AFL TIPS: Hawthorn v Collingwood

Thursday, August 7 – 7:30 PM AEST – Venue: MCG

Both of these sides had disappointing losses last week. Collingwood losing to the Lions on their home deck with a top 2 spot to play for was surprising and Hawthorn losing by 14 points to Adelaide in Adelaide was more predictable.  

Both sides need to keep winning and in the case of Hawthorn, if they lose this match and lose to the Lions at the Gabba in the final round they may miss playing finals in 2025. That would be a disappointing result for a team with excellent talent all over the ground. The Hawks have excellent talls and smalls up forward in Gunston, Lewis, Chol, Watson, Ginnivan, Moore and Dear and an excellent defence led by Sicily, Battle, Amon and Barrass and they don’t turn the ball over.

Will Day will be missed and Weddle is still out too, which means Newcombe will need to rediscover his best form to fill the void. The ruck battle will be interesting with Meek and Cameron both in good form. Sam Mitchell will have to make the difficult selection call on whether to keep playing four talls in the forward line and try and stretch the Pies defence or leave one of Chol, Dear, Lewis or Gunston out.

Collingwood will be looking to consolidate a top two spot or else they risk playing the first final interstate against Brisbane or Adelaide, rather than on the MCG. The Pies have been getting enough inside 50’s but need to convert them more readily into goals.

They should bring Frampton back in this week after a week in the VFL, and Howe may return from a groin injury, to strengthen the defence. Hill and De Goey add some scoring power and speed to the forward line. 

The Daicos brothers have been racking up possessions and will need to continue to do so if the Pies are to win.  

Should be a great contest. Can the Pies defence hold up?

Hawthorn by 7 points

Watching Hawthorn dismantle Collingwood by a whopping 64 points at the MCG not long ago still gives footy fans goosebumps – 17.8 (110) to 6.10 (46), a statement win that shook up the ladder and reshaped the late-season narrative. For anyone mulling over AFL Betting Tips or crafting their AFL Prediction, that kind of performance can’t be ignored.

Hawthorn’s tall forwards – Chol, Gunston, Lewis, and Dear tore Collingwood’s defence to shreds, piling on nine goals between them. Meanwhile, Collingwood looked off-balance from the very first bounce, especially after Jeremy Howe’s early clash injury really disrupted their shape. As Craig McRae later admitted, the Magpies lacked cohesion, fight and structure issues that now loom over their finals campaign.

If you’re looking for AFL Tips heading into the next round, that game tells you everything: Hawks are peaking at exactly the right time, while Collingwood needs to rediscover its mojo, fast. In terms of AFL Betting Tips, I’d say the momentum is strongly favouring a Hawthorn resurgence if form and confidence count for anything, the Hawks have both in spades.