Essendon v Sydney Preview, Marvel Stadium

Essendon’s season hangs by a thread heading into the penultimate round as they take on league leaders Sydney on Friday night at Marvel Stadium. The Bombers’ wastefulness in front of goal came back to bite them last weekend against Gold Coast after the Suns went from the clouds to record their first win as the away team this season, courtesy of a Mac Andrew goal after the siren. It left Brad Scott’s side in 10th and two points outside the top eight instead of sitting in seventh heading into this weekend’s contest, where they essentially have to win to ensure their finals hopes remain alive heading into the final round. Scott will be forced into at least one change with Nik Cox ruled out with a concussion, which may pave the way for Dyson Heppell to play one final game in front of his home fans after he announced his retirement. Their opponents, Sydney, turned around their stuttering run of form with a comeback win over Collingwood at the SCG. Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Luke Parker were instrumental in turning around their final quarter deficit as the Swans retained their position atop the ladder this weekend. They are set to regain Lewis Melican this weekend, freeing Logan McDonald to return to attack this week. This matchup has a history of being tightly fought and entertaining contests, and the meeting this year was no exception as the Swans kicked away late to come away with a 30-point win at home.

TIP: Sydney by 11 points, Isaac Heeney to have 25+ disposals

It’s the Tigers of the AFL world well, not really Tigers, but rather Essendon versus Sydney clashing at Marvel Stadium, and footy fans can’t help but feel that familiar spark of curiosity. Both teams find themselves off the pace this season, eager to rediscover their rhythm, making this showdown ripe for genuine AFL Betting Tips insight.

Essendon has shown flashes: they scraped home against North Melbourne in a scrappy 65-62 thriller and have nabbed four wins from their last five but largely against teams also outside the eight. It’s a win-anywhere feel for them, but it’s hard to be confident when the opponent is still Sydney.

On the flip side, Sydney’s form has been more uneven. A solid win over GWS suggested they were building momentum, yet other performances have been shaky. Still, their defensive inconsistencies and Essendon’s scoring stoppages hint at a potentially high-scoring match AFL prediction models and commentary are leaning toward total points going over the usual line.

If you’re hunting for AFL Betting Tips, here’s the human take: consider the points total rather than just picking a winner. The Swans might be favoured, but Essendon’s scrappy edge and both sides’ scoring vulnerabilities suggest a tight, high-scoring contest. Models have split them almost evenly, offering value if you’re bold enough to back the underdog at home, or lean into AFL Tips that highlight the over-points market.

In short: this isn’t about wild predictions—it’s about watching a contest between two inconsistent but hungry sides, and recognising that the rather blunt lines currently suggest there could be more points than some expect. Let the play speak and your eyes guide your AFL betting tips.