last start it was finishing as well as anything in a similar race and that’s an excellent sign for him to go on with it here. He is undefeated on heavy tracks winning all 5 starts, if he’s taken no ill effects from his last run then he is a super bet around the $12 mark.
Saban is the testing material; he is really starting to work this racing caper out and his recent win against most of his opposition here suggests he won’t be far away again. Another Cartwright ride too, it could be a feast for his followers given his very strong book of rides.
Sayedaty Sadaty was excellent first up in the same race, it could be argued he was in slightly inferior ground back on the fence. He will need luck from his wide barrier and racing pattern, that said he has above average ability and can’t be dismissed.
Forgot You also contested the same race, he is working back towards his best form after 14 months off. At his top he would give these some rump to look at, don’t leave him out of your quaddies.
Backing #3 Tempesti (1 win unit
R8- A race of a several chances and I have gone looking a little wide, I’m going to back 3 horses at double figure odds.
The resuming Katsu is the first of those. This horse is a winner having saluted the judge first five times in sixteen starts all those wins coming at the 1000M. Since its last prep he’s had a change of scenery from Begg to Hayes and has had two trials in readiness for this. Goes great first up, and on wet tracks, think it’s a big hope around the $13 mark.
The second play is an old fave in Talbragar; he has been entered and scratched numerous times in the past month, given his leg issues I’m sure Julius Sandhu wants him 100% right before he takes him racing. If he turns up here, he will be awfully hard to beat.
The third is Miss Icelandic, she was a better run than it appeared on paper, she loves rain affected ground and has an almost perfect record at 1000M, look for her to be finishing hard late.
Manolo Bling is the other chance, she is too short for me to be backing though.
Backing #1 Katsu, #5 Talbragar and #8 Miss Icelandic (all ½ unit win)
R9- We close out the day and I’m hoping the class runner Detonator Jack is lit up and ready to explode. He has many ticks for a horse of his quality; performs well fresh, loves the wet, has a good record at the distance and an even better record at the track. This is a horse that has done plenty of its racing at Group 1 level and finds itself here in an open handicap and you get $12 for the fun, a bet every day.
The Open has been racing well recently without winning, he has a great winning record, gets in one kilo over the limit and loves wet tracks, he is the danger.
Step Aside is in on the limit and has a good chance, hs form has been very good recently and that can’t be ignored.
Hughes is racing in career best form and goes in also, my query with him is 5 starts on soft/heavy for no wins.
Backing #2 Detonator Jack (1.5 win units)
R4-10
R5-11
R6-5 best of the day
R9-2
R3-2
R7-3
R1-limited form, raced 3, query 8??
R2-tricky 8,5,7,2
R3-2x great value,8,4,3
R4-10xx,18,3,15
R5-11xx,2,1,15
R6-5xxx best/day….12,8,9
R7-3x great value,8,10,2
R8-backing 1,5&8…13
R9-2xx,15,17,12
Best of luck if you’re having a play.