Mick’s Mail: Moonee Valley 24/08/2024

This stoutly bread European import will peak here at his 3^rd run in. He is drawn to sit midfield and pick them off from the 800M and proving the strongest late.

Dashing Duchess is the obvious danger and is racing in great heart. I’ve got it going forward early in a race devoid of speed and sitting outside Brilliant Venture, giving Lordship the perfect chance to round it up. One of these will win.

Too Close The Sun and Wyclif can fill minor placings although their best is behind them.

Backing #3 Lordship 

This ultra-consistent colt is having a great campaign and that should continue here. Fourth run in finds it at its peak, barrier 4 and the booking of Kah are all ticks.

Daggers off its debut win will prove hardest to beat. That day he put away a reasonable field with ease and he should be further improved off that effort. He is beautifully bred and might be heading for better class races in the Spring.

Polygot has performed well at its only two career runs, gets Shinn on and a cushy draw, he won’t be far away albeit he finds tougher opposition than what he has faced thus far.

Rue De Royale resumes, he showed ability at his first prep against superior opponents and a forward showing wont surprise.

Backing #4 Last Druid

I’ve got the roughest of the four, the Godolphin teams Lavalier as my top pick. This beautifully related colt comes down from Sydney where the stable has given him some nice educational experience and I see that strategy giving him the confidence to keeping going to new levels. The barrier and the booking of Kah are positives that will also hold him in good stead.

Dom was a tad disappointing last start when beaten as an odds-on favourite, that said the winner is very smart. Stackhouse on, a good gate and he can bounce back to winning form.

Trunk will push forward to lead from its barrier and look to kick away on the corner, with Dom’s stablemate Evaporate sitting outside it and trying to steal a march early in the straight. I see these two setting it up for Lavalier and Dom.

Backing #3 Lavalier

Manolo Bling off its impressive debut victory is the obvious pick here. This lovely daughter of the emerging sire Grunt can be expected to continue an upward spiral. Ethan Brown is riding in career best form and Team Freedman have the best strike rate of the major stables in the country at present. Their ability to keep horses at their peak over many runs is first class.

She Smashes is a filly that I have an opinion of, I can see her running a big race here at huge odds. At her first run in she settled back in the field and worked to the line ok in the worse ground, she is one for one second up and an improved showing is on the cards. I might be a run too early but at $26 I’m prepared to roll the dice to find out.

Immortal Star and Photograph are both quality filles and they will be thereabouts.

Backing #1 Manolo Bling and #6 She Smashes

This fella flies 3^rd up, is 2 from 2 at the Valley, gets Kah to steer and has great stats at the trip. The $6 seems and absolute steal to my eye, I have him marked several points shorter.

Lincoln Rocks is the one they all must beat, his 3 runs this time in have been excellent and he should be in the finish. That said I think he will start well under what I have him marked and on that basis doesn’t appear to be a value play.

Star Vega won well last start and has claims as does Matron Bullwinkle who has ability and is always thereabouts.

Backing #6 Lauding

Trosettee came out on top given the map, the draw and the 1600m seems its pet distance.

Regal Zeus will make its own luck up on the speed and its last two runs have had merit.

Aiming returned to the winners circle last start and might have turned the corner.

Nails Murphy is always around the money and the step up to 1600m suits.

I could make a case for another 4 or 5 but you can’t tip them all.

Backing #7 Trosettee

He had no luck last Saturday, will have energy reserves given he could get a crack at them, and his appearance here says that he’s taken no ill effects from the outing.

The boom horse Sea What I See has ‘X-Factor’ and he could easily blow them away, the first up part of her form is the only real chinks in her career winning only one of three when resuming.

Holymanz had little luck at vital stages first up and an improved showing here wont surprise. He won his only start at the Valley which is a good sign.

Rheinberg is honest, will race forward and can fill a minor place.

Backing #7 Rhapsody Chic

Sans Doute is a mare of significant ability reflected by her racing through the grades last time in. Mark Walker is a fabulous trainer, his astute placement of runners and his combination with Micky Dee should be seriously respected.

The classy Bold Bastille comes out of 2yo company into the big league, the featherweight and Kah will assist greatly in that endeavour. Her only loss was when she was lame, so she boasts a very impressive record and will prove tough to beat.

Golden Boom down from QLD is an above average horse and faces his stiffest test, the stable has always believed he had a good race in him and that could very well be here.

Mornington Glory went super last start and is another who is well up to winning this.

Backing #7 Sans Doute 

The map, barrier, and his 2^nd up efforts point to a very positive showing for me. The $13 currently on offer seems succulent.

Raikoke showed enormous potential in his initial campaign and with natural improvement he could blow them away. His 2 jump outs in preparation for this suggest he has developed nicely.

Extratwo went well off a freshen up last start and can figure. She went well after a freshen last start and whilst she will need luck early from the barrier, expect her to be strong late.

Superazi always goes well fresh although given the map will need the breaks to go its way at the business end of proceedings.

Backing #9 Prowling

R1-3xxx,4…1,2

R2-4x,6,8,3

R3-3x,1,2,5

R4-1,6v,2,3

R5-6xx,7,11,13

R6-7,8,12,13 (tricky)

R7-7x,9,2,4

R8-7,9,3,5

R9-9x,4,8,1

R1-3 Best of the day

R5-6

R4-6 

R9-9

Top Pick (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 12 units

Return – 31.6 units

ROI  +163.33% POT

Bets – 31 units

Return – 43.2 units

ROI  +39.35% POT

Best of luck if you’re playing.