Flemington Racing Tips 5/07/2025

R7-16 best of the day

R8-10

R9-9 best value play

R1- The day kicks off with a couple of 2yo races where exposed form is extremely limited. It is difficult to line horses up when the unknowns and variables are significant.

There are 2 clear standouts from those to have raced: Bacash a last start winner from Team Hayes, and the debut winning Job Done from the Price/Kent yard. My leaning is towards Job Done.

The unraced Street Artist is beautifully bred and looked promising when jumping out at Sandown recently.

No Bet

R2- Similarly to R1, the unknowns are plentiful, perhaps even more so here with young horses getting out in distance to 1600M and on a wet deck.

The Busuttin/Young trained Arcora is the one who interests me most. This son of boom global stallion Justify was very good when chasing its opponent Buccleuch when resuming. He really attacked the line that day and the extra trip should suit ideally.

These two and the Cummings trained Bayou Music look the only chances.

No Bet

R3- A small field and an extremely tricky race presents here.

I’ve settled on Joyful Fortune; this fella flies first up, has won his only start on a heavy track, and loves Flemington. Earlier in his career he contested an Everest, a feat none of his rivals here would have ever dreamed of. The Hayes boys would have him ready to fire and at $6.50 he is worth a ticket, even with his advancing age.

The Tassie visitor Thespian Waters ran a creditable race behind Marble Nine down the straight at his first start on the mainland, he will be improved by that experience and could upset his more fancied rivals.

Marble Nine is racing in great heart winning his past 2 starts and will be hard to beat again.

Pereille is hard fit now, runs his best races 4^th up, he also reacts well on affected surfaces.

Backing #1 Joyful Fortune (1 win unit)

R4- The Freedman trained Everain appeals as a bet in this race. His two wins this time in have both had good merit, one of them on a heavy track at Mornington. Jye McNeil sticks with him after his last start victory and the step out to 1600M looks to be in his favour from a suitable barrier.

Kalkallo will get a nice run from the plum draw and be hard to toss, he is ultra consistent and was stiff not to win at this track last start.

Knobelas is a progressive filly taking all before her recently, she will make her own luck in front and look to dictate the race, she does get some weight relief on the boys although this is by far her hardest task to date.

Darkbonee finished the race off nicely last start showing that the trip and conditions should pose little worry, he’s a chance at double figure odds.

Backing #3 Everain (1 win unit)

R5- The 2600M races are always difficult to assess given that they can take turns in winning each week, especially when the class is a little indifferent.

I’ve settled on Samuel Langhorne as the improver, he is 4^th up after some good fitness efforts. He has previously won at the track on a soft track, draws nicely to conserve energy and Mick Kent has targeted this race for him. At around the $9 mark I think he is a nice value play.

Virtuous Circle showed from his latest run that he is getting back to some decent form; he was close in the same race many of his opponents contested last start and continued improvement has him in the finish here.

Bold Soul has struck form and the Payne’s have a good record of keeping horses at their peak for prolonged periods, he will again be tough to beat.

Captain Electric indicated last start that he is ready for this trip, and he won’t be far away at the end of the race.

Backing #9 Samuel Langhorne (1 win unit)

R6- This event has some very nice emerging fillies, and the market has sorted them out well.

The favourite She’s An Artist went like a jet last start when she blew away her main rival Fieldelo. On that day the market was reversed to what it is in this race, I will just be watching on with interest as there is little value to be had. Both are exciting horses and should be contenders in better Spring races.

Soft Love and Duchess Zou both look above average and should also be followed.

No Bet

R7- My best bet of the day presents here with the Sydney filly Bearings. This daughter of Tarzino has shown nice staying promise in her short career, the stable has been working towards getting her out in trip for some time. At her most recent run she settled back in the field and was finishing as well as any over the last 300M after experiencing a chequered run. The additional 500M suits perfectly as does the wet track given both her wins have been on slow/heavy surfaces. John Sargent has a fabulous record with staying fillies also.

Prochester has had 4 runs since coming from NZ and his breeding suggests the trip will be to his liking. He is drawn to get a cushy run and if he repeats his effort 2 starts back then he is a live chance.

Shockletz has been good to us this prep and I like her as a horse, my slight query is the 2500M, she didn’t attack the line late last start which was a little concerning. She must carry plenty of pudding here against a decent field of emerging stayers.

Vellasmachine might be the new player on the block, his 3 career starts have suggested this trip will suits its racing pattern. The stable, whilst underrated, have been going good lately too.

One Brother looks like a dour staying type and is better than a $71 chance, throw it in your exotics.

Backing #16 Bearings (2.5 win units)

R8- The Winter Championship Final and Oh Too Good might just be that. This lightly raced mare never runs a bad race. Her win over this track and trip last start showed she can do it at both ends of the race, it also showed us that she can handle a strong mile on an affected surface. She is a deserved favourite and will be very hard to beat.

Jimmy The Bear got back into the winners stall a fortnight ago after an indifferent run before that where Oh Too Good spanked him. He has been excellent this prep, loves track, distance, and wet tracks, he is the rightful danger.

Yellow Sam is flying lately, winning 3 on the trot, she must go in as one of the leading chances.

If there is a knockout, then I suggest it might be Forgot You. A winner of over $800K and trying to get back to his best after an injury plagued last 18 months. He is no $51 hope.

Backing #10 Oh So Good (2 win units)

R9- We close out the day with an open event, I have settled on the resuming Miss Tarzy. This mare should sit just off the speed and be strong late given she is more of a 2000M horse. She has performed well when resuming previously and reacts positively on wet tracks. The current price of $26 is extremely attractive to my eye.

Stylish is racing well recently , she is the testing material. The trip, track and wet tracks are positives, although the $2.90 is getting a tad skinny.

Fires Of Etna and Running By are other chances although the latter is better suited on top of the ground.

Backing #9 Miss Tarzy (1 win unit, 1.5 place units).

R1-limited exposed form, I like 4, perhaps 7?? unraced

R2-limited exposed form, perhaps 3

R3-1x,6,2,3

R4-3x,1,9,10

R5-9 value,3,4,10

R6-lovely fillies, no value race, 5x,8….4,9 

R7-16xxx best of the day,7,2,9,14

R8-10xx,3,9,8 knockout

R9-9x great value play,5,2,1

Best of luck if you’re having a try.