Mick’s Mail: Caulfield 30/11/2024

R1- To kick proceedings off I like the Matt Laurie trained Hiyaam Proud to get us away on the right leg, he has been very consistent albeit without posting a win this prep and I see that being remedied here. His effort last start at this track was very good and this looks an easier assignment.

Autumn Slide has won 3 on the bounce and is progressing nicely through the grades, she gets in with no weight on her back after the claim and as the old saying goes, “the more you win, the better the price”.

Private Jumbo won well last start and must go in, along with Easy Dun who is ready now after 3 runs back for a let up.

Backing #6 Hiyaam Proud

R2- Hard to assess given so many first starters, Usain Boss looks a likely type off its jump outs, I will be paying close attention to him.

Other notables are Salty Pearl and Wiltshire Square.

No Bet

R3- An open staying event with several excellent chances, as a result I won’t be playing too heavily.

I have the Waller trained Kadavar on top off his last start Rosehill victory, whilst he didn’t beat much I really liked the way he finished through the line. He’s beautifully bred, lightly raced, and boasts a decent record (4 wins from 11 starts).

Divus Romulus should be ready now after 2 runs back from a let up and this trip suits perfectly. Nick Ryans team is racing very well, he’s an astute horseman and should always be respected.

Alma Rise is airborne and has never finished worse than 2^nd in her 6-start career, she maps well and will be in the finish.

Convenor has had excuses in his last few outings and could improve dramatically, he has decent ability on his day.

Small play #11 Kadavar

R4- The regally bred, $1.1M filly On Display was very good late in her resuming effort at this track a fortnight ago, her closing sectionals were outstanding and I’m anticipating a race shape that will suit her run on style. Look for her to storm over the top of them late.

She’s Got Pizzazz was also good in the race On Display contested, she is drawn to get the pea run and gets Shinn to steer, will prove tough to beat.

Grinzinger Pod is another from the same race and should sit a little more forward than last start from the better barrier, she’s right in the mix.

Supercilious had excuses last start and her effort in the Crockett was nice, back in distance is also a plus.

Backing #12 On Display

R5- Fancify is my top pick here, the way this SA trained mare won last start at Flemington was the sign of a progressive horse. There are plenty of other pointers to suggest she will go close, 7 wins from 13 starts, unbeaten at the distance, jockey is 2 from 2 on her and she saluted at her only visit to Caulfield. The $3 is very appealing to me.

I Am Unstoppable is the clear danger, his last start effort should be ignored as it was against the best sprinters in the country, he drops several grades back to this and his 2^nd placing to the exciting Baraquiel the run before that was full of merit. If Baraquiel was in this race it would be $1.70 or shorter.

Garza Blanca has above average ability and should run well as will the resuming Cottee.

Backing #3 Fancify

R6- I’m heading away from the fancied runners here and tipping Cachink. This son of So You Think was outstanding last start at Moonee Valley, he had to work hard to get up outside the lead and had the audacity to keep grinding to the line, a lesser horse would have capitulated given the amount of pressure it received. Given he should get a lovely soft run just behind the speed I think he is a wonderful each way bet around the $16 mark.

Snitzanova was wide in the Spring Stakes at Newcastle last time out, she showed her class and finished over the top of them to win convincingly, natural improvement, a good barrier and Micky Dee stands her in good stead here.

Pisces has been very good recently; he is a classy conveyance and is a definite hope. The barrier and the short price are slight negatives for me, although he is the testing material.

French Ruler is racing in great heart, he gets Shinn and favourable barrier, him winning wont surprise.

Backing #6 Cachink each way

R7- My best bet on the program is New Energy, whilst he hasn’t won this prep his runs have all had decent merit. He has been close up in super-hot races recently (Mr Brightside, Ceowulf etc) drops several grades here, and the $4.50 is succulent to my eye.
Poison Chalice has performed well this prep and Globe franked that form last Saturday, whilst he is up in class he continues to race well and maps to get a great run.

Charterhouse is a capable horse I this grade and can pull out a big run on his day, if he does that here then he must be considered.

Ain’tnodeeldun has had two runs back and is ready to peak, he loves the trip and flies 3^rd up.

Betting up #2 New Energy

R8- The Bjorn Baker trained Arapaho will prove tough to beat here, he is a high-class horse typified by being a winner of more than $2M in prizemoney. He maps to get a sweet run, flies at his 4^th run in, Rachel King has an excellent record on him.

Nonconformist might be getting on in years, but recent efforts show he has more good runs in him. On his day, he is right there with top class horses, one of those efforts could be right here.

Kingswood is lightly raced and well performed, this weight scale doesn’t really suit although many fit into that category here, he should sit prominently and give a bold sight.

Mankayan could be the knockout, has a distinct Maher look about his set up.

Backing #3 Arapaho

R9- I’m looking to speck Welwal here, he resumes for a new stable and has a decent record fresh. The kick off at 1400M looks ideal and the $21 suits each way.

Tuvalu is the class runner and will prove to beat, he’s a seriously good horse on his day albeit there can be 2 versions of him, if the best one turns up then he might just blow them away, $2.60 is a little skinny for my liking to find out.

Arkansaw Kid is also very good on his day, he had no luck last Saturday at Cranbourne, the 7-day back up says all is good and that effort should be disregarded.

Snow Patrol resumes here and has several positive aspects, Zahra on, a cushy draw, unbeaten first up and one from one at the track, he’s better than a $21 chance.

Backing #5 Welwal each way

R10- A very open race to finish, as a result I am prepared to give Mollynickers another chance. She has been a little all over the place this prep, unsuitable tracks, poor rides, bad maps etc etc. She gets her preferred soft surface here and around $10 is worth a small ticket, at her best she is a good horse.

Queues Likely visits from Sydney and she loves it wet, is two from two when 3^rd up and the $23 is juicy, definitely worth a saver.

Running By is the danger, she’s having a very good prep with her only failure on a very wet deck. She doesn’t want it any worse than a slow 6 and if the track stays in that range hen she is a winning hope.

Elphinstone also performs well after a couple of runs and has a better that $20 chance.

Backing #10 Mollynickers and #3 Queues Likely

R1-6

R4-12

R5-3

R7-2 best of the day

R8-3

R6-6

R9-5

R1-6xx,10,7,11

R2-big watch 5???,10&13??

R3-11,15,12,8

R4-12xx,2,5,1

R5-3xx,1,8,4

R6-6xx gv,10,2,5

R7-2xxx best/day,12,5,3

R8-3xx,2,14,9 knockout

R9-5 value,1,2,8

R10-10,3 improver,5,6

Best of luck if you’re playing.