Mick’s Mail: Caulfield 22/02/2025

R1- We get things underway and Ponderlowie is my on top pick. This mare arrives here 2^nd up, she performs well after one run back, has no weight on her back after Jett Stanley’s claim, and can reel off smart sectionals late. I see her finishing too well with race tempo not being too big a factor given the small field.

Tonkin is unbeaten this time in and is the obvious danger, she will look to dictate the race on the speed and Craig Williams will give her every hope.

Miss Aria is the class runner albeit she must give weight to all her rivals and the barrier is a little sticky, that said Blake Shinn will be doing his best to overcome those obstacles.

Samangu is racing very well, and the stable is flying, she must be considered.

Backing #3 Pondalowie

R2- I think Legio Ten can return to the winners list here with a little luck. He has a good 2^nd up record and will be better for the run after his first up effort for his new stable. Gavin Bedggood has a fabulous knack with getting these types of horses improving and I’m hoping Jamie Mott can get him some cover early and finish well late in the piece.

The lightly raced Winnasedge has good ability and will be the testing material. He has a very good trainer in Nick Ryan and an outstanding rider in Micky Dee, the 1100M is perfect for him at this stage also.

Beast Mode has more exposed form than most here, he is drawn perfectly to race on the speed and will peak 3^rd run back from a spell. His stablemate Luna Cat is another capable horse who can run a cheeky race at big odds.

Backing #5 Legio Ten

R3- This is one tricky little event, with race pattern playing a huge role given the small field and varying race patterns. Realistically every horse can win it.

I won’t be betting here although for the record I have them in this order – Emphasize, Imperialist, Scary and Entrusting.

Scary is the one I have most interest in from a future perspective, he could well be an AJC Derby horse if they bring him to Sydney.

No Bet

R4- A very even lot of emerging 3yo’s here and I’ve settled on the resuming Lofty Arch. This fella has showed up nicely in his work since coming back in and if he can find the front and settle ok then he will prove hard to run down. He had a propensity to over race in his first prep, hopefully now he is a little more mature he will behave himself more, if he settles well then he should win.

Polyglot has been very consistent in his career thus far; he will settle just off the speed and Melham will get him to the outside at the 250 and look to run down Lofty Arch. No one is riding better than Ben Melham at present.

Tropicus will be improved off his first run back from a spell and has very good ability, Zahra should give him a good ride from a cushy barrier, and he will be in the finish somewhere.

Sergeant Major resumes and will probably find some of these a little too slick at the 1200M, that said he goes very well and will be storming home late. If Lofty Arch overcooks it then this fella will be steaming home late and could knock them out.

Backing #1 Lofty Arch, small save on #5 Sergeant Major if he gets to a silly price.

R5- Benagil is a horse I have a big opinion of, and I think she will step up to another level this campaign. She was very close up behind some very smart horses in the Spring and with natural improvement can win a big race. I’ve got her mapped to be settling off midfield and hopefully the top two runners can put enough speed on for her to be swooping over them late.

Blake Shinn is a very good rider when leading and I can see him taking up the front on Too Darn Lizzie, if he is allowed to dictate then the race could be over by the corner.

Treasurethe Moment was outstanding in the Spring taking all before her, she is the class runner although Damian Lane will have to ride her a little more aggressively if they are to put pressure on Shinn, that’s a big if, as they won’t want her to have a ‘gut bust’ when they are far more lucrative races ahead for her.

Jenni The Fox could be the smoky, she has good ability and has a quick turn of foot.

Backing #5 Benagil

R6- My best bet of the day is Semana here; she returns to her own sex and her last run behind the very best around showed that a peak performance is not far away. Unbeaten 3^rd up, great jockey/trainer combo, loves the trip and drawn to get a soft run. The $3.80 on offer is luxurious!!!

Grinzinger Belle is very good on her day although a grade behind Semana, I think she can run 2^nd but can’t for the life of me understand how it is favourite. Think Semana will be by post time.

Coeur Volante is a winner at the track and distance and flies 2^nd up, she is a chance, as is So Glamorous who rarely runs a bad race.

Betting up on #4 Semana

R7- What a race this promises to be. I think I Wish I Win can overcome Mr Brightside for several reasons, barrier, first up stats, a good break from its last run and it hasn’t had a punishing run at its last start. Another pointer is price, I’d rather take $4.60 IWIW rather than $2 Mr B.

Mr Brightside is a fabulous horse and can obviously win, I just don’t want to take $2 when drawn the outside and off a brutal first up run.

Private Life is the emerging 3yo, he didn’t seem all that happy when stuck on the inside first up, he will appreciate being wide and coming with an unimpeded run.

Pericles is very good horse on his day, he is drawn soft, gets Shinn on, loves the distance, and usually goes well first up.

Backing #2 I Wish I Win

R8- The Blue Diamond and what an open race we have this year with no real standouts. I’ve settled on the Maher trained Cherish Me, she was very good on debut at Geelong and had a nice tick over jump out in readiness for this. She is drawn perfectly to get a lovely run off the speed and unleash at the 300M, she also has energy reserves to be explosive here.

Devil Night was excellent on debut, he will benefit greatly from the outing, from the draw he should do little work. He will need a little luck after straightening and if he gets that he will be in the finish.

Palm Angel will get a similar run to Devil Night, she has won 2 of 3 and goes very well.

Field Of Play is unbeaten in both his runs, drawn nicely, Shinn steers and he won’t be far away at the business end.

Miss Celine is ready to produce after 2 fitness efforts and could be the surprise package.

Backing #14 Cherish Me

R9- What a cracking race this promises to be. I am backing a couple of horses here, the first being the SA visitor Sghrripa, who has an excellent record at the track and trip and has never missed a place in 5 tries first up, he is drawn perfectly and gets Micky Dee to pilot.

The other is the toppy I Am Me who has excellent stats for this – 4 wins and two 3rds from 6 first up attempts, 5 wins from 7 goes at the distance and a 2^nd to the very good Magic Time at her only start at Caulfield. Nash comes down to ride which is a tip itself.

Estriella is an outstanding mare also, she will be competitive as will Rey Magnerio who never runs a bad race and was fabulous first up.

Backing #10 Sghrripa and #1 I Am Me

R10- We close out a great days racing with an even race of middle-distance stayers.

Dashing Duchess will benefit from her first up run and usually improves significant 2^nd up. She loves the 2000M and is drawn perfectly.

Touristic is cherry ripe after two runs this time in and I feel he is ready to produce, he is a bit of an ‘in n out’ customer, but his best would win this comfortably.

Etna Rosso is another ready to improve, he had the Waller/Lane combo to assist.

Deny Knowledge is a classy horse who might be a run short although the fact that they are producing him here first up should be respected.

Backing #8 Dashing Duchess

R1-3

R5-5

R6-4 best of the day

R2-5 best value play

R10-8

R1-3xx,7,1,5

R2-5gv,9,2,6

R3-tricky 5,2,1,3

R4-1,3,2,5 knockout

R5-5xx,2,1,9

R6-4xxx best/day,2,6,8

R7-2x,1,10,3

R8-14,5,9,1,12v

R9-backing 10x & 1…2,5

R10-8x,9,6,1

Best of luck if you’re playing.