Mick’s Mail: Caulfield 16/11/2024

Race 1- To kick off proceedings I really like Hiyaam Proud, after 2 excellent runs in he finds a suitable race and most importantly a great draw. Last start he drew the car park and was forced to travel wide the whole way, with a soft draw here I see Micky Dee giving him all the favours and him proving far too good.

Sure, from the Price/Kent yard is the danger, this lightly raced gelding has been very good in his 4 starts and has plenty of upside. He has won at the track which is a big plus around Caulfield.

Ruakaka Raider will suit getting out further in trip, like the others, he is lightly raced and very promising. I can see him furnishing into a lovely 2000M horse next prep. He has a chance here at good each way odds.

Goldenstatewarrior is the query runner first up, he has undeniable ability although from the wide barrier he will have to go back early and that may prove tough. Any market moves should be respected.

Backing #8 Hiyaam Proud

Race 2- I’m keen on a couple of resuming gallopers here in the shape of Helix and Lady Di Di, I’ll be backing both.

Helix commences his campaign is a grade slightly weaker than his best, gets the in-form Melham to steer and its racing pattern will suit sitting just off midfield and coming with a run once they enter the straight.

Lady Di Di will also sit back and finish off hard in the straight, she loves a dry track and at her best will give these a shake.

Tiffany Valentine is a consistent mare who rarely runs a bad race, she is drawn to take up a favourable spot and should be somewhere in the finish.

Pantelone also kicks off his prep here, boasts a decent record and is also a chance.

One who is way over the odds is Capo Strada, he will improve on his first up run, where he didn’t have much luck.

Backing #14 Helix and #11 Lady Di Di

Race 3- Another race where I think we can make a profit backing 2 runners, those being Belle Savoir and Little Jack.

Belle Savoir commences here at 1400m after a brief spell. I like that with this mare, she fires fresh and the kick off at the trip shows real intent to me. The inside draw and Zahra are further positives.

Litle Jack is its danger, he has won at both the track and distance with Jake Noonan being 1 from one on him. He saluted first up last prep, maps to get a nice cart into the race and be strong late.

Regal Vow is unbeaten 2^nd up and rarely is out of the placings, a bold showing can be expected from her.

Bigolino resumes after a couple of trials and usually performs well fresh, the 3kg claim from Tom Prebble will assist also.

Backing #4 Belle Savoir and #9 Little Jack

Race 4- An even race with not much between my top fancies.

I’ve settled on Catoggio, he was very good winning on Cup Day when leading, there is a pace query here and I can see him repeating the dose with a similar run.

Coleman drops back from the Group 1 Coolmore where he performed creditably, to a much weaker Group 3 race here, he’s a class horse although the $2.50 is a tad skinny for mine.

Pisces is ready now after an excellent first up run at the Valley, additionally, Rue De Royale returns off a brief freshen up and could surprise.

Backing #4 Catoggio

Race 5- The Begg trained Miraval Rose appeals to me here, she returns from a Brissy winter stint, draws perfectly and I see her exploding at the 250M and being way too good. She is a mare that will win plenty of races at this time of year.

Pharari is her danger, her last run should be overlooked, go on her previous runs where she was very good. My question mark with her is if she may be at the end of her campaign. This will tell us if that’s the case.

Celui is the knockout, he is rock hard fit after 3 runs back, Moor knows him well and he’s won at the track.

Kin is always a hope and should be considered.

Backing #6 Miraval Rose

Race 6- Legacy Bay appeals as a great value play to me. She was tucked away after failing on debut on a heavy track and resumed on top of the ground in a Sale Maiden and won easily. It was the manner in which she went about her work that showed me there is a good race in her, let’s hope it’s here.

Grinzinger Pod went super in the Crockett posting some lovely sectionals late, the draw maybe advantageous to her as I believe she will appreciate the extra galloping room.

She’s Got Pizzazz, is as honest as the day is long and had a soft win at Kilmore recently to give her confidence, she’s Saturday class for sure.

Rich Dottie was great at the Valley and a repeat of that effort will have her in the money here.

Backing #14 Legacy Bay

Race 7- Benagil is one I earmarked to win a decent race over the Spring and I’m giving her another chance here. She was very good late in a strong field on Derby Day, gets an extra 200M to wind up and I expect her to be finishing hard. I think this was always her target, where it may have been an afterthought for a few of her opposition.

Zeitung savaged the line when winning a fortnight ago, the manner of her victory suggested the 1600M would suit her fine, the barrier is a big help also.

Lovely  Cut worked too hard to gain a position last start, a better draw and softer run will see her run the trip right out, this has been her target race.

The Waller filly Aeliana beat the males in the Carbine Club super impressively, if she gets luck from the draw then then others might have a big problem with her.

Backing #11 Benagil, saving #4 Zeitung

Race 8- Milford is my pick to win this years Country Cup’s final. I think he meets a field lesser in grade to what he has experienced during his career. He has a great record at the track and the distance, the $17 is luxurious.

Jimi Hendrix is a massive query runner here, he flies 2^nd up and has a bit of class on his side, my concern with him is the slight setback since his first up effort. If he’s ok then he’s a huge threat.

Charterhouse had no luck when wide last start and put in a big run, he will get things easier here and should be in the mix.

New York Hurricane has been a bit of a revelation this campaign and Liam Howley’s team are racing very well.

Backing #3 Milford

Race 9- The merging superstar Another Wil is my best bet of the day. His stats tell it all, 12 starts for 8 wins, 4 goes at Caulfield for 3 wins, 5 goes at 1400M for 4 wins and a 2^nd, Jamie Kah 8 rides for 7 wins, $3.50, wow, betting up.

Jimmysstar also has great stats, and these 2 exciting horses look to have a stranglehold on the race.

The good mare Charm Stone will be competitive, as will War Machine who ran super in a tough race last start.

Backing #4 Another Wil

Race 10- An above average field of mares and I am backing Niance and Miss Roumbini here.

Niance improved her win ratio to 5 from 9 when resuming and did it in fair style, she makes her own luck in races which is a big asset here.

Miss Roumbini could be something very special, she is lightly raced, keeps improving with every run and can reel off crazy last sectionals. If the race is run to suit then she could blow them away late.

Infancy is ready to fire, and the luckless Sans Doute is too good to dismiss.

Backing #4 Niance and #9 Miss Roumbini

R1-8xx,7,13,3??

R2-14,11 good value fresh,16,6,3 over the odds and a hope

R3-4x & 9 value,13,2

R4-4,1,3,2

R5-6xx,7,3 knockout chance,5

R6-14x great value,11,7,3

R7-11 good value & 4…10,2

R8-3xx,2??,4,8

R9-4xxx best/day,7,10,15

R10-Backing 4&9..3,2

R1-8

R5-6

R8-3

R9-4 Best bet of the day

R2-11

R3-9

R6-14

R7-11

R8-3 Best value of the day

Bets – 9

Return – 5

ROI -44.4%

Bets – 33

Return – 41

ROI +24.24%

Best of luck if you’re playing.