AFL TIPS: Collingwood v Brisbane

Saturday, September 20 – 5.15 PM AEST – Venue: MCG

The Lions remain king of the Sunshine State after dominating the Suns in a 53 point win in what was billed as the ‘biggest game in Queensland history’ by Damian Hardwick in the lead up. It’s a shame his side was never in it – was it their poor form or have the Lions bounced back to be real premiership threat? All will be revealed on Saturday evening against the Pies.

Collingwood and Brisbane have played in many epic finals over the past 30 years, so let’s hope this game lives up to that high mark, with both sides bringing high pressure, excellent skills and lots of goals.

The Lions had winners all over the field, but it all started in the midfield with Josh Dunkley blanketing Matt Rowell with 20 disposals and 18 tackles, Will Ashcroft stepped up to cover Lachie Neale who is out with a hamstring injury again this week and had 28 disposals, two goals, Hugh McCluggage, 33 disposals and Cam Rayner 16 disposals and a goal.

After stunning the Crows by 4 goals in week one of the finals, the Pies mids have had a week off to plan and get rid of any niggles. Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Jordan De Goey, Nick Daicos, Ned Long, Jack Crisp and Darcy Cameron understand what they need to do to keep on top of the Lions mids to provide enough opportunity for their forwards and to kick goals themselves, with six of the eleven goals kicked against the Crows coming from the midfield.

The Pies will stick with Mason Cox after dropping Dan McStay who had been very disappointing for 6-7 weeks. Cox will again play deep forward and second ruck, and he has played some big games in finals including his best game for the club in the 2018 Preliminary Final against the Tigers where he kicked 3 goals from 8 contested marks. If he doesn’t mark it, he’ll bring it to ground to give the small forwards in Jamie Elliott, Lachie Shultz, Beau McCreery and Pat Lipinski plenty of opportunity.

The defence was solid against the Crows with Darcy Moore dominating with 13 intercepts and 9 intercept marks mainly against Taylor Walker. Jeremy Howe will be welcomed back to the side this week after training well over the past two weeks following a groin injury. He adds real strength and reads the play well allowing Moore, Maynard, Quaynor, Perryman and Josh Daicos more freedom to rebound the footy quickly from defence. Roan Steele will make way for Howe.  

The Lions defence won’t make it easy for the Pies forwards who have struggled over the past 2 months to kick winning scores. Harris Andrews, Darcy Gardiner, Brandon Starcevich, Ryan Lester, Darcy Wilmot and Dane Zorko have been rock solid. Combining that with their audacious ball use through the corridor when transitioning from defensive 50 and their relentless ability to score from turnover, means the Pies forwards need to work hard to get repeat forward 50 opportunities.

Lachie Schultz, Pat Lipinski, Beau McCreery and Jamie Elliott, 4 goals against the Crows will need to use their speed when they don’t have the ball to keep the pressure on the Lions defenders.

To win, the Lions need to hold their own in the midfield and get at least 10 goals out of livewire forward Kai Lohmann, Charlie Cameron, Callum Ah Chee and Cam Rayner.

What a game this should be! I think the Pies will be able to execute Craig McCrae’s game plan to beat the Lions in a close one, if they kick straight!     

Magpies by 11 points