Mick’s Mail: Cox Plate 2024

Cox Plate Day, and whilst it’s slightly down on the quality we have encountered in previous years, there is still plenty of intrigue in this years big race. Can Pride Of Jenni lead all the way, will the Japanese import Prognosis conquer the locals, what effect did 3 laps of the Valley have on Via Sistina during the week, is it a 3yo’s year, will the champ Mr Brightside go one better? So many questions to be answered, one thing is for sure, it’s going to be a great race.

R1-9x,save 5,10,2

R2-5x,&1…3,2

R3-8xx,1 improver,7,6

R4-9xxx best/day, 2,7,1

R5-4xx,1…..3,7 not hopeless

R6-4,2,6,3

R7-5x,2,6,8

R8-11xx,1,2,4

R9-8,saving 9,2,7

R10-3x,6,8,5

R1-9x,save 5,10,2

R2-5x,&1…3,2

R3-8xx,1 improver,7,6

R4-9xxx best/day, 2,7,1

R5-4xx,1…..3,7 not hopeless

R6-4,2,6,3

R7-5x,2,6,8

R8-11xx,1,2,4

R9-8,saving 9,2,7

R10-3x,6,8,5

BEST VALUE BETS

R1-5

R9-8

R10-3 best value play

Frilled comes out on top here, she loves the Valley, flies 2^nd up, is drawn to get free air unlike last start, and her track (2 from 3) – distance (5 from 8) stats are first class.

I will also be backing Lempicka, she also has excellent figures at the distance and was placed at her only visit to the track. She is another who improves significantly after one run back and her resuming effort was a complete forget (plenty of excuses and in inferior ground).

Holy Racket and Katsu are both handy horses and can figure.

Backing #9 Frilled and #5 Lempicka

Sydney visitor Ikasara looks the testing material, he has performed very well at his 3 outings thus far, will make his own luck from the front and his recent very creditable runs have been against the best of his age.

Bittercreek is an interesting runner, he has wintered in QLD and comes here after one run back against quality opposition. His closing sectionals were very good there. He will settle back off the pace and if things go to plan will be storming home late in piece.

Bosustow and Pisces have both shown that they are above average so far in their careers and wouldn’t surprise if either were victorious.

Backing #5 Ikasara and saving on #1 Bittercreek

Back to her own sex here, I see her camping just off them and unleashing her sprint on the corner to win. Love the booking of Zahra too.

Eneeza is a horse I have always had a healthy opinion of and I’m happy to forgive her last run. If she returns to her best then she will give this an almighty shake. The stable has always thought of her as top class and she has been tested at the highest level, their faith is reinforced by the fact that she has already earned in excess of a million dollars.

Certain Rise is improving steeply off each of her 2 runs and will be more than competitive here as will Tessa’s Choice who is better than a $21 chance.

Backing #8 Savagery Vibe

I really liked her debut win at Ballarat over 1400M and the rise to the mile looks perfect. She is drawn to get a sweet run, Micky Dee to give her a peach and the $6 looks an outstanding price to me against a field where I can’t see any world beaters.

In Her Eyes was a complete forget last start, she will sit in the back half of the field and be strong late, I think the race shape will suit those off the pace here.

Polymania comes here off solid enough Sydney form, the astute team of O’Shea/Charlton aren’t bringing her here for the scenic trip, this has been a target race this prep, if she performs well the Oaks may be where she heads.

Cavity Bay is honest and will be thereabouts.

Backing #9 Double Market

He is drawn to get a cushy run, loves the trip and his opposition are either out of form or pass their best. He should win again.

Future History is the obvious danger if there is one, he is cherry ripe now, goes well at the track/distance and performs well fourth run in.

Gear Up will be competitive and Promises Kept can fill a placing at massive odds.

Backing #4 Kingswood

I have settled on Politely Dun from Red Aces. Both horses are heading towards the Derby and will be strong late.

King Of Thunder interests me moving forward, I think he has the greatest scope for improvement over the coming month.

Firm Agreement is another chance although he isn’t any value at present.

Given the tricky form lines, suspect race pattern and compressed market I will be sitting out.

No Bet

Oscar’s Fortune was a sensational run at his first run over from WA, my query with him is where he settles off a very hot speed and if he was flattened off his recent run. He is a horse of serious ability that’s for sure.

Talbragar can figure at massive odds if they decide to take a sit behind the leaders, he is very good on his day albeit his career has been start/stop due to numerous injuries.

Baraqiel is as honest as the day is long and will be in the finish.

Backing #5 I Am Unstoppable

The lightly raced mare Plenty Of Ammo stands out for me. At her last start she was compressed back on the fence and didn’t obtain clear running until the race was over. I see her sitting just off the speed here and unleashing coming to the corner and putting a gap on them, the $4.80 seems a luxurious price.

Uncle Bryn returned to form last start and can go on with it here, my query with him is him getting stuck back on the fence back in the field. If they take off early he might get a good run through and storm home late.

Von Hauke has always shown above average ability and should be ready to fire after 2 runs back from a break.

Nugget would be winning on his best numbers; I’m concerned that ship has sailed.

Backing #11 Plent Of Ammo

I’m backing the two 3-year-olds given their huge weight advantage.

Broadsiding off its enormous win in the Golden Rose showed it do the unthinkable and that’s what it takes to win Cox Plates. He will get every chance to settle midfield off a decent clip and with its light weight steal a march rounding the turn and be too good.

Evaporate is a little forgotten here, he will position up nicely in the run just off Pride Of Jenni and with a few question marks around the opposition could be the ‘smokey’ at $21+.

The Japanese raider Prognosis arrives with excellent credentials although his barrier manners and race map put a few question marks over him. That said, if they overcook it with the pace he could storm over the top of them.

Via Sistina has an undeniable chance, the little issue during the week has me more than a tad worried. A win wouldn’t surprise though.

Pride Of Jenni will attempt to run them ragged, if she does so they will cheer the grandstands down, I niggling concern is her tough campaign and the number of gut busting runs she’s had.

Backing #8 Broadsiding and saving on #9 Evaporate

I like Molly Bloom here and I’m expecting her to improve markedly off her first two runs back from a break. She is rock hard fit, drops plenty into this class and needs the 2000M. Around $10 she will do me.

Her stablemate Firestorm will be the testing material, its run in the Epsom had merit, she needs this trip now and drops significantly in grade.

Private Legacy is a lovely mare who has ability and can figure, she does find it hard to be first home though.

Little Mix will settle back and come with a big run late, if the track is tending towards ‘run on’ horses later in the day then it will improve its chances dramatically.

Backing #3 Molly Bloom

Last week’s results

Suggested Bet (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 14

Return – 14.4

ROI +2.86%

All selections (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 44

Return – 80.5

ROI +82.95%

Best of luck if you’re playing.