Hawthorn v Collingwood Preview, MCG

Collingwood’s Premiership defence goes on the line this week in quite simply a must-win game at the MCG against the much-improved Hawthorn. The Magpies suffered a third straight defeat last Friday against Geelong and now sit four points outside the top eight with a tough run to the finish to come. Collingwood could regain both Mason Cox and Jeremy Howe this week, which would give a major boost to their injury-depleted side, but it will be without Lachie Schultz, who is in concussion protocols. Their record against the Hawks over the past 13 years hasn’t been pretty reading, winning only five of their last 19 meetings going back to the 2011 Preliminary Final. The Pies, however, won in the previous meeting earlier this season during the Gather Round. The Hawks will be looking to continue their charge towards finals this week and got back to winning ways with an impressive win over Fremantle in Launceston. They should be bolstered by Jack Ginnivan’s return to face his former side, which will certainly add extra spice to this weekend’s match at the home of footy. It will be fascinating to see whether Sam Mitchell calls upon Finn Maginness this week to tag Nick Daicos, a tactic he has deployed in the past.

TIP: Collingwood by 8 points, Jordan De Goey 25+ disposals

They say footy’s all about momentum – last time Hawthorn and Collingwood met, it was pure power from the Hawks. In Round 22, on August 7, 2025, Hawthorn dismantled Collingwood at the MCG by 64 points, racing out to a commanding 17.8 (110) to 6.10 (46) win before a roaring crowd of over 68,000. The Hawks’ four key forwards – Mabior Chol, Jack Gunston, Mitch Lewis, and Calsher Dear – bled scoreboard pressure, kicking nine goals between them, while ruck Lloyd Meek bagged three of his own in a career night.1

Collingwood’s camp was rocked early when stalwart Jeremy Howe collided heavily with Jai Newcombe and had to be stretchered off, rattling their structure almost immediately.2 It hardly needs stating that losing your defense’s backbone in the opening minutes can’t be ignored—it changed the rhythm entirely.

Earlier in the season Round 12 Collingwood struck back, knocking Hawthorn off by 51 points at the same ground. It showed just how dynamic the rivalry can be; form swings like that are what keep fans talking.3

With both teams shining (and slipping) in recent weeks, here’s how the lens of AFL Betting Tips approaches this rivalry:

• AFL Tips wise heads would note Hawthorn arriving with real scoring power, especially through their tall targets and depth up forward.
• Collingwood’s injury troubles and defensive jitters around that Howe incident suggest a softer edge in pressure games.
• On the flip side, their earlier big win over the Hawks demonstrates they can still deliver when things click.

So, the AFL Prediction angle I’d float without claiming certainty is that if Collingwood can shore up their defence and handle the physicality early, they could push the margin back in their favour. But if Hawthorn bring that same intensity they showed in Round 22, they’re primed for another statement win.

Really, for casual fans or those after AFL Betting Tips, the takeaway is simple: watch how Collingwood respond without Howe. If their structure and fight return, look for value in Collingwood keeping it tight. But if Hawthorn maintain their forward barrage and confidence – especially with match-ups like Chol and Gunston expect them to hold momentum and continue their push.

As always, footy’s thrilling because it’s anything but predictable. That’s what makes AFL Betting Tips fun – navigating the swing, the storylines, and the personalities behind the numbers.