AFL TIPS: Geelong v Hawthorn

Friday, September 19 – 7.40 PM AEST – Venue: MCG

The rivalry between Geelong and Hawthorn has developed over the past 18 years in particular. Exciting finals games and Grand Finals to savour, as well as the blockbuster on Easter Monday, will mean that we should get an epic prelim final! Who will ever forget the Cats kicking themselves out of the 2008 Grand Final, Stuart Dew putting on a third quarter master class, and Sam Mitchell holding the premiership cup aloft in his first year as Captain, following a 26 point win with the Hawks kicking 18.7 to the Cats 11.23! Let’s hope both sides kick straight and put on a real show for the fans!

The Hawks put the Crows to the sword last week with Jack Gunston 5 goals finishing off the excellent midfield work of Jai Newcombe who had 5 centre bounce clearances in the first quarter and 8 for the match. The Cats are expected to send Oisin Mullin to tag Newcombe this week to minimise his impact. Connor O’Sullivan may be asked to do a similar role on Josh Weddle, who is back in great form after injury.

The Cats have had a week off and whilst Rhys Stanley is back training and could push for selection, the form of Mark Blicavs in the ruck against the Lions, 20 disposals, 26 hitouts, 6 clearances and a goal will likely mean that Chris Scott sticks with his current midfield mix and use the same 23 players that defeated the Lions in week 1 of the finals.  

The Hawks have two excellent taggers, and we expect Connor Macdonald will go to Bailey Smith and Conor Nash to go to Max Holmes to quell the Cats best ball getters and users. This will give the Hawks tall defenders in Sicily, Barrass and Battle a really good opportunity to get on top of the Cats tall forwards being Jeremy Cameron, Shannon Neale and Shaun Mannagh. Jack Scrimshaw will probably play on Patrick Dangerfield when he is up forward, and Jarman Impey and last week’s match winner Blake Hardwick will have to blanket Tyson Stengle and Brad Close as well as Jack Martin when he is in the forward line. The Cats attack looks formidable, but the Hawks defence has stood up well all year.  

The Hawks have excellent talls and smalls up forward in Gunston, Chol, Watson, Ginnivan, Moore and Mitch Lewis, who was subbed out again last week and is due to have a big one. He’ll keep his place as Calsher Dear will miss again with a low grade hamstring injury. They won’t get it all their own way though as Tom Stewart, Jack Henry, Mark O’Connor and Zach Guthrie will be solid as usual and provide plenty of rebound to give the Cats forwards enough opportunities to score.  

The ruck battle will be interesting with Meek and Blicavs in good form. Whichever of them can dominate around the ground and kick a goal or two might be the difference.

This should be a great game, but I fancy the Hawks in an upset.    

Hawks by 7 points