Mick’s Mail: Flemington 18/1/2025

R1- We kick off an excellent 10 race card with a small but very competitive 1600M benchmark 100.

I like the set up for Marble Arch here, this mare is racing in great heart, loves the trip and young Jaylah Kennedy’s 2kg claim will help immensely. I see her sitting just off the speed in midfield and being too good in the run to the line.

The old marvel Munhamek is the danger, two runs back has him peaking for this, he is the class runner as a winner of over 2.5M, he also has exceptional stats at the track/distance etc.

Last start winners Mollynickers and Wings Of Song are live hopes also.

Backing #3 Marble Arch

R2- We won’t be betting here given the large percentage of runners facing the starter for the first time.

Of the unraced brigade Im keen to watch Ethereum Girl and No Limitation, of those raced Hot Whiskers and Eden Rose.

No Bet

R3- Given the very even nature of this race I have settled on one just out of the market in Garnacho. I think the way this race is run will suit this fella, and his last run at Flemington had good merit. The favourable draw, Damian Lane and his experience at the track are all positives, the $12 also appeals.

Tomba, down from Sydney is the one they must beat, his last 2 wins have been very good, the barrier suits for a cushy run, and the distance is perfect at this stage of his prep.

Centennial Park and Zorro’s Flight have both won their last 2 and will again run well.

Backing #6 Garnacho

R4- I’ve settled on Material Dreams here, I like her recent freshen up, the map, Billy Egan won his only ride on it and the $9 is very appealing against this lot. Her best form is way better than most of these.

Luna Cat is ready now after 2 runs back, she is drawn perfectly, gets in well after the claim, and is a winner at this course and distance.

The fave Samangu has won 3 on end, a difficult task for any horse, she can win again albeit you must take a very short price now.

Shaime also resumes and has good ability, she always goes well fresh and has never missed a place at this track.

Backing #2 Material Dreams

R5- Gronkowski is peaking here at its 4^th run back. He has won forth up previously, loves the trip, ran 2^nd at his only run at the track and his last run was outstanding given the tough run he experienced in transit. The $9 suits me very nicely.

Subrising resumes and has won fresh previously, I see her getting a smother back in the field and unleashing late, the draw suits also for its racing pattern.

Zoupurring is a chance, he boasts an excellent 2^nd up record, draws to get a decent run on the speed, and the stable is going well.

Layeruponlayer won well first up, he saluted at his only run at Flemington and currently has a 50%-win record. A horse of good ability and he won’t be far away here.

Backing #5 Gronkowski and #4 Subrising

R6- Veloce Carro is my best bet on the card, he flies early in a campaign, is drawn perfectly for this type of straight race, and gets Zahra to steer. His 2 fresh runs at Flemington over the past year have both yielded victories too.

Big Watch is way over the odds at the $26 currently on offer. His last run at Geelong in a small field was a sign that he wasn’t far off a very good effort, he was only beaten a length by Veloce Carro when last they met.

Major Share is racing in great heart and is a hope, as is the SA visitor Wiggum.

Backing #1 Veloce Carro

R7- The first leg of the quaddy is a tricky affair; I’ve got Manolo Bling on top. This lovely daughter of Grunt was very well fancied on resuming at Geelong where she encountered tightening and a cut to her hind leg which suggested that he was galloped on. She will give a great sight up on the speed and prove hard to run down.

La Vie En is up in class but deserves a crack in this grade going on her recent victory. She will park just behind them and look to outsprint them from the 250M mark.

Spring Air won nicely on debut and resumes here, any positive market moves should be respected.

Miss Cotoletta will derive plenty of improvement off her first up run, she maps to get a perfect run and be in the money.

The impeccably bred Kirribilli also resumes, she was tried in a very good race before her spell albeit failing and being sent straight out, Shinn rides here which is half a tip, and a win wouldn’t surprise.

Backing #1 Manolo Bling

R8- The day’s best value play steps out here in the shape of First Immortal. Three indifferent runs back from a spell and he is now ready to improve sharply. I love the booking of Shinn, who has an excellent affinity with the horse, he loves the 2000M and is 3 wins from 5 starts at headquarters. The $13 currently on offer is luxurious.

Bold Soul is a winner (5 from 12), he is ready to produce now, and loves both the track and the distance. He will be the testing material.

We backed Deakin last start in an easier race at Pakenham and he did it in authoritative fashion. This import is a horse on the move and a definite chance, the $2.70 doesn’t thrill me though.

Shaiyhar can run a cheeky race and the resuming United Nations is one to keep a very close eye on.

Backing #3 First Immortal

R9- The penultimate event on the card and the resuming Howgoodareyou is my clear top pick. Last prep she was close in decent races, and I believe the stable change to the Begg camp will give her the renewed zest for racing that she needs. Her previous racing pattern had her always looking to lead, I’m hopeful she can park just behind them and be too strong late.

Red Phantom will appreciate the significant weight drop here, he always improves after a run back and he could be a knockout here.

Le Ferrari went great at Geelong (would’ve been lovely if he saluted at the $31), a repeat of that gutsy effort will have him in the finish here.

Verdad has now run 7 seconds in his 13-start career (1 win), he has obvious ability but is hard to back.

Backing #9 Howgoodareyou

R10- The lucky last and Dream All Day should be hard to beat. This ultra-consistent mare had plenty of favours in a slowly run race last start. That said, she is versatile and doesn’t have to lead. I picture Shinn giving her every chance behind the speed and being too good for them.

Et Tu Brute has ability and will get the right run from barrier 6, Mott is riding very well also.

Mannerheim and last start winner Zambezi Khan round out the chances here.

Backing #12 Dream All Day

R6-1 best/day

R9-9

R10-12

R3-6

R4-2

R5-5

R8-3 best value/day

R1-3xx,1,5,4

R2-too many unraced

R3-6ew,3…1,2

R4-2xx,1,5,3

R5-5xx,4??,6,1

R6-1xxx best/day,10v,4,8

R7-1x,7,8,4 improver,2

R8-3xx best/value,11,15,13,8??

R9-9xx,17,2,6

R10-12xx,13,8,2

Best of luck if you’re playing.