Mick’s Mail: Flemington 15/02/2025

R1- We kick off the card with a tricky affair, I’ve settled on Shiny New Deel to take advantage of the 2.5kg weight swing in relation to its 0.3L 2^nd to Revelare, who is one of its main dangers. He should take up a forward position and look to kick away at the 250M using his light weight to hold them off.

Kapakiri has now had 2 encouraging runs back from a break and his last run showed he is nearing his peak, draws perfectly to get a soft run and the Waller/JMac combo is a big plus.

Revelare is flying at present, draws perfectly, and the step up to 2000M should hold no issues. If I go looking for his negatives, this is his 5^th run in his first proper preparation and he goes up 3kgs off his recent victory.  He is capable of overcoming these obstacles but I can’t take $3 about him.

Le Zebra is ready to produce after 2 runs since a freshen, he has won 3^rd up and ran 2^nd at his only try at 2000M.

Small bet #11 Shiny New Deel

R2- A race to hard to assess given the half the field are first starters and those who have raced have little exposed form.

I’m keen to watch Ammo, Blethyn and Mineral Resources for future pursuits.

No Bet

R3- The resuming Plenty Of Ammo is my selection and best bet of the day. This big grey mare has a huge engine and great ability, unfortunately she has had injury issues earlier on that have resulted in in only 8 starts (5 wins) into her 6yo year. Prior to going for a spell, she raced the likes of Atishu and Amelias Jewel, serious Group 1 horses. The distance and track are perfect whilst fresh, at $6 she is a fabulous bet.

Fancify is racing very well and was very brave first up when run down late by She’s Bulletproof, she is 4/4 at the 1400M and 2 from 3 second up. I see her rolling along in front and giving a big sight (until Plenty Of Ammo runs past her late).

Miraval Rose and Wrote To Arataki are both honest and capable mares, doubt they have the class of numbers 2 & 3 though.

Backing #2 Plenty Of Ammo

R4- An even race with many winning chances, I’ve narrowed it down to 2 main hopes in Ziryab and Arqana.

Ziryab has really come of age in its 2^nd prep since arriving from the UK, a trend we see regularly from those relocated here. Since coming back from a break his two victories suggest he ready to keep progressing through the grades, Zahra sticks and I like the 3+ weeks between runs.

Arqana wasn’t far away in a good form race when resuming here, she had a nice quiet trial in readiness for this and she will be hard to beat. Another good pointer is she won her only attempt at the track/distance.

Verdad has obviously ability albeit manages to find one better, evidenced by his one win and nine placings (7 seconds) from 14 starts. He could win without surprising although betting with confidence is problematic.

My Brothers Keeper was excellent first up in the race that Arqana contested, he will settle back and fly home, if favours go his way then he can certainly win here.

Backing #8 Ziryab and #12 Arqana

R5- Veloce Carro arrives here 2^nd up and is 2 from 2 previously at the same stage. He’s a multiple winner at both the track and distance and will benefit greatly from a ‘leg stretching’ trial recently at Cranbourne. The $6.50 on offer looks very appealing to my eye.

Bossy Nic is nearing another win and was going to be right in the finish last start before copping severe interference, she has an affinity with this straight track and with better luck here will be right in the finish.

SA visitor Wiggum went very well down the straight at his last run, he is drawn out perfectly to be released with a late flourish and can finish over them if it is run to suit.

The Matty Dale trained Gravina has performed well previously down the straight, one of those efforts in a far tougher grade than this, his horses should always be respected, he doesn’t travel them for the fun of it. He might be the blowout if there is going to be one.

Backing #4 Veloce Carro

R6- Rise At Dawn, fresh from a let up is the top pick here. This fella is unbeaten first up, loves the track, has never finished further back than 2^nd in 4 starts at the track, is 2 from 3 at the distance and Micky Dee is 2 wins from 2 rides, plenty of ticks. Another thing I like is he was sent for a spell at the top of his game before going for a break.

It’s A Wild Night is back after a brief let up and races best this way. Victorious in 8 races from only 17 starts he is a real winner; he has also won 4 of 5 at the 1400M. Mark Walker is a very astute trainer, and he will be ready to go here after a nice spin around at Cranbourne recently.

Poison Chalice also loves the 1400M and is a definite hope, as is Chorlton Lane who never runs a bad race.

Backing #6 Rise At Dawn

R7- Now this is almost a field job for quaddy takers. I’ve settled on Feroce and Henlein and found them difficult to split, both resuming, both targeting this race to kick off their preps.

Royal Insignia is racing in great from and will be the testing material and deserved favourite.

The Derby winner Goldrush Guru will improve sharply off its first up run in SA, it raced like it was there for a fitness effort, his presence here should be respected.

Wonder Boy can win if he turns up with his best game and Scary can unleash a powerful sprint, he will be finishing off hard late in the piece.

No Bet

R8- What a race this promises to be and so fitting that the race is now named in honour of the best sprinter our country has seen.

I’m going to speck he mare I Am Me to beat the 3yo champs. She flies first up, loves the track and trip and the firm track is also in her favour.

Switzerland is the obvious danger, his win in the Coolmore, where he donkey licked his rivals, stamped him as a superstar and future stallion of note. They will be hoping to keep him winning to enhance his stud value.

Growing Empire is another excellent colt with a great record in very good races, he will race handy and look to get a march on his rivals.

Skybird is one to put into your exotics, she is very good on her day and will run a big race at massive odds.

Traffic Warden can’t be dismissed either, he’s another outstanding colt.

Small play #6 I Am Me

R9- Good Sort is a good sort, a lovely Tassort filly. Waller has given her 2 nice trials in Sydney before bringing her here for this. JMac on, great barrier, I think the stable would like some black type for her here.

Sneaky Sunrise also resumes, she is another beautiful filly, her last preparation proved she is a professional racehorse with a serious will to win. A lovely trial at Cranbourne recently has her primed to go first up.

Captured By Love arrives here f rom NZ with nice form and some residual fitness, she is drawn perfectly and gets Shinn to steer, don’t leave her out of your multis.

Cillacap is an improving filly who will appreciate the open spaces of Flemington, watch for her late.

Backing #8 Good Sort

R10- We close out a great days racing with the best value play of the day in the shape of Euphoric. The shape of this race will suit this Greg Eurell trained gelding, I can see him sitting just off midfield and unleashing down the middle of the track late to score at good odds. He has excellent fresh form, has won at this course and trip also.

Is It Me was a good winner last start after a couple of unlucky efforts, he is always around the money and will run well again.

Sunshineinmypocket is flying at present and will be competitive again. The rails barrier mightn’t be the advantage it usually is by this time in the day and he rises again in grade. A hope, but not at sub $3 for mine.

It’s Business Time will improve off its first up and can run a race at big odds.

Backing #7 Euphoric

R3-2 best/day

R5-4

R6-6

R10-7

R10-7 best value play

R1-11x,4,3,2

R2-too hard, watching 3,4,6 unraced

R3-2xxx best/day,3,4,5

R4-8x,12…6,14

R5-4xx,5,8,2

R6-6xx,7…,9,4

R7-hard to split 6&10..3,1 improver,9??, 11 watch for it late

R8-6,11,10,9 knockout,12

R9-8x,4,2,5

R10-7xxgv,3,9,1

Best of luck if you’re playing.