Mick’s Mail: Flemington 07/06/2025

R1- We kick off proceedings with a competitive 2500M BM 84 race. I quite like the improving stayer Muktamil. Recent racing has prepared him for this trip and the stable have always expressed that they wanted to get him out to this trip. I am banking on him being ridden quietly and building into the race from the 600M. A significant point to make is that he drops a massive 7kgs on his latest effort and that will go a long way towards him being victorious.

United Nations will appreciate the trip and conditions, he is the main danger and is rock hard fit now.

Samuel Langhorne is a dour stayer suited by the step up in distance, he will run an honest race, as will Bold Soul who is lining up for the 3^rd Saturday in a row, the Payne camp must have him happy and healthy.

Backing #7 Muktamil (1 unit)

R2- A 2yo race with limited exposed form awaits us here, as a result I will be watching on from a future viewpoint.

Of the raced brigade Miss Ole was excellent last start and will be the testing material.

From those unraced I’m keen to see the beautifully bred Santana, connections will be hoping its race day performances are as electrifying as its namesake.

No Bet

R3- I quite like this race from a betting viewpoint.

Firstly, Dream All Day resumes and this race looks the perfect set up. She will settle midfield off a decent speed and be strong late. The claim from Luke Cartwright will assist hugely as it now gets in under the limit. Other positives to note are its love of the track/distance, ability to handle rain affected ground and she also goes great first up.

One I also want to be on at huge odds is Brave Miss, she is another who races best when fresh and the 1400M fits perfectly with her being a winner at the trip. Whilst she has had a year off, she is well schooled for this with 2 jump outs and a recent barrier trial. Her affected track record is almost perfect too with 5 starts on soft tracks for 3 wins and a second. The $20 seems generous, I have her marked less than half that price.

Jazz Affair and Stylish round out my selections in a race that I am keen to be in.

Backing #10 Dream All Day (1.5 units) and #9 Brave Miss (1 unit)

R4- A tricky event and I’ve settled on Soft Love, this lovely daughter of Pierata had a trip to Scone recently for a ‘listed’ race where she acquitted herself admirably running 7^th and beaten less than 2 lengths from the winner. She returns here to a trip she has had good success at and back on her Melbourne ‘leg’. The only query is how she will handle the sticky surface, if she gets through it ok, she will go very close.

Runlikenencryption is progressing along nicely and will provide good opposition, she has won 2 of 3 and ran a place at her only other start. I see her sitting back off them and coming with a run at them from the 200M, she stormed home to win at Wangaratta two starts back and a repeat will have her in the finish. She has also handled the trip down the straight and a soft track recently, another excellent pointer for this.

Romani Ite Domum resumes and is a chance as is Sun Setting who is racing in great heart winning both starts since a spell.

Backing #4 Soft Love and #7 Runlikenencryption (both half units)

R5- Jimmy The Bear was outstanding for us last Saturday and I think he can do us another favour this week. At times he has promised and hasn’t delivered and last weeks race was the perfect set up for him. What I particularly liked was his last 200M, he looked in control and looked in total control. This seems a similar set up albeit I’m not a huge fan of claiming apprentices in non-claiming races. That said, he must have done well in the stable this week and a repeat effort will have him winning again.

Magnaspin was nice winner 2^nd up at Sandown and he looks to get a similar run here. He is a good Winter horse who loves affected ground, he will be around the money at the finish.

Oh Too Good is an honest mare who was swamped late last start, if she is gifted a soft lead she may prove tough to run down.

New York Hurricane will have benefitted from his two runs back from a spell and can improve dramatically here, he has a decent outsider’s chance at around $26.

Backing #3 Jimmy The Bear (1.5 units)

R6- Narbold appeals to me here. This lovely son of Churchill peaks here after 3 runs this time in, he has performed well at Flemington previously, the distance is to his liking, and he handles soft conditions. Forth up, barrier 6 is perfect and Harry Coffey will give him every chance, the $10 appears to be luxurious.

Taken is flying this prep and will be hard to beat again. He has had one start at the distance for a win and has never missed a place on wet ground, I’m a little perplexed as to why the market is against him, that’s fine though, they aren’t always right.

King Of Enterprise is racing very well and had zero luck last start, he must go into quaddy, as will Dark Simba who will need luck from the draw but is too good to dismiss.

Backing #11 Narbold (1.5 units)

R7- This is a deadest lottery, as a result I’ve gone way out wide in search of some value plays.

The first of those is Ardakan, this import from the Maher yard didn’t show a great deal at his first Australian start since almost 2 years off from a tendon injury. His form suggests he is always better after a run after a break and on speck alone I want to have a small bet on him. His overseas form is above average, and he loves a wet track, the $26 is appealing.

My other speculator is Virtuous Circle, this fella has decent form lines back through his career and at his best will be in the finish here. He is fit now after 3 runs back, the drop back in distance suits as does the 3kg claim. Another positive is he performs best with the cut out of the ground, at $67 he is worth a small ticket also.

Ruakaka Raider was plain last start after an excellent first up run. There were excuses that day and I can see him improving off that effort. He gets in here with no weight and has excellent soft track form.

Liberami justified the support last start and went like a jet, if he runs up to that then he can win this too. The $2.70 is too skinny for me though, he can certainly win, I just can’t back him at that price.

Backing #3 Ardakan and #5 Virtuous Circle (both half units)

R8- The days best bet presents here in the shape of Shockletz. This filly had some map and traffic issues last start and really attacked the line once it obtained clear running. The step out to 2000M suits perfectly, ‘Cuppa’ Coffey sticks and he has a great affinity with her. The only issue if there is any is the race shape, she will settle back in the field and hopefully they don’t walk in the run. If there is decent speed she will be winning, the $4.50 appeals greatly too.

Champagne Jenni won nicely albeit in weaker grade last start and will run the trip right out, she can figure in the placings.

I Only Wish is a lovely Puissance filly bred for a wet track trip and is racing well, along with Weather Delay who gets in with no weight, they can figure in the minor money.

Backing #7 Shockletz (2 units)

R9- We wind up proceedings with a dash down the famous Flemington straight. On wet tracks and late in the day its usually favourable to come down the grandstand rail, and that basis I’ve settled on Talbragar. This injury plagued galloper has been entered and scratched on several occasions in the past month, hopefully Julius Sandhu has him well for this assignment. At his best he would give this field a bath and that’s what im betting on here. Other points in his favour is the is drawn on the right side of the track, the straight track is better for his legs (no bends to encounter) and he loves wet tracks. The $15 will be a steal if everything lines up, I might add if he is good to go, he won’t be $15, so it might pay to bet now.

Rheinberg is well credentialled for this class and flies first up, he is the one who can storm over the top of them. He likes wet ground and is drawn perfectly, the $14 is a touch of overs and any market support should be respected. If you go back through his form it suggests he may not be a Flemington horse, that’s a furphy, he has been very close up behind horses that would win this in a canter.

True To Form is another out of the market runner who can run a cheeky race, it will have benefitted greatly from its first up run and can be prominent against this lot.

Namesake was gritty when winning last Saturday and the decision to race 7 days later suggests he has benefitted from that outing. A repeat will have him go close.

Backing #9 Talbragar and #3 Rheinberg (both 1 unit)

R5-3

R6-11

R8-7 Best of the day

R3-9

R9-9

R1-7x,1,6,2

R2-limited exposed form, 2 (raced), 4 (unraced)

R3-backing 10x and 9v…12,6

R4-tricky 4,7,11,12

R5-3xx,2,5,8

R6-11xx,7,5,10

R7-lottery…small bets 3&5, then 15,13

R8-7xxx best/day,9,5,12

R9-9v,3..8,3

Best of luck if you’re having a play.