Mick’s Mail: Flemington 3/08/2024

R1- We kick off proceedings with an early 3yo 1400m event with limited exposed form. From what we have witnessed I have settled on Evaporate from the Hayes camp who is currently a 4-start maiden and I’m tipping he won’t be for long. He jumped out nicely prior to resuming this time in and although he was beaten at a very short quote I’m prepared to forgive him for that effort on the synthetic at Ballarat. Back on the grass and a roomier track, he is drawn to get a lovely run, Dee takes the ride and I expect him to be strong late.

Warparty looks the obvious danger, after being spruiked in much harder races earlier this campaign, they took him to Seymour for a soft ‘kill’ and he didn’t disappoint, winning by 5.5L, a repeat of that effort has him going close here.

Khabalov is an interesting son of Russian Revolution, he was fancied on debut and ran an even race, with natural improvement he could figure here.

Detroit City must go in, he won his only start in good style albeit in a lower grade, but it was the way he won that showed he has above average ability.

Backing #5 Evaporate

R2- This might be a cuppa tea race given Berkshire Breeze looks an absolute moral here, the question is do you want to take $1.40. His recent form suggests he is a group horse heading for the better Spring staying races, none of his opposition here will be worthy of competing in those races.

For trifecta players I have Horrifying as my 2^nd pick, he loves Flemington, will get the trip, gets Shinn to steer and returned to winning form last start.

Other chances for the placings are Mr Waterville who has had 2 fitness runs to ready him for this and has decent ability on his day, and Post Impressionist, who won well at his Aust debut although first up at 2530M against seasoned gallopers is a tough ask.

Backing #3 Berkshire Breeze if $1.50 or better is available.

R3- A very open mares event with many chances. I’ve settled on Cindy Falls as my on top selection, she has been so honest this campaign, gets a great draw, races well at the track, Shinn goes on and the step back in distance is an advantage.

The Moody/Coleman trained Divine Purpose is a big improver here, was unwanted in betting first up but ran an encouraging race, the betting drift tells me that the stable thought she was a tad underdone, she will strip fitter here and I expect her to run a bold race.

Ithadtobezou is in a purple patch of form, gets the right run and will be hard to beat, with the SA visitor Alpine Flyer getting in well after Tom Prebble’s claim and is always around the mark.

Backing #3 Cindy Falls

R4- This race dishes up my best bet on the program, Midtown Boss. This son of Street Boss boasts an ultra-impressive record with great stats at the track/distance and first up, additionally Daniel Stackhouse has had 5 rides on him for 2 wins and 3 seconds. I’m tipping he can progress to better races than this during its Spring prep.

Veloce Carro is 2^nd pick, another who has an excellent record at the course and trip, he also benefits from Gaudray’s claim and is currently racing in great heart.

Fortunate Kiss resumes here and goes very well fresh, and Home Rule is at its peak now and can figure in the minor money.

Betting up on #3 Midtown Boss

R5- An extremely open race where I have Rise At Dawn on top. He races best at Flemington and the 1600m is ideal, Stackhouse has a 50%-win record on him from 6 rides also.

Watadeel interests me also, he hasn’t quite got it right this time in although I suspect he is now hard fit and ready to improve dramatically.

Le Zebra was a huge win against decent opposition last start and a repeat has him in the finish.

Cawdor finally delivered for us last start in Adelaide and whilst he finds a stronger lot here he can’t be dismissed.

Backing #3 Rise At Dawn and #4 Watadeel

R6- Right To Party is one of my strong bets on the card. He has returned from a spell and taken all before her and I see that upward spiral continuing here. Jye McNeil knows the mare well and the Freedman stable are absolutely flying. He is drawn perfectly to sit just off them with cover and peel out at the 250 to finish over the top.

It’s Our Time is a straight track specialist, and he is a 4 length better horse when he gets those conditions. During his career he has taken on the best and he finds a field here that is several levels below that.

The Gollan trained Zarastro will make his own luck on the speed, if given easy sectionals early he will prove hard to run down.

Rocketing By might be past his absolute best but he is a winner of $2.7M in prizemoney and the astute David Pfieffer hasn’t brought him down for the scenic float trip.

Having a good bet #8 Right To Party

R7- A tricky race here and I’m expecting Lauding to improve dramatically off its unlucky effort first up. Nothing went right that day, he missed the kick, was tightened several times during the run and once out of a competitive position was allowed to saunter to line without too much pressure being applied. He loves the distance and hasn’t missed a place in his 2 runs at the track.

St Vincents Garden looks ideally placed off an acclimatising run at the Sunny Coast and the booking of Lane suggests he is ready to go.

Rise To It has the lethal Maher/Kah combo and after 3 runs this time in he will be hard fit now and I expect a forward showing.

British Columbia won nicely last start, gets the benefit of Ryan Houston’s 3kg claim and he should be thereabouts.

Backing #3 Lauding

R8- Holymanz is my best value bet of the day. I really like this horse fresh and the 1400M suits first up. The appointment of Zahra is a plus and he has won previously on this fella.

Astero was very good to us at his last start and treated them with contempt late, a repeat of that will stamp him very hard to beat.

Shopping Esprit from the Waller camp has a big run in him when coming back from a spell and at the 50/1 on offer he will go in as a better than flukers hope.

Rheinberg is racing in career best form and must go in as a chance.

Backing #2 Holymanz

R9- Shaime is my top pick here for Cliff Brown. She is capable of a very good run when at her best and providing she is over her issues from the last run will be hard to beat.

Attain will get a smother from barrier 2 and Micky Dee will be looking for a run at the 200M mark, any betting moves should be noted with this son of Outreach.

Veecee is an interesting runner for Team Maher and Craig Williams will be looking to get into the winners circle. Whilst he has won only 1 from 8 appearances, I have him mapped in a position to be flying late.

The Clinton McDonald trained Holly Lolly gets Mellham to ride and loves the 1200M trip, she is a definite hope.

Backing #13 Shaime and will also play #14 Attain if the money comes.

R1-5x,4,6,1

R2-3xxx …2,5,1

R3-3,8 improver,5,1

R4-3xxx best of the day,1,6,4

R5-3,4,6,2

R6-8xxx,2,1,5

R7-3,8,10,1

R8-2xx best value,3,8,4

R9-13x,12,14,11

R2-3 Looks a moral albeit a little too short.

R4-3 Best of the Day

R6-8

R3-2 Best value of the day

R8-1

Top Pick (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 10

Return – 7

ROI  -30%

Bets – 34

Return – 37

ROI  +8.82%

Best of luck if you’re playing.