Mick’s Mail: Flemington 11/1/2025

R1- An open race kicks off proceedings with the market appearing to it have worked out.

Team Payne hold a strong hand and their debut winner Stormy Grove is my top pick, his win at Geelong had plenty of merit, he is drawn perfectly for the race shape and Billy Egan is riding in career best form.

Rubiquity looks the toughest to beat, whilst a winner of only 1 of its 7 starts it has always shown ability and had no luck at all last start at Moonee Valley, to finish as close as he did suggests a good showing here.

Mr Markle is another from the Payne’s, he has kicked of his career with a win and a 2^nd, he can step up to metro class.

Xarpo has been excellent in his last 2 wins, she takes on the males, is drawn out a little and is having her 5^th start this prep which is always a query.

Backing #2 Stormy Grove

R2- An even race presents here; I’ve settled on Mr Verse to continue its winning way. This lightly raced gelding will appreciate the step out to 2000M, and his breeding supports this theory. I see him settling back off the speed and being very strong late. There has been early support (12’s into 10’s) which is another good sign, he is still excellent value to my eye.

Sigiriya Rock has obvious ability, evidenced by a win and 3 seconds from his brief 4 start career. My issue with him is the sticky barrier, he will need to be positive to take up an on-pace role, that may have him a little vulnerable late.

The SA visitor Guru Warrior arrives here off a tidy last start win with the young girl Taylor Johnstone assisting with a handy claim, she could be a claiming apprentice to follow from what I have noticed of her.

Kicking Kick will settle back and benefit from a decent speed, look for him to be running on late.

Backing #6 Mr Verse

R3- An even race with Seeking Stardom like Guru Warrior in the previous race, being another of the Gluyas/Johnstone combo and a winner of its last couple. She will get a perfect run for her pattern and hasn’t come over for the scenic trip, hard to beat.

Stylish, from the Maroney camp, will appreciate a firmer track, this mare is suited by a soft draw where she should sit just behind the leading group and look for a split in the straight.

Keep You Cool is racing in great form and will be thereabouts as will Smokin’ Princess.

Backing #3 Seeking Stardom

R4- The staying event of the day and these races can throw up a different winner each week. That said, Samuel Langhorne has had 2 nice fitness runs back from a spell, has decent ability, won at his only try at this course/distance and Blake McDougall has a great affinity with him. The $8 currently available seems a decent bet.

Lavish Thinker can pull out a big run on its day and the distance suits. The Stokes/Stockdale pairing should be respected also.

Convenor is racing below its best, a cushy barrier and a more positive ride could have him return to some form, I may speck it at massive odds.

Vivideel is hard fit now and should be somewhere near the placings.

Backing #3 Samuel Langhorne

R5- New York Lustre appears to be one of the better bets on the program. This lightly raced mare resumed in great fashion at Seymour, is drawn nicely for the straight race and finds moderate opposition.  She should win and anything better than $2 is value.

Trapeze Warrior will enjoy the drop back in distance and has claims, should there be a danger to the fave, then I suggest it’s this fella.

Mr Magnus is hard fit now and a contender, as is Elena Montero, who resumes and will make her own luck up on the speed.

Backing #5 New York Lustre

R6- The Team Hayes trained mare Ersa is well suited here. She has a very good 3^rd up record, gets in well after the claim and the barrier sets her up nicely for this, the $8 is juicy.

Enxuto is another who is now at peak fitness after 2 runs back from a spell, his recent effort at the track was good enough to think he can be close here.

La Fracas and Al Duca are also real contenders in an open race.

Backing #6 Ersa

R7- I’m hoping the emergency Name Dropper gets a run here, I have this horse marked a fraction of the $27 that is currently available. He is unbeaten fresh, the barrier will have him parked just off the speed, and he can reel off good sectionals late.

He’s Beset is another first up from a spell, he has never missed a place when resuming, loves the distance and the stable love setting them for a first up ‘kill’.

Flying Fizz is racing consistently and is deserved of her favouritism, she will prove tough to beat.

Kiko finds it hard to win but is honest and can fill a place.

Others to perhaps look to are Struck By, My Brothers Keeper and Georgie Get Mad.

Backing #20 Name Dropper

R8- A horse I have a huge opinion of returns in the shape of Wonder Boy. If you look at his form you will see he ran Growing Empire to a little over a length, that horse is Group 1 standard every day of the week. My only slight concern is barrier 1, that should be offset by horses looking to get to the centre of the track. The $5 available is nuts, I have him marked around $2.50.

The Prodigal Son can surprise at times, he has had a let up since a disappointing effort last start and Craig Widdison targeting this race says he is over that setback and is ready to run a big race at huge odds.

Pereille is a winner of over $500K and was stiff not to win in Sydney recently, he will be in the finish somewhere.

Aztec Ruler arrives from WA where he raced well over their carnival, he wins a 3^rd of his races and won’t be far away.

Backing #9 Wonder Boy

R9- The best bet on the card is Prince Eric, he is coming off 3 thirds this prep, has won forth up, loves the 1600M, draws perfectly and several of his opposition have slight negatives. The $4 is perfect and we may get slightly better, so I will be waiting.

Le Zebra is consistent although can find it hard to win, he gets a soft draw and Kah, both pluses.

Elphinstone won well last start; his barrier won’t help though.

So Risque is ready to improve now and is a trifecta chance.

Backing #8 Prince Eric

R10- Another tricky event to close out the day. I’m going with Redoute’s Night, I think there will be better than average pace that will suit this fella’s ‘get back’ racing pattern. He has never raced better and his only visit to this track/distance resulted in a victory.

Vongole has been ok this prep without winning, his last run showed he is close to saluting again, the $21 currently on offer looks overs to me.

Rewards And More and Sisterhood are both good chances in an even event.

Backing #9 Redoute’s Night

R5-5

R8-9

R9-8 best/day

R2-6

R7-20

R1-open race 2,6,4,3

R2-6x gv,2,7,3

R3-3,8,2,1

R4-3x,9,4 improver,7

R5-5xx,4,6,8

R6-6x,12,7,9

R7-20ew,5,15,13

R8-9xx,7 knockout,5,1

R9-8xxx best/day,10,11,2

R10-9x,5 improver,10,16

Best of luck if you’re playing.