Mick’s Mail: Mornington 19/04/2025

R1- A tough race to assess with very little exposed form.

Of those to have raced, the two faves have the best credentials, Prestige Snitzel and Toronado Queen.

Kaleo and Optimal Moments are the ones I’m most interested in watching. If the latter is fancied in betting I might have a small ticket on it.

No Bet

R2- The Moody/Coleman team have two good chances here and I like Divine Thoughts as my on top selection. This mare finds a race devoid of speed and I see her jumping from a middle barrier and dictating the race to suit herself. She will be peaking at her 3^rd run in and is a winner at the distance.

Sirius Statement is racing in career best form with 2 wins already this preparation, Jamie Mott steers, he is flying at present and has a great affinity with her, winning twice and placing on another occasion in 4 rides.

Matawai draws perfectly to get a soft run in transit and will benefit greatly from Luke Cartwright’s 3kg claim, she is racing very well and won’t be far away.

Suances the other Moody/Coleman runner is a lovely progressive mare who faces a class rise but looks like its within her grasp. She has drawn the outside which is a bit of a negative but gets Melham to help overcome that.

A tricky race and one im not sure I want to get too involved in.

No Bet

R3- This is a race where there appears to be some value.

Firstly, Chihuly has a few ticks, loves the distance, only start at the track ran a nice 2^nd early in its career, improves markedly 2^nd up where its never missed a place, and is drawn perfectly. The $15 seems way over the odds to me.

The other is Reset The Jazz, he is another who excels 2^nd up, has won 3 from 4 at the distance, draws perfectly and will appreciate the class drop.

The favourites Verdad and Euphoric are definite chances albeit a little to short for my liking.

Carini is an interesting runner, he has contested far harder races than this during his career and was recently purchased by the Bedggood stable, he may appreciate the change of scenery and market moves should be monitored.

Backing #7 Chihuly and #6 Reset The Jazz

R4- Immediacy is the clear top pick here, he was excellent when resuming in a good race at Flemington, is a 2^nd up winer, Micky Dee goes on and it gets a perfect draw. Anything above $3 is luxurious.

Savoir Faire is a handy horse on is day, he loves the 2000M, comes from a very astute stable and the 3kg claim will benefit his cause.

Foujita San was very good when touched off at Caulfield recently, a repeat would have him go close here albeit he has struggled with consistency during his career.

Golden Crusader is hard fit now and gets in with no weight, he can surprise.

Backing #4 Immediacy

R5- Chinqui is the hardest to beat here. Last start he overcooked it a little early in the race and was found wanting late. He has had a nice freshen up and a tick over jump out recently, he will also benefit greatly coming back to the 1000M trip where he has performed well previously.

Gracie’s Rain is racing in great heart recently, she will sit on pace, gets in well after the claim, and Michael Huglin is an excellent trainer who does very well with a small team. She won’t be far away when the judge says halt.

Silencio Porfavor visits from Sydney and Matty Smith doesn’t travel them for the Frequent Flyer points. A winner of his first 2 starts he went poorly when resuming and that was out of character. Matt gave him a nice quiet trial to ensure all was good with him and presents him here. At his best he will go very close to winning.

Kiko returns from a spell, she has good ability and is best suited at this trip, if she can overcome barrier 10 then a forward showing should be expected.

Backing #4 Chinqui

R6- My best bet on the card presents here in the shape of Vestas. This lightly raced filly had no luck when resuming and strikes an easier race from a plum draw and Melham to steer. The Melham/McDonald is a lethal combination, and I see them saluting here once again.

Bridal Waltz is a nice type who is a 2^nd up winner, she will look to settle midfield and finish off strongly. If there is a danger to Vestas then I think it is her.

The Godolphin runner Thames is an honest conveyance who is rarely far away, that will be the case with her here.

Mckeyla went well in the same race that Thames contested last start an is a minor hope.

Backing #1 Vestas

R7- This is a tricky even and one I will only be playing a few through the quaddy.

For the record I have Sneaky Sunrise on top, she is hard fit after 3 runs back for a spell, gets back on her favoured drier surface, and finds an easier race to what she has been competing in. The barrier is a slight concern though.

Fear No Evil is unbeaten from 2 starts and will take up the lead and prove tough to run down. Im not in favour of a claiming apprentice in a non-claiming race though but he can still win if left alone in front.

Steadfast broke her maiden last start and can continue that progression here, she gets a soft draw and a very good jockey upgrade.

Mary Eliza has been good at her 3 career runs and will be competitive.

There are others with chances in a very open race.

No Bet

R8- Its time to shine for Que Tempesta. The step up to 2400M , peaking 3^rd run in and in a suitable class are all positives to my eye.

Berkshire Breeze is the one they need to beat; he is a classy staying horse who will be cherry ripe for this. His 4^th run in is usually his best and he arrives here at that time of the prep. One of these two should win.

Just Fine will lead them a merry dance and is a chance if allowed too much leeway up front.

Virtuous Circle has good staying ability albeit he might need another run to top him off.

Backing #2 Que Tempesta

R9- The return of War Machine from a break appeals to me here. He goes great when fresh, loves the 1200M, and the stable would have targeted this race for him. He has excellent credentials against top class horses, and he meets a slightly weaker lot here.

Oscar’s Fortune was heavily backed first up for his new stable and wasn’t disgraced. Where there’s smoke there’s usually fire, he always improves 2^nd up and is the danger.

Bank Maur can pull out a big run and if that happens here then look out, he is a good outsider.

Regal Vow always puts in and can run a good arce here also.

Backing #4 War Machine

R10- An open race to close out the day and I’ve settled on Namesake. His latest run at Caulfield pointed to a nearby win and I think that could be here. He will benefit greatly from the 2kg claim and the $6.50 looks appealing.

Prancing Spirit gets a soft draw and a favourable map, he will be in it for a long way. The Stokes/Stackhouse pairing are airborne also.

Harry Got Styles will benefit from his first up run and should be considered, as should Laa De Sha who will improve on its returning effort where nothing went right.

Avebury has had plenty of issues throughout its career, if there is market support saying it can run well then that should be highly respected.

Backing #8 Namesake

R4-4

R5-4

R6-1 best of the day

R9-4

R3-6&7

R8-2 value play of the day

R10-8

R1-Difficult to assess, 8&9 raced, 4&5 unraced.

R2-6,4,2,10

R3-backing 7&6 both value..2,4,1?? watch market

R4-4xx,7,3,8

R5-4xx,1,9,2

R6-1xxx best/day,3,5,2

R7-2,7,12,9 tough race

R8-2gv,6….1,7

R9-4xx,1,7,6

R10-8gv,2,4,5imp,7??

Best of luck if you’re playing

Happy Easter