MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW with Chris Scholtz

Let’s draw a line in the sand right from the start – this is not a vintage Melbourne Cup field!

The unexpected high attrition rate among leading contenders, for one reason or another, leaves us with a Melbourne Cup topweight of 55kg on a 50kg limit. While there is a good infusion of G1 winners, the star power is missing and with no minimum top weight condition after final acceptances it leaves 15 of the 24 acceptors carrying 52kg or less, a weight scale more akin to a run of the mill handicap.

Significantly the last four Melbourne Cup winners have carried 56.5kg (Without A Fight), 57.5kg (Gold Trip), 57kg (Verry Elleegant) and 55kg (Twilight Payment).

With a bow to Timeform, only one of the 20 highest rated horses in Australia this season is contesting this Melbourne Cup (BUCKAROO 124). Taking it further, only another eight local Melbourne Cup runners hold a current Timeform rating above 110 (KOVALICA 119; ZARDOZI 117; SHARP ‘N’ SMART 115; JUST FINE 115; LAND LEGEND 112; OKITA SOUSHI 111; CIRCLE OF FIRE 109; SAINT GEORGE 108). Topweight VAUBAN boasts the highest current UK Timeform rating of 119 among the overseas runners.

To give these figures perspective, the race rating of Melbourne Cup winners over the last 20 years has ranged from a low 117 to a high of 128, averaging out at 123. It suggests most if not all runners will have to rise to a new peak performance to win this Melbourne Cup.

I’m not going into the pros and cons of the qualifying conditions but it’s easy to see this is a Cup set to be dominated by the internationals and a handful of local representatives who have produced worthy Australian staying form this spring.

In that category I can rate only the ATC Metropolitan and the Caulfield Cup as the races where the local hopes shone brightest. The dominant wins by the overseas pair ONESMOOTHOPERATOR and SEA KING in the Geelong and Bendigo Cups put other spring prep races such as the Moonee Valley Cup (OKITA SOUSHI), Herbert Power, Bart Cummings (JUST FINE) and Archer Stakes in the shade.

On that score many locals can be dismissed as threats to the international contingent with the exception of BUCKAROO, ZARDOZI, LAND LEGEND and to a lesser extent INTERPRETATION.

Fastnet Rock’s imported son BUCKAROO has enjoyed a superb spring campaign, rising to new peaks in the best weight-for-age races before an excellent second in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) that answered questions about his stamina.

Given that we still recognise the Caulfield Cup as traditionally the best guide to the Melbourne Cup, BUCKAROO’s big finish on a Soft 6 for second behind Duke De Sessa (inexplicably missing from the Melbourne Cup field) with daylight to LAND LEGEND (3rd) and ZARDOZI (4th), makes him a worthy favourite for Tuesday’s grand final. The concession is the Caulfield Cup was run on a Soft 6 and the predicted rating for Flemington on Tuesday is a firmer Good 4.

BUCKAROO will be carrying only 54.5kg, runs as a virtual Caulfield Cup winner without a weight penalty and brings the best WFA form after his fighting photo finish second at his previous start in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) that followed his wins in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes (1600m) and G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m).

The Turnbull is the spring’s best form race. BUCKAROO carried 58kg and went stride for stride over the last 200m with the subsequent record breaking Cox Plate winner Via SIstina while conceding her 1kg under the wfa conditions. The subsequent G1 winners Duke De Sessa and Atishu were unplaced.

The Turnbull was only BUCKAROO’s second start at Flemington and while he is yet to win beyond 1800m his Caulfield Cup effort to come from 10 lengths behind Duke De Sessa at the 600m to be beaten only 1.25 lengths suggests Chris Waller has him primed to run 3200m on his ear.

Buckaroo’s stablemate LAND LEGEND came off his nose win over ZARDOZI in the ATC Metropolitan (2400m) at Randwick to finish third in the Caulfield Cup, five lengths behind BUCKAROO after running keenly and making a wide charge for the lead before the home turn.

The former UK-trained stayer had 10 months off after winning his Australian debut in the ATC St Leger (2600m) at Randwick last spring and was having just his second run back when he slugged out a tight win over ZARDOZI in the Metropolitan.

Flemington Oaks winner ZARDOZI finished fourth in the Caulfield Cup, two lengths behind LAND LEGEND when meeting him on 3kg better terms from the Metropolitan and they carry the same weights again on Tuesday. It’s hard to make a case for either turning the tables on BUCKAROO as they meet him on the same weight terms from the Caulfield Cup but both look well suited to a genuine 3200m test on a firmer deck at Flemington.

In a departure from the new norm for a Melbourne Cup runner we saw ZARDOZI given an extra prep run when she raced over 1600m in the G1 Empire Rose for her own sex at Flemington on Saturday. Her surging finish from the back half for fifth was reminiscent of the ‘trials’ we would see from Melbourne Cup runners in the Mackinnon Stakes and Hotham Handicap, those now defunct Derby Day prep races that were used so successfully over the years by the Cups King Bart Cummings.

It’s no coincidence that ZARDOZI is trained by Bart’s grandson James Cummings. Saturday’s effort confirmed that she is a genuine Flemington performer (2-1-4) with the right profile to add to the modern day record of mares in the Melbourne Cup (eight wins since 1988).

The import INTERPRETATION landed here in 2022 as a stakes winner in Ireland and will be having his third crack at a Melbourne Cup. He failed to finish in 2022 when eased down due to a wind issue but recovered well last spring to win the Bendigo Cup before coming from near last to finish sixth behind Without A Fight in the Melbourne Cup.

This time around INTERPRETATION produced a similar final Cup trial to last year when finishing hard for second to ONESMOOTHOPERATOR in the Geelong Cup (2400m) and as a member of the powerful Ciaron Maher team appeals one of the few local contenders holding good scope for improvement.

For added reference four Melbourne Cup winners since 2012 (Fiorente; Twilight Payment; Verry Elleegant; Without A Fight) won at their second attempt after defeats the previous year.

The question to be answered is whether the local spring form is good enough to repel the international challenge.

ONESMOOTHOPERATOR and SEA KING have already shown they are in top form by winning two recognised local lead-ups while there is little doubt the Willie Mullins-trained stablemates VAUBAN and ABSURDE are set to improve on their performances in last year’s Melbourne Cup.

VAUBAN, perhaps affected by an extremely hot day, compounded to finish 14^th as favourite 12 months ago while ABSURDE ran an even race to finish seventh after being in a striking position turning for home.

VAUBAN was the boom horse last year, landing here off big margin Listed and G3 wins in England and Ireland, and Mullins is adamant he had an off day at Flemington. He also says he has learned from last year’s experience by delaying the shipment of VAUBAN and ABSURDE to Melbourne as he felt they spent too long (four weeks) in the quarantine environment after arriving last spring compounded by a long break between races.

In VAUBAN’s case it was three months from his prior start in the UK to the Melbourne Cup – this year it’s only six weeks between starts and two weeks less in Melbourne.

The UK form of VAUBAN over the last 12 months is also superior to what he brought to the table last spring. The 7YO has raced five times this year in G1 and G2 races, finishing top four each time including a win in the G2 Lonsdale Cup (3319m) at York (the horse he beat won his next start at Newmarket by 8 lengths) and seconds in the G2 Yorkshire Cup (2816m) and G1 Irish St Leger (2816m) won by champion stayer Kyprios.

In those five races he has carried between 58.5kg and 62kg, underlining why he will find the low topweight of 55kg in the Melbourne Cup a luxury. This is supported by the view of wise observers that he is a much stronger physical specimen than 12 months ago.

ABSURDE, like VAUBAN in his early days, has successfully mixed flat racing with jumping. Last year he won the time honoured Ebor (2816m) on the flat at York before contesting the Melbourne Cup but since returning home has returned to going over the hurdles.

He won over the jumps (3419m on a heavy track) at the famous Cheltenham festival in March and convinced Mullins that he was up for a second visit to Melbourne after winning a Listed race over 2916m on the flat at Chester in August.

The Ebor has long been looked on as a strong Melbourne Cup guide. While no Ebor winner has won a Melbourne Cup, the York form invariably holds up well in Australia and that is again the case with both ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (7^th) and SEA KING (6^th) coming out of that race this year.

ONESMOOTHOPERATOR was regarded in the UK as an all-weather performer, having 26 of his 36 starts on synthetic tracks. All his four UK wins were recorded on the all-weather up to 3319m including the rich Northumberland Plate at Newcastle before his eye catching seventh in the Ebor.

He went to a new level trouncing his rivals in the Geelong Cup (2400m), a race that has become a significant Melbourne Cup reference since Irish stayer Media Puzzle won the double in 2002. Since 2002 another six Geelong Cup winners have either won the Melbourne Cup (Americain/Dunaden) or finished second at Flemington (On a Jeune, Bauer, Prince Of Arran, Emissary).

ONESMOOTHOPERATOR earned a 1kg penalty for his Geelong Cup win but still drops 3kg and only has to hold that form to figure prominently on Tuesday.

SEA KING had won five of his 18 starts on turf and synthetic in the UK up to 2639m and won two of his four starts prior to his Ebor sixth.

Like ONESMOOTHOPERATOR at Geelong, SEA KING was in a different class in the Bendigo Cup (2400m), a race that has come to the fore since a date change saw it replace the Werribee Cup as a Cup prelim in 2009. The past two winners of the Bendigo Cup – High Emocean and INTERPRETATION – went on to finish third and sixth in the Melbourne Cup.

SEA KING received a penalty of half a kilogram for his Bendigo Cup win, taking his weight to 50.5kg but still 4kg less than he carried last Wednesday when he was having his first start for his new trainer Harry Eustace.

He has drawn barrier one but that may work against him as he’s a long striding horse of considerable size who appreciated having room to move at Bendigo. Being locked away on the fence in a big field may not be his ideal scenario.

The last of the overseas runners is the Japanese stayer WARP KING. He failed to impress in the Caulfield Cup when he was beaten more than 16 lengths but if you are prepared to overlook that performance he has won four times from 2400m to 3000m and has never finished worse than fifth in five starts beyond 3000m.

ZARDOZI (barrier 4) is assured a soft run. ABSURDE (7) is also well drawn to run on pace while stablemates BUCKAROO (21) and LAND LEGEND (18) need clever tactical rides to overcome their wide gates. VAUBAN (11), ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (12) and INTERPRETATION (14) will get back but map to enjoy good runs with cover from their middle draws.

In summary there are few legitimate chances in this year’s Melbourne Cup where the class form will stand up on a good track.

MELBOURNE CUP SELECTIONS: (1) VAUBAN; ((2) Buckaroo; (13) Onesmoothoperator; (18) Interpretation; (8) Land Legend; (14) Zardozi; (15) Sea King