AFL Tips: Fremantle v Carlton

Sunday, August 3 – 5.10 PM AEST – Venue: Optus Stadium

Fremantle is in the hunt for a top four finish, to secure the all-important double chance in the finals. Freo has the class all over the ground and will be far too good for the Blues, who have been very disappointing this year. The Blues are playing without any confidence which only feeds their inability to hit targets when they try to move the ball forward. They turn the ball over too often for a team that played in a preliminary final in 2023. They have had a horrible run with injuries to key players including Sam Walsh, Brodie Kemp, Mitch McGovern, Nic Newman, Jack Silvagni, Orazio Fantasia, Matt Cottrell and prized pick 3 in last year’s draft Jagga Smith, but it shows the lack of depth they have, with the bottom six to eight players not deserving their spot in the side and probably not on the list in 2026.

The Blues should bring Jaxon Binns and Jordan Boyd in for the rest of the season to see if they deserve contracts in 2026 and bring Flynn Young back in when he is over his foot injury.

Freo is getting close to having its best team available for selection as its captain Alex Pearce pushes for a return from a shin injury. Pearce would play just his second game since round 11 if he is right to return after a short lived comeback against Sydney in Round 17. Corey Wagner is likely to come straight back in after missing last week with a minor heel injury. Nat Fyfe is ready to play and may get a role as the substitute this week.

Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw will get plenty of the ball and the dual rucks in Jackson and Darcy are working well, with Jackson playing as an on-baller late in games. Treacy, Voss, Amiss, Frederick and Switkowski will get plenty of opportunity to dominate this match. Hayden Young was back to his best last week after returning from a hamstring injury the week before, wining the Glendinning-Allan Medal as best afield in the spiteful Western Derby. Neil Erasmus should get to play a full game this week after being the sub against the Eagles.

Sunday’s Round 21 showdown between Fremantle and Carlton at Optus Stadium kicks off at 5:10 pm AEST on 3 August 2025. Fremantle enters off a strong run, winning four of their last five games including a dominant 126‑77 rout of West Coast and tight wins over Collingwood and Hawthorn. Carlton, conversely, has lost four of five and struggled to generate consistency, their most recent victory coming against Melbourne, surrounded by heavy losses to Hawthorn, Brisbane, Collingwood and Port Adelaide

AFL Betting Tips & AFL Tips Insight

Analysts using data-driven models such as those based on 10,000 simulations are leaning toward Fremantle given current form and home advantage. Fremantle’s midfield and inside‑50 dominance adds weight to AFL Betting Tips predicting them as likely winners.

AFL Prediction Notes

Prediction metrics highlight Fremantle’s momentum and efficiency, while Carlton faces pressure to turn things around quickly. Carlton’s squad depth and recent poor scoring output suggest another challenging outing.

Final Thoughts

For AFL Tips or AFL Prediction content aiming to shape tipping advice, Fremantle appears in much better shape. Carlton must overcome form and fixture bias to challenge the data currently favours the home side.

Fremantle by 37 points