Mick’s Mail: Flemington 9/11/2024

Race 1- Ceerseven is my best value play on the day, this Mitch Freedman galloper is hard fit now after 2 run this time in, gets Melham, who has a good understanding of the horse, and maps to sit just off the speed. In an even race I think the $14 is an outstanding play each way.

Angland is the obvious danger, this promising gelding has taken a few runs to get his mojo back, the stable cleverly took him to Murray Bridge to get his confidence back, and he’s duly saluted. He can go on with it now, he has a plumb draw and Micky Dee, plenty to like about him.

Fahr Flung and Fire Of Etna are chances out of the market, as is Nation’s Call.

Backing #6 Ceerseven

Race 2- A very open 2yo race with only 3 starters having been to the races previously. Of those raced I liked Leave No Doubt. Of the unraced I am keen to monitor Chisholm, Grammy’s Sunshine, and Latin Boss.

No Bet

Race 3- The staying event on the card, and I like Amade with little confidence, he should be a rock hard fit now and was good when he finished off in the Geelong Cup.

The European import now in the Waller camp, Kinesiology, will be the toughest to beat albeit he is a bit of an unknown quantity.

I’m A Dirty Rascal has been solid recently and can improve, with Smokin’ Romans always a chance in this type of event.

No Bet

Race 4- Robrick is another decent value bet for me here, he is lightly raced with plenty of upside, loves the track, has a good record at the distance and his barrier is a massive plus, as I believe they will be getting to the outside rail in the straight races.

Nadal is a horse I really like; he showed last start that he is back to near his best, and he is also drawn advantageously. Micky Dee will suit this fella and I won’t be losing on the race if he arrives.

Rey Magnerio is racing in career best form and will be in the finish somewhere.

The resuming Garza Blanca is one to keep an eye on if there is support for him in the betting.

Red Hot Nic, Nicolini Vito and Front Page are all trifecta hopes too.

Backing #12 Robrick and #9 Nadal

Race 5- A middle distance mares race and I think the Waller trainer Firestorm can return to the winners list. Whilst she hasn’t been winning, she has been close up in good quality races of late, the draw and D Lane are other positives.

Little Mix arrives here after 2 nice fitness efforts and boasts a win at this trip. She is another who will appreciate this grade and can be prominent around the $15 mark.

Kind Words is racing well, although up in grade she had a soft win last start and can step up here.

Hinged promises and rarely delivers but has class and Coco Sun might be ready to fire and may be worth a small ticket at $21.

Backing #14 Firestorm and #9 Little Mix

Race 6- What an exciting race this promises to be.

In a very hard race, I’m backing Sunshine In Paris, she hasn’t had the best luck this prep and perhaps the 1200M down the straight, where she is drawn out a bit, will suit her perfectly.

Giga Kick was great in the Everest, proving he is back to somewhere near his best, he will be hard to beat and has a great straight track record.

I Am Unstoppable could be the smokey at huge odds and the current queen of the turf Bella Nipotina can never be left out.

Backing #6 Sunshine In Paris

Race 7- Another cracker here and I’m going for Broadsiding to return to his winning ways. I like his weight relief, the race shape, and his drop back to the mile. Micky Dee is a big plus too I believe.

I think Fangirl will improve on recent efforts, she will appreciate the few weeks off, is top class and could blow them away here. The stable reports that she is flying, and they expect a big performance.

Another Wil is the merging horse at this level and should be thereabouts as will the evergreen Mr Brightside.

Backing #13 Broadsiding

Race 8- If the devastating Cox Plate winner Via Sistina repeats that performance it will be ‘times n margins please’, that said she rated career best figures and sometimes there’s a dropping off at their next start.

The topweight Without A Fight returns here from its Cups victory of last year with this as its target, if there is a danger to Via then it will only come from this horse, he is very good, the question is, has he got the sprint in his legs given he is 8yo now. I can’t see any other hopes, maybe the quinella is the play if you want to get involved.

Eliyass and Royal Champion are lovely horses who are progressing along nicely, the WFA scale doesn’t suit them though at this level.

Backing the quinella #1 Without A Fight and #10 Via Sistina

Race 9- We close the curtains on another great week with a dash down the straight.

I’ve settled on the rougher of the 2 Godolphin entries with Zulfiqar. This beautifully bred gelding hasn’t been suited at his last 2 runs back and the straight track he is right up his alley. Zahra on, $26, I say yes please Im going to finish the carnival with a bang, crash, wallop.

The stablemate Pisanello is the obvious danger, he is a serious racehorse although the barrier is a massive concern. If he had drawn wide (where its expected to be better going), then I would’ve marked him $2 or shorter. That said, JMac got one on Thursday from the inside to the outside to win, perhaps a repeat here.

Mantua is as honest as the day is long and will run well, as will Keenan who is resuming and drawn favourably.

Backing #8 Zulfiqar

R1-6 great value,9,8,4,1

R2-unraced 8,9,3…of the raced 1

R3-3,7,9,4

R4-12 value,9,4,10..(7,2,1 rough hopes for exotics)

R5-14x,9,16,7,1

R6-6xxx best/day,1,3,5

R7-13xx,10,6,1

R8-10xxx,1……6,8

R9-8ew,10,14,5

R6-6

R7-13

R8-10

R1-6 best value of the day

R4-12

R9-8

Suggested Bet (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 12

Return – 12.8

ROI +7.68%

Bets – 40

Return – 33.9

ROI -15.25%

Best of luck if you’re playing.