Brisbane Lions v Geelong Preview, Gabba

The Lions were on the ropes at 0-3, but have gone about rescuing their season in the last fortnight. Apart from the last 10 minutes, Brisbane couldn’t have been more impressive in dominating Melbourne to win their first home-and-away match at the MCG since 2014. The Lions’ forward connection is back. After unexpectedly dropping their first two matches at the Gabba this season, Brisbane wouldn’t want to go 0-3 at their fortress. Geelong are undefeated in a typically stoic response from missing finals last year. But this will be by far their biggest test of the season, with only one of their five wins coming against a finalist from last year. The return of captain Patrick Dangerfield and veteran forward Tom Hawkins will bolster the Cats.

TIP: Lions by 19, Joe Daniher to kick multiple goals

You can’t ignore momentum when thinking about AFL Betting Tips, and Brisbane enter this clash with serious swagger. They’ve ridden a strong run in recent matches especially at the Gabba—where their home form has looked formidable. Meanwhile, Geelong aren’t without fight. Their 2025 season has shown flashes of brilliance, but inconsistency, injuries and aging pressures have crept into their campaign. Coming off a heavy Grand Final loss, the Cats will be eager to bounce back, yet they’ll face a Lion side that feels bulletproof under pressure. Using those factors in our AFL Prediction thinking, Brisbane look better placed to control the tempo across midfield and lock down Geelong’s key forwards. In short, an AFL Tip leaning toward the Lions feels a logical call—without getting cute with wild edges. This match could well reinforce Brisbane’s dominance, especially in front of their own crowd.