Mick’s Mail: Ballarat

R1- We commence proceedings with a race for 2-year-olds with little exposed form.

From a future perspective I am keen to watch the Maher trained Pafitis; its first jump out was nice, the 2^nd was held in bleak conditions and provided little guide. I think this colt has good scope for the future.

No Bet

R2- Dream All Day is the standout pick for mine here, this mare was excellent in her first prep and returned in super style. The return to the same trip, and with a lovely draw, stamps her as the one they must beat.

Nimbustwothousand is a mouthful to pronounce but from his 2 career runs to date demonstrates that he won’t be a maiden for long, he finally draws in, races on pace and if left alone in front could prove tough to run down.

Juggernaut Joan, who won well when resuming and Just For Show, are others who have good chances.

Backing #3 Dream All Day

R3- In an extremely hard mares race I am looking away from the favourite and settling on Moor Mumm. Whilst her current form appears to be a little ‘iffy’, she has had excuses with race pattern and tracks not to her liking. The wide expanses of Ballarat will suit her run on style as will the give in the ground, she also returns to her own sex which will also assist. Look for her to be finishing off hard and the $26 is a great bet each way.

Under And Over has several ticks in her favour to suggest a forward showing, a good barrier, consistent performer, has won at her only start at the track and Harry Coffey has an excellent record on her winning 2 from 4 and a placing.

Kiko can find it hard to win, but is usually thereabouts and maps well, as does Extremely Rowdy who is hard fit after 3 runs back and won at her only start 4^th run in.

Backing #13 Moor Mumm each way

R4- Miss Roumbini is my best bet on the card. This mare can produce an explosive sprint, she is unbeaten 2^nd up, is drawn to go back and storm over the top of them. The barrier will play into her hands in my opinion and may also assist in snagging a better price. I like the 3 weeks between runs too, she is lightly raced, and I believe we are still to see the best of her.

Enna’s Dream has good ability, she goes well 2^nd up, likes a bit of give in the ground and will also appreciate the early speed in the race from the likes of Celui, Miraval Rose and Pharari.

Pharari is a good horse and will be somewhere in the placings, albeit she has been up for a while including a trip to Sydney, she may be a little vulnerable in the last 100M.

Celui may give some cheek if left alone in front and the track pattern is in his favour.

Backing #3 Miss Roumbini

R5- I’ve settled on the import Prince Eric here. At his first race here in Oz he got a little flat footed in the Donald Cup but his work through the line late was very good. I think he will appreciate the roomier track here and be wound up at the top of the straight and prove too strong for them.

That said, I have Little Jack not far behind in my assessments, he was excellent first up at Caulfield, flies 2^nd up and the step up to the mile fits perfectly. One of these two will win IMO, happy to back them both to show a profit.

Deakin is a query runner from the UK, whilst his form back home is at longer trips, I have a sneaking suspicion that he is ready to go fresh, Phillip Stokes is a very shrewd trainer, and any market moves should be respected.

Farhh Flung is racing well and is a trifecta hope.

Backing #5 Prince Eric and #8 Little Jack

R6- A tricky race to assess, I have settled on the resuming Paradise City. This mare is unbeaten first up and at the distance, she finds a race here that is a couple of grades easier than what she encountered last prep and at $12 is worth a small ticket.

Wakenjeja from the Stokes camp is the danger, she loves the trip, has won 3^rd up and the give in the ground is suitable also. Tom Prebble goes on and his 3kg claim will assist greatly.

Fickle is racing in great heart and can’t be denied, she will need luck early from a sticky gate. The barrier and her being unknown on wet surfaces make it hard to take the price on offer.

Don’t Hope Do is lightly raced and the knockout in the race, the best is yet to come from him.

Small bet #14 Paradise City

R7- Mrs Chrissie resumes here for the Maher team, she has raced against slightly better class horses than this, boasts a good first up record, and has won at this track/distance, Williams being on is another tick.

Deepour has had no luck at his 2 runs back and can improve drastically, look for him late.

Vagrant is a horse of real ability; things didn’t go right last prep and if she is anywhere near her best then look out. She doesn’t want it any wetter than it currently is though.

She Dances can pull out a big run fresh and the soft conditions will suit.

Backing #9 Mrs Chrissie

R8- The Busuttin/Young trained Shaiyhar appeals here at juicy odds; I’ve liked 2 of his 3 run this campaign, the only blemish being his trip to Sydney. His last run proved that aberration should be ignored when he unleashed the fastest last 200M split off a wide run at Flemington. He goes well at the trip and after a few runs in, the $16 appears over the odds.

Ruakaka Raider is airborne at present, he has raced through his grades, gets in on the limit weight and Stackhouse is in career best form. The barrier maybe perceived as a negative although he will go back and look to loop them from the 600M and sail down the outside.

Bold Soul is a stupid price at $34, at his best he will give these a shake, he might need another fitness run before he fires although the Payne’s are great conditioners of staying horses. Tom Prebble’s claim is a major plus for him also.

Sure is hard fit now after 3 runs back from a spell and is 2 from 2 on soft tracks.

Backing #3 Shaiyhar

R9- The Cup is an open affair this year and I’ve gone very wide in selecting Cadmus at around $34. His two runs back from a spell have been encouraging without setting the world on fire and he is looking for the step up in distance that he gets here. Last time in he beat a good horse in Pounding in conditions that he may find very similar here. They will ride him cold and if the track is supporting run on horses then he is a great each way hope.

Future History has a sense of Maher timing about it, the stable loves to target these types of races and his last run beaten 5L behind Via Sistina is about 10 grades better than this.

Poison Calice raced last Saturday in preparation for this, he won’t need to improve much off that to be a force here.

It’s A Wild Night was an absolute forgive run last start when he never got out, previous form was very good and Mark Walker is one of the best conditioners around, he must go in also.

Backing #17 Cadmus and #1 Future History

R10- The lucky last and the best value play of the meeting is the resuming Sir Atlas. Plenty of ticks with this fella, flies fresh, 1400M first up is ideal, great barrier for his positioning in the run, jockey has won on him previously and the grade suits. AT $10 he is a fabulous bet.

Saxon King is another who presents here fresh off decent OK form. Team Hayes has a knack with these overseas horses and their training centre suits this style of horse perfectly, if the money comes or him I suggest you join them.

Is It Me, is a hard fit after 2 runs this time in, loves a bit of give in the ground and is suited by what appears to be a good speed.

Dual Pressure should be ready to fire now and excels on rain affected going.

Backing #14 Sir Atlas

R2-3

R4-3 Best/day

R10-14

R3-13

R8-3

R9-17 Best/value

R1-watching 7

R2-3xxx,5,4,2

R3-13ew,6,5,9

R4-3xxx best/day,8,4,1

R5-5x,8…2???,6

R6-14,16,19,20

R7-9,6 improver,8 smokey,3

R8-3x gv,17,1 not hopeless,18

R9-17x gv,1,16,10

R10-14xx,11??,8,19

Best of luck if you’re playing.