Mick’s Mail: Flemington 29/03/2025

R1- We kick off the day with a very even race where I found it tough splitting the top 4 horses.

I ended up settling on the topweight A Little Deep. This ultra consistent mare is unbeaten fresh, loves the distance, draws in the middle of the field, which is an advantage here, and gets Jamie Melham to steer. Its worth noting her 2 runs at Flemington were last start where she arguably was at the end of her preparation and a close-up 2^nd to Sans Doute who was flying at the time and a live hope in R6 later in the day. This is an easier assignment and the $5 appeals.

Pondalowie is ready now after 2 runs back, she is a winner at the track/trip and looks to get a good run from the barrier.

Nunthorpe is a talented mare who has had a few issues, at her best she would shake the life out of this. Her recent jump out supports her being over those worries and will run well.

Bossy Nic can’t be left out, she always runs an honest race and won’t be far away when they call halt.

Backing #1 A Little Deep

R2- A tough race to assess given the lack of exposed form. Prestige Ole has the best exposed form, and the unraced don’t excite me from what I have seen, I won’t be getting involved.

No Bet

R3- Like the previous race there isn’t that much to assess, Befuddle appears to have decent ability and Lange Nelle went well when trialling at Cranbourne. I won’t be playing, although if you’re keen to have a throw, I’d be more inclined to have something small on Lange Nelle if there is market support.

No Bet

R4- A tricky 1600M event with the top two horses having the best form.

I have settled on Athanatos by default. He is racing very well without luck this prep, the trainer/jockey combo are in form and his run a fortnight ago showed he is very close to another victory. I can’t tip him strongly though as he has only won once in 11 attempts.

Ndola is the best horse in the race, I have no doubt about that. My biggest concern with him is I don’t think he’s a 1600M horse, there’s an explosiveness about him that appears to be better suited in shorter races. The Hayes camp obviously don’t agree with me, he is by Justify and the breed usually get over ground. He has drawn well and may just get the perfect run in transit to see out the trip.

With both horses being sub $4 I won’t be betting.

Storm Season has only had 2 starts and her last effort was meritorious. She is a progressive type, albeit very harshly treated at the weights against more seasoned horses. There is significant upside with her and a forward showing wont surprise. The Price/Kent team are great at placing their horses and they are happy to throw her in at the deep end here.

Cavity Bay has only average 2^nd up form but on its best efforts can finish in the placings.

No Bet

R5- The meeting starts to hot up here and I am keen on Enxuto to make it 4 wins on the bounce. This progressive gelding of Robbie Griffiths’ has really gone to a new level this campaign. He has a real liking for the 1600M trip, maps perfectly and has an excellent turn of foot. I can see a repeat of his last win at the 1400M here and the additional 200M is a plus.

Hellsing was scratched last week in favour of this event, he won his only race when 3^rd up, draws perfectly, Williams steers fresh from his win in the HK Derby and is one of these imports that have benefitted from an acclimatisation period. He should be ready to peak here and provide the stiffest opposition.

Nugget has been a very good horse to me, and he is ready to improve after one run back. He has class, a good record at the distance and benefits from having a first up run.

The evergreen Munhamek loves the course and distance and will run a brave race as always.

Backing #10 Enxuto

R6- The Cummings trained Pisanello looks a standout here. This lightly raced sprinter is a winner at his only run at the track, is unbeaten 2^nd up, is 2 wins from 3 tries at the 1000M, and gets Mrs Melham to steer who I believe will suit this horse perfectly.

Sans Doute was only average first up at Caulfield over 1100M although Flemington and the step back to 1000M are both better set ups for this mare. On her day she is very good, additionally she has had 2 tries at this course/distance for 2 victories.

Pisanello’s stablemate Spacewalk is another highly talented horse, he has only missed a place once in 7 first up attempts, similarly he has only missed a place once in 7 tries at the distance and only missed a place once in 5 visits to the track. He gets Shinn and a favourable barrier; he won’t be far away.

Oscar’s Fortune had a good reputation when arriving from WA 11 months ago, he has taken a little while to find his feet although his recent trail suggests he is ready to show his best in the eastern states.

Backing #8 Pisanello

R7- My best value bet on the card presents here in the shape of Gatsby’s. This Waller trained colt appeared to be a tad disappointing on face value in the Newmarket but there were excuses. He was held up badly and wasn’t clear until the race was all over, as a result he wasn’t punished to the line. He arrives here with energy reserves and a significant class drop. The $10 looks a super bet.

Alabama Lass arrives here with a big wrap from NZ, its form across the ditch is good in Group races, although she will want to be every bit of that hype to win here as the opposition is strong and it’s against both sexes. She is obviously very good, but I couldn’t take $2.60 about her.

Daggers is lightly raced and has been very competitive in all his runs; its first up effort will sharpen him up perfectly for this and will be finishing hard late.

First Settler is above average and has a win over the promising Reserve Bank at this track/trip, barrier 1 is a slight concern but he shouldn’t be discarded.

Backing #3 Gatsby’s

R8- The import Middle Earth is the one they all must beat here. Its first up win was super and showed that he has acclimatised well and is a horse of real substance. The Flemington track is nice and roomy for a big bold galloper like he is, and I expect a repeat of his last start effort here.

The track specialist Atishu is the main danger, his stats at the track, distance and 3^rd up are very good, Shinn has never missed a place on him also. He must go into the first leg of the quaddy.

Light Infantry Man is a classy type and should be ready for this trip now, he wont surprise me if he pulls out a mighty run.

The peoples fave Pride Of Jenni is always a chance although she wont get this race handed to her like last start. I think she could be vulnerable with Deny Knowledge annoying her. So, on that basis I’ll be betting against her, but she has champion qualities and can still win.

Backing #4 Middle Earth

R9- The best bet of the day arrives here in the shape of the emerging stayer Deakin. Since arriving for the UK this impressive horse has continued to improve at each run and I know the stable are eyeing off the major cup races in the Spring. He will get a charmed run here and prove too good for this lot.

Berkshire Breeze is an above average stayer who should be at his peak now, if there’s a chink in Deakin’s armour then this fella will expose it.

Mostly Cloudy is another who has been touted as a ‘group’ level stayer, he has been just below that level since landing in Oz although there are signs that he is a more than handy horse.

Waltham is lightly raced and was a nice winner last start, he can figure in the placings.

Backing #3 Deakin

R10- The lucky last Sunset Dreaming was another of my value plays on the day. She has good numbers when resuming and at the distance. Others must like her also, as I go to print, I see she is $9 into $4.80, around the price I had her marked.

I liked the win of Codigo recently, understanding he faces a decent class rise here. The Moody/Coleman camp have a good record in improving these types of horses dramatically. The $17 currently on offer seems over the odds.

Poifect was scratched last Saturday when I had backed her in early markets, she has a good fresh record, and a forward showing is in the cards.

Mytemptation wasn’t suited at the Valley last start and will appreciate being back to headquarters, he has a very good chance and must go into the quaddy.

Backing #13 Sunset Dreaming

R5-10

R6-8

R8-4

R9-3 best of the day

R7-3 best value bet

R10-13

R1-1x,3,4,2 very even

R2-not enough exposed form

R3-perhaos 9 if supported in betting

R4-2,1,9,4

R5-10xx,11,2 improver,1

R6-8xx,7,2,1

R7-3x great value,6,7,1

R8-4xx,7,1,6

R9-3xxx best/day,9,6,11

R10-13x value,15,4,1

Best of luck if you’re playing.