Geelong vs Essendon, MCG

Geelong has bullied Essendon in recent times so this is a golden opportunity for the
Bombers to get one back and solidify their top-four prospects. Tom Hawkins is out for at
least six weeks after suffering a potentially career-ending foot injury. The Cats were
embarrassed by Carlton last Friday night to continue a damning run of form – six defeats
from their last seven games. Essendon doesn’t have the best midfield in the AFL on paper
but it’s doing a lot right and Geelong’s on-ball bridge is struggling badly.

After a tight mid-season run, Geelong’s inconsistency has left punters scratching their heads. Once solid at the MCG, the Cats have dropped key games, including that close loss to Fremantle which exposed gaps in their defensive structure. On the other side, Essendon has shown flashes of control, particularly in their strong performance against Adelaide, where their midfield pressure was key in shutting down forward momentum.

When looking at AFL Betting Tips for this matchup, recent form matters. Geelong’s forward line still holds danger, especially with Hawkins and Cameron, but their delivery inside 50 has been shaky. Essendon, while not perfect, is getting more out of their younger core, with players like Durham and Hobbs standing up in pressure moments.

Historically, Geelong has dominated this matchup, but 2025 has thrown up its share of surprises. The Bombers’ fitness and run late in games could be the difference if it stays tight.

Before locking in any wagers, it’s worth checking late team changes and tracking injuries both sides have had a few last-minute outs this season that shifted outcomes. For anyone making an AFL prediction, this clash promises more than just ladder points it’s a test of momentum.

TIP: Essendon by 19 points, Zach Merrett for 25 or more possessions