Mick’s Mail: Flemington 17/05/2025

R1- A nice bunch of 3yo’s kicks us off, and my best bet on the card arrives here in the shape of One Hard Lady. This lovely filly is unbeaten from 3 starts, is prepared by an excellent mentor in Donna Scott from Albury and the very capable Blake McDougall takes the reins. At each of her 3 wins she has shown grit, determination, adaptability, and acceleration. I see her sitting just off them and exploding away at the 200M mark, I think you’ll see a lovely/progressive horse winning here.

The Showvinist has good form lines and gets a good map, he will be competitive in this.

Harry’s Yacht was a nice winner on resumption and will be around the money, as will Runlikenencrytion who is 2 from 2 and comes from a good yard.

Backing #6 One Hard Lady 1.5 units

R2- A difficult race to assess with limited exposed form.

On what we have seen perhaps Highvol from The Opportunist but I won’t be playing.

No Bet

R3- An open race down the famous ‘straight six’ and I’ve gone looking for the run on horses.

As a result, I landed on one right out of the market in Cindy Falls. This lightly raced mare has an outstanding fresh record, has won at Flemington, is a distance winner and gets weight relief for Logan Bates’ claim. She draws nicely to sit back with cover and come with one run from the furlong to hopefully swamp them. The $23 seems very juicy for an each way play.

Herecomesthestar was good when resuming at Caulfield recently. The map is favourable for her here, she should camp midfield with nice cover, getting sucked along for the first 900M when Jordan Childs will be looking to peel out and make a run. She ran a nice 2^nd to Pondalowie down the straight just over a year ago which is a good sign as many horses get lost when racing down the straight.

Happy Link hasn’t had much go right for her this time in. First up they experimented with riding on pace which didn’t suit, and last start she hated the Valley. I see her being ridden more conservatively here and recapping her best form, which includes a win over the very good horse Treasurethe Moment, that form would easily win this race.

Quiseen is flying this prep winning 3 of 5 starts, 6 runs in a campaign cam be somewhat problematic although in her current from she is going too well to dismiss.

Backing #4 Cindy Falls 0.5 unit win, 1 unit place

R4- Daggers is my top selection in this race, his last start effort in Adelaide behind Reserve Bank was a gallant from a wide gate. That horse franked the form by winning the Group 1 Goodwood at its next start. Daggers returns home and finds an easier race to get back into the winning list. He has performed well at the track previously and I think he has an undeniable chance.

One of the absolute bolters in Cachink is a danger, back in the Spring it won a decent race one night at Moonee Valley. That night he had very few favours go his way, and he toughed it right out to get the victory. He resumes here, has an excellent record when first up and at $51 may be worth a small ticket.

Taken is racing in great heart and gets in with no weight, he has a hope, as does Kalkallo who was a nice winner at Caulfield a fortnight ago.

Backing #5 Daggers

R5- A tricky event presents here with a 2000M race for 3yo’s, with many of these having never been out to the trip.

I like Somewhere to come out on top. This fella has always showed that he will appreciate getting out in distance, he is by a staying sire out of a Japanese bred mare, with a racing pattern to suit. His 3^rd placing behind On Display is of a better standard than this also. He should settle just off midfield and be too strong late.

Other chances are Oxford Blue, good jockey/trainer combo and bred to get the trip, Politely Dun, a winner over the distance, and Naina, a Waller trained Pierro filly who is well drawn and has Ben Melham to steer.

Backing #2 Somewhere

R6- A dash down the straight six and its hard to go past King Zephyr. This lightly raced gelding has won 5 of 6 career starts, is still on an upward spiral and he should win again. The Begg/Childs combo is airborne at present also, with Childs having had 5 rides for 5 wins on KZ.

Running By resumes and if there is one to knock off the fave then it could be her. Whilst better suited over slightly longer trips she can produce very quick sectionals if the race is run to suit. She has won 2 of 4 races first up.

Codigo is racing in career best form and whilst up in class he is better than a $26 chance.

Lim’s Kosciuszko is a query, he must be respected if there is stable support, any horse that wins 22 races from 30 starts has above average ability.

Backing #11 King Zephyr

R7- This is a deadest lottery; I will play the quaddies but can’t bet with confidence.

I have gone for Alma Rise, her win at Echuca last start had very good merit.  How she handles the 2800M trip is anyone’s guess. If she does get the trip, then she could have the most upside.

Mostly Cloudy has good stats at the trip and is the obvious danger. In a race where many will be gone at the corner, he is in the category of those to be getting the journey.

Berkshire Breeze will have admirers and can win although I find him impossible to catch.

Denmark is the best roughie; he performed ok when racing at this trip in the UK.

No Bet

R8- This is a race I want to play in and I’m backing 2 runners, Suparazi and Seonee.

Suparazi got beaten 4L behind Joliestar and Headwall last time in, that is outstanding form for a race like this. He has had 2 runs at this track/trip for a win and a 3^rd, at $8 he must be a bet.

Seonee loves the track and will appreciate coming back in distance and the 3 weeks between runs. She always goes well 3^rd up and is also a bet at $9.50.

Wings Of Song and Verdad can also win and will be going in the quaddy.

Backing #5 Superazi and #7Seonee

R9- The lucky last and I have a strong feeling it will be for us.

I’m quite keen on the Jerome Hunter trained Magarten. This race sets up perfectly for this son of Maurice, his run 3 weeks back in Sydney suggested that he was very close to his top. The 3 weeks since his last run has him in the sweet spot. The $10 early was way over the odds IMO.

Liberami is his main danger, his efforts this year have been very good, he gets in very well at the weights off his run behind King Zephyr 4 runs back. The $3.20 is a tad skinny though.

One to perhaps speck at massive odds is Mathew, he goes well fresh, likes the distance, and shouldn’t be $41.

Arqana has ability, she has had no luck recently and if things go her way, then she will be in the finish. She could be the knockout.

Backing #10 Magarten

R1-6 best of the day

R5-2

R6-11

R9-10

R3-4

R1-6xxx best/day,1,2,7

R2-too little exposed form…1&3

R3-4gv,2,13,10

R4-5x,9,15,7

R5-2xx,4,5,12

R6-11xx,3,13,1??

R7-lottery 18,8,12,14

R8-backing 5&7…10,9

R9-10xx,17,11v,16

Best of luck if you’re playing.