Horse Racing Tips: Flemington 2/08/2025

R4-9 best of the day

R5-14

R6-3 best value play

R1- Our day commences with a good quality 3yo race of a small but select field.

The Maher trained Exit looks the testing material, at its first start nothing went right, and it was immediately sent for a spell. Upon resumption it was very well fancied in the betting and exploded away from them late in the manner of a very nice horse. It now gets a plum draw, Shinn to ride, and a big open straight to balance up and show her impressive turn of foot. If there is a negative, it’s a case of the girl taking on the boys. The $2.10 is a little skinny for me though.

Crossbow for the Waller yard is the obvious danger, he has had 2 narrow defeats in Sydney recently and the small field will suit its racing pattern of getting back and running on, being drawn out should be a plus.

Our Chief toyed with them recently at Geelong and could control the race from the front here, if left alone he could prove tough to run down.

Emperor Tzu is beautifully bred and from its brief career has displayed some promise, as the races get longer it will be better suited. That said I think it’s a tad over the odds at $34.

No Bet

R2- The staying event of the day throws up a very even contest, with all runners having a good chance.

I went looking for some value here and came up with another Maher prepared horse in Ardakan. Going back a couple of years, this lightly raced ex European galloper was good enough to win an Italian Derby. He has now had 4 runs in Oz and whilst he hasn’t set the world on fire, he hasn’t been disgraced. He gets in well here under the limit following Prebble’s claim, draws nicely to take up a favourable position, and at $14 is worth a small ticket.

Casino Seventeen has now had 2 runs back from a let up and should now be ready to fire. He is a winner of $1.4M in prizemoney, is looking for the increase in trip, gets a nice claim for Luke Cartwright, and draws to get a cosy run.

Muktamil is now realising his potential and seems a far more genuine horse, he will be tough to beat. My slight concerns with him are the outside barrier, and the start stop nature of his preparation, that said he is a definite hope.

Bold Soul is racing consistently and will be thereabouts. Similarly to Muktamil, he has had a lot of racing over the past few months.

Backing #5 Ardakan (1 win unit)

R3- Our first foray down the straight for the day and this is a deadest lottery. If you are having an early quaddy then it could be a field job!

I ended up with 5 chances of varying degrees and I won’t be surprised if I’ve missed the winner.

In racebook order they are –

Bizot (drawn out of trouble, a good first up record, and handles soft ground)

Epic Proportions (another drawn out where I think it will be the place to be, a good last start winner, and gets nice weight relief from Hannah Edgley’s claim)

Raikoke (drawn out, unsuited last start and ready to improve)

De Bergerac (ultra consistent, great stable, nice weight relief from Prebble, drawn to advantage, loves soft tracks)

Big Watch (winner at both track and distance, great stable, excellent jockey, handles the wet, last win was over this the 1200M here, massive odds)

No Bet

R4- My best of the day shows up here with Documentary. This exciting horse wasn’t given the best of rides by Ben Melham when resuming and in my humble opinion should have won. He proved that day that straight track racing isn’t a worry, nor are soft tracks. He meets a number of those horses he raced that day, and all being equal will exact revenge. He draws perfectly to sit just off the speed on the outside of the leading pack and will catapult past them at the 150M mark.

Good to see Melham’s wife Jamie will be the one to show her husband how it’s done!!

Others with minor chances in the race are Eye Of The Fire, who will be ready to peak off two runs back and is drawn perfectly, Veloce Carro, who resumes here and is a first up winner and victor at this track/trip, and Losesomewinmore, who is flying this prep and loves the track/trip/soft ground.

Backing #9 Documentary (3 win units)

R5- The beautifully bred and progressive middle distance galloper Federer is my top pick here, and one of the better bets on the day. Whilst his recent efforts in Sydney look a shade disappointing on paper, my thoughts are that he is racing like a horse looking for 2000M+ and getting back on his Melbourne leg. He draws perfectly to get a soft run, Shinn goes on, and many of his dangers have very awkward gates. The $4 currently on offer appeals.

Aztec State won’t be disadvantaged by its draw as it will go right back early. He is ready to peak here after two runs back, has an excellent record 3^rd up and loves the track and trip. He will need a good speed to be running on late.

Morning Sun might be $51 but he’s one I’ve identified that could surprise. He might be better suited on a drier track, look for him soon as he has ability.

Paradise Storm is up in grade but can run a good race, he is drawn perfectly and will be strong at the business end of proceedings.

Backing #14 Federer (2 win units)

R6- Best value/day is Brayden Star, I’m banking on a reasonable speed to enable it to finish strongly late whilst fresh. Last time first up its was given little hope when squeezed up between runners, and still only finished 4L to a horse (Another Wil) that won multiple group 1’s after that day, including beating Mr Brightside. These are benchmark horses, not group horses. Daniel

Moor has won on him previously, has won first up and at the track. His wet form is ok too, with a win and a 2^nd from 4 runs. He also jumped out well recently to suggest he’s come back well. Gotta be a bet at $34.

Café Millenium may be the hardest to beat, whilst he can find it hard to win, he has above average ability. He’s had one start at the Flemington 1400M’s for one win and gets in here with no weight.

Zou Sensation and Green Fly are also contenders in a race where I can pick holes in many runners.

Backing #3 Brayden Star (1 win unit, 2 place units)

R7- The race of the day and I’m going to play two runners.

The first of those is the favourite and the horse with the greatest upside Splash Back. This highly talented mare is a winner of 50% of races she contests, and her racing style suggests she will be very well suited here.

Miss Aria is another quality mare; she resumes here and performs first up. From the gate she will go back, there is a slight query about the speed, although if they overcook it then she will be the one flying home.

Marble Nine is going for four on end and must be considered, he loves the track and trip and will control the speed.

One to throw in the exotics is Bandis Boy, it loves the 1200M and goes well 2^nd up.

Backing #11 Splash back (1.5 win units) #7 Miss Aria (0.5 win units)

R8- The lightly raced and ultra consistent One Long Day will be very hard to beat here. Plenty of ticks, unbeaten 2^nd up, loves the track/trip, John Allen has an undeniable record on him, and he draws nicely to get the perfect run.

Too Darn Discreet can be very good on her day and must go in. She has good stats at track, trip and on rain affected going. The race map looks to suit her also.

El Soleado is ready to improve, he has a fabulous record at the course and distance, and the $14 appears to be over the odds.

Taramansour was specked in the betting and his last 100M was good when resuming, he can surprise at $41.

Backing #11 One Long Day (1.5 win units) #15 Too Darn Discreet (1 win unit).

R9- Capricorn Star appeals as a good value bet in the last, she loves wet tracks, goes well fresh, draws nicely, and Jamie Mott has an outstanding record on her. The $26 looks luxurious.

Jazz Affair is racing well without winning and deserves a change of luck, she is very well weighted after Houston’s claim, she must be respected.

Stylish is an honest mare who gets Shinn on, she will be in the finish somewhere.

Last start Waller winner Eagle Express is drawn perfectly and must go in the numbers. Whilst she is up in class, she looks an improving type.

We’re excited to share more racing tips that tap into form, track bias and spring vibes—just good‑old‑fashioned insight.

Backing #5 Capricorn Star (0.5 win units, 1.5 place units)

R1-4,2,3,6 knockout hope @ big odds

R2-5 improver/value,1,7,6

R3-lottery – chances 1,3,4 chance @ odds,6,19

R4-9xxx best/day,3,5,2

R5-14xx,1,10 surprise?,9

R6-3x best value play,5,8,9

R7-11x, saving 7…2,4 flukers hope

R8-11x,15..1,2

R9-5x good value, 11,1,17

Best of luck to those playing.