Mick’s Mail: Flemington 5/11/2024

Race 1- We kick off Cup Day with a race for the juveniles, with so many unraced conveyances it’s not a betting event for me.

I’ve put the debutantes in order of interest – Military Tycoon, San Marco Kid and Prestar.

Price Tag went well on debut and is advantaged by the experience.

No Bet

Race 2- Hammet starts the days wagering for me; this lightly raced Waller trained gelding won nicely at Warwick Farm recently to earn his trip south. He was scratched from a race on Saturday in favour of this event, a strategy that will be repaid I’d suggest. He gets a plum draw and Joe ‘the magic man’ Moreira, to make his task a little easier, I think will prove extremely hard to beat.

Plymouth has shown nice ability at his 3 starts, his win 2 runs back was full of merit and last starts effort was franked on Saturday with Treasure the Moment winning the Wakeful.

Lavalier should get a soft run from the rails and the drop back in distance should suit.

Opening Address was good when stepping up in class last start and can figure.

Backing #4 Hammett

Race 3- The cup day ‘greys’ event here, what a great spectacle it is, especially if you can find the winner.

Recent jump outs from Mathletic suggest it is ready and raring to go for this 1400M race whilst fresh. This ex French galloper has had an acclimatising preparation and returns here better equipped to be more than competitive; the booking of Shinn suggests the stable are keen to get the first Australian victory onto his resume.

Interstate visitor Cloudland will be hard to beat, he’s a consistent horse and gets JMac to steer.

Other hopes to Chattahoochie and Riot And Rose.

Backing #3 Mathletic

Race 4- Dublin Down is my top pick here; this colt has had little luck in his 2 runs back from a spell, he gets a lovely draw to sit behind the speed and finish off well.

Gruzamba had a very soft ‘kill’ on debut at Kyneton and he can transition to city class easily, the Walker camp are flying and should be respected wherever they place their horses.

There are some lovely fillies taking on the males here and they should be respected, Overfull, Damehood and Versaille are the picks of them.

Backing #1 Dublin Down and #11 Gruzamba

Race 5- The other staying race on the card is a very tricky race this year, unsure if there are any emerging stayers that can back up here in the Cup next year.

I’ve gone looking wide at the Waller trained Mr Waterville; whilst he has only had one run back from a spell, I’m sure he will be well prepped for the 2800M. In this race last year, he started favourite against arguably a harder field, the $16 looks appealing to me against this lot.

The Waterhouse/Bott runner Newfoundland has looked good winning his past 2, he is drawn to get a very cushy run and Jamie Kah is riding very well.

Other Waller runners Quantum Cat, Canberra Legend and Ahuriri are all live chances.

Backing #4 Mr Waterville

Race 6- I like the resuming gelding Strawberry Rock here; this fella has a 50% strike rate first up and the 1800M fresh will suit him perfectly. I love the booking of Melham and the $18 also appeals greatly in an open race.

Earl Of Tyrone is a definite chance as is Antrim Coast at massive odds.

Arran Bay is racing well, is now hard fit and the stable have scratched from Adelaide today in favour of this.

Backing #11 Strawberry Rock

Race 7- Wow, where do you start here, I suppose with eh winner.

I loved the win of Onesmoothoperator in the Geelong Cup; he had great form in the UK prior to getting here and that win showed he has thrived since arriving. He is drawn perfectly to sit midfield with cover, Craig Williams knows when to wind him up and I see him storming over the top of them at the 250M and putting a gap on them.

Saint George came here with solid European form and Ciaron Maher has had this race in his sights for some time, he will be trained to the minute, gets a very good jockey in Tyler Schiller and a good barrier.

Okita Soushi is another overseas horse that Maher has sourced for this race, his win in the Moonee Valley Cup showed he has hit form at the right time and has that Japanese steel about him.

Sea King also showed he has arrived here well from the UK with his Bendigo Cup win, barrier 1 isn’t the best draw in this race and will take some quality steering from Hollie Doyle, she is a gun rider and it’s not beyond her.

Interpretation will run the 3200M right out and Maher says he’s never been better.

Circle Of Fire, Zardozi and Absurde need to go into your exotics.

Backing #13 Onesmoothoperator

Race 8- My best bet on the program arrives here with Extremely Hardys, another scratched from Saturday in favour of a more suitable race. This beautifully bred filly has done all that has been asked of her in 2 career starts, winning both on wet and dry surfaces. Drawn perfectly here, gets ‘the magic man’, and at $6.50 is a fabulous bet.

I really like Komodo Dragon as a horse, she has been impressive in her career thus far, gets Melham and a good barrier, the danger for sure.

Stage n Screen was great on debut and can step up here, as can Jellicious who has ability.

Big Swinger and Chewing Gum are the others for multis.

Race 9- Konasana comes out on top here, this mare drops a little in class off recent runs and her effort in the Silver Eagle when close up supports a positive showing here.

Fall For Cindy is unbeaten 2^nd up, gets Damian Lane, a good barrier for its pattern, and is $31, must be having something on her.

Aviatress is flying at present, goes well on any surface and will be around the finish somewhere. A perfect draw and Williams on are both positives.

Fancify can’t be discounted either, he loves the track and distance and was a nice winner when resuming.

Backing #4 Konasana and #3 Fall For Cindy

Race 10- Warnie has an undeniable chance here, he is lightly raced winning 3 from 5, has a sweet barrier and an in-from jock in Ethan Brown.

Bel Air can improve sharply off its past two runs, he goes well at both the track and distance, excellent 3^rd up stats and Melham has an outstanding record on him.

Marble Arch and Rheinberg are live hopes in an open race.

One to consider if there is move for it in the betting is Pal D’oro, he is first up after a bone fracture but has real ability, if he’s recovered fully he could be a blowout.

Backing #12 Warnie and #13 Bel Air

R1-too hard 13,7,5 (unraced), 10

R2-4xx,8,5,2

R3-3xx,4,2,6

R4-1x,11…12,17,18

R5-hard race 4v,10,13,9,15

R6-11 value,6,4 chance at huge odds,5

R7-13x,22,12,15,18 (good luck)

R8-5xxx,9,13,15 knockout chance (7&8 for multis)

R9-4x,3,5,12

R10-12,13,3,11,10??

R2-4

R3-3

R8-5 best of the day

R4-1

R5-4

R6-11

R7-13

Suggested Bet (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 12

Return – 10.2

ROI -15%

Bets – 35

Return – 33.4

ROI -4.57%

Best of luck if you’re playing.