Mick’s Mail: Caulfield 31/05/2025

R1- A 2yo event kicks off the day, given the limited exposed form its difficult to make a true assessment.

Of the raced brigade, I like what I saw of Millennium Blade, he looks like he will only improve off his debut effort.

The Real Man is one to keep an eye on from as he commences his racing career. It is beautifully bred and a half brother to the Group 1 winner in Skybird. If he has half his sibling’s ability, then he will give this a shake.

No Bet

R2- One of the better bets on the card presents here in the shape of Illative. She has always showed good ability and her two runs back from a spell suggest a return to the winners list isn’t far away. The race shape suits perfectly, her two wins have both been at this trip and when 3^rd up, which she is here.

Splash Back returns from a spell boasting a near flawless first up record. She will settle in the back half of the field, as is her usual pattern, and look to finish off over the top of them. She hails from the Begg stable, so that ensures she will be ready to go, Tom Prebble’s claim is another bonus, he is riding very well at present.

Happy Link is lightly raced and goes well, she has a victory over Treasurethemoment which stamps her ability. Also, a winner at her only start when 2^nd up. The $19 currently seems over the odds.

Star Sirius is racing in great heart and will be thereabouts.

Backing #9 Illative

R3- I’ve gone looking for value here given I think the favourite is poor value. With that I will be backing 2 runners.  Firstly, the Hayes trained Just For Show. This ultra-consistent fella hasn’t missed a place in his 9 starts. I see him getting a perfect run, midfield one off the fence, and producing at the right time. The $10 is well over what I have him marked.

No Fooling has done all that has been asked of him with 2 wins from 2 starts. Whilst he is up in grade from the provincial wins, I think he has the scope to take the next step. Another huge plus is he drops a massive 8.5kgs off his Pakenham victory. He wont know himself.

The well-travelled Snack Bar is an honest conveyance, he hasn’t had much luck in his latest runs, and he can improve here from the rail’s barrier.

Big Swinger was very good when winning first up, his latest effort in Sydney was ok without being great. They have freshened him up after the trip north and had a leg stretching trial at Caulfield recently, where he wasn’t asked to do much. He is a definite chance although the $2.50 is way under the odds on my assessments.

Backing #3 Just For Show and #10 No Fooling (both half units)

R4- There is an excellent value bet here with Brave Miss. A lightly raced and honest mare having only missed a place once in her 7 starts. Whilst this is her toughest test to date, I think she can overcome the class rise. Barrier 1, the 1400M is ideal whilst fresh, and at $14 is a great each way bet. She will need a touch of luck from the 300M, Luke Currie will do his best to slice through them to score.

The last start Waller trained winner Sound It Out is another I want to be on, regally bred and with above average ability, her win at Kyneton points to greater improvement coming. The barrier and a favourable map are also positives. I’ll be backing both.

Extreme Virtue was good when resuming as was Stylish, both can figure.

Backing #7 Brave Miss and #11 Sound It Out (both half units)

R5- A tricky race and not one I want to get overly excited by.

The Matty Williams trained Colour Our World is my top pick. Whilst only winning one of nine starts, this filly has run a host of excellent placings. A soft draw and stepping out to 1600M are both in her favour.

Madiyya has rightfully earned favouritism here, her past 2 victories have been very good, and she can continue her winning ways here. The outside barrier and her racing pattern make it tough to be taking $2.60. She is good enough to overcome and win, just not at that price for me.

Lady Sadler can improve off recent efforts and could be the smokey at big odds. All Business has ok last week, and the 7-day back up has appeal.

No Bet

R6- The days best bet appears here with Jimmy The Bear. His run when resuming behind War Machine showed he has come back in great shape, that form was franked last Saturday with War Machine winning again and is now being touted as a leading chance in the Stradbroke soon. All throughout his career he has improved off his return run, should he have taken no harm from that effort, and with enhanced fitness levels, he will give this lot a cold. The $4.20 is luxurious, I have him marked almost half that.

Charterhouse has a good run in him and can improve, he goes well 2^nd up and will appreciate the rise in distance.

Verdad is always competitive, and is a chance, as is Milford who wasn’t disgraced first up and is better than a $61 hope.

Backing #3 Jimmy The Bear (2 units)

R7- Another race I can’t get too enthused over. Wonder Kid is my on top selection, his win last start at this track n trip was very good albeit somewhat unexpected. He’s a big headstrong horse who will need to mend his ways to be a consistent threat. Just on natural ability alone, and at this class, he may still be too good for them. Lookout next prep, we may see a serious horse in this fella.

Mirzann has ok when resuming, he will take enormous benefit off that run and will appreciate the step out to 2000M.

Dublin Journal is a capable type who can figure as might Bold Soul who was steady last Saturday when well fancied in a slightly harder race.

No Bet

R8- The lovely mare Niance returns from a spell here and she should be too good for this lot. Having been beautifully placed through her career she has retuned 6 wins from only 10 starts. She is unbeaten first up, draws to get a nice run off the pace and I see her cutting loose from the 250M and exploding away. *A point to note, Jordan Childs has forgone this ride to steer two horses at Eagle Farm, both at big odds, perhaps that’s a small tip itself.

Recommendation is a silly price at $11, this horse has raced at the highest level during its career and flies first up, and at Caulfield, and at 1100M. I must have a small saver on him, he’s too good a horse to dismiss.

Cleo Cat is racing well and must go into the exotics as does Midwest who is rarely far away.

Backing #7 Niance (1.5 units) and #1 Recommendation (half a unit)

R9- A big field with many chances closes out the day. I am backing the Matt Laurie trained Miss Icelandic. She was sent north after her spell and resumed with a nice win at Randwick. Her next run at Scone wasn’t her, she fizzed up, was vetted and then missed the start. The return home will assist, and she is a winner, very few horses win 7 of 19 starts. The $11 seems a good play to me.

I will also be equal staking on Dirty Grin, this Nick Ryan trained gelding is in career best form and gets in well here. Two starts back he wasn’t far away behind King Zephyr and drops 4kgs on that run. He had a nice tick over jump out last week in readiness for this.

Don’t leave Place Of Gold out of your quaddies, he goes well fresh and will be storming home. If the track is showing that run on horses are a chance, then the $46 will be way over the odds.

Chinqui is a nice horse with good ability, it sneaks in here with no weight and could surprise.

Backing #7 Miss Icelandic and #16 Dirty Grin

R2-9

R6-3 best/day

R8-7

R4-7

R9-7

R1-limited form 2 of the raced perhaps, 6??

R2-9xx,6,11,8

R3-3 and 10…4,1

R4-7x value &11…1,4

R5-tricky 8,2,11,7

R6-3xxx best/day,5 improve,7,6 fluker

R7-4,12,6,1 no confidence 

R8-7xx,1…10,3

R9-7x value, saving 16….3 huge odds,17

Best of luck if you’re playing.