AFL Tips: Adelaide v Hawthorn

Friday, August 1 – 7.40 PM AEST – Venue: Adelaide Oval

Check below for our betting breakdown of Adelaide v Hawthorn – featuring our best bet, player prop, and Same Game Multi, with all odds via BetBetBet.

Adelaide is playing for a top 2 spot, and the Hawks have too much to play for to lose this match. There are 4 sides on 52 points, and they will likely finish 4^th – 7^th the question is in which order. Percentage may be important too, as the Hawks have a one percent gap on the Giants, and if they don’t win enough games and the Dogs keep winning, they could find themselves outside the eight at the end of the season.  This is going to be a ripper!

Adelaide is so tough to beat at home and their tackling is outstanding with over 100 tackles last week against Port and most importantly only 2 missed tackles. They are No. 1 in the league for this pressure stat.

They have the tall timber up forward in Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker as well as Ben Keays, Fogarty and Isaac Rankine. The Hawks have three solid talls now that their skipper James Sicily played himself back into form against the Blues last week. Barrass, Battle and Sicily will make it an exciting aerial dual and Impy will clean up when the ball hits the ground.

The Adelaide forwards will be supplied by Alex Neal-Bullen, Jake Soligo, the skipper Dawson and the veteran Rory Laird, who keep racking up possessions.  The Crows will miss Max Michalanney – a crucial part of Adelaide’s backline – who was substituted out during the third quarter of Saturday night’s thumping win over Port Adelaide and will miss four to six weeks with a hamstring. It means the Crows will continue their push for a top two berth without the versatile defender, who will need to prove his fitness for the finals. Hugh Bond hasn’t played at AFL level this year but may be needed to tackle the Hawks’ small forwards.

 The Hawks have excellent talls and smalls up forward too in Gunston, Lewis, Watson, Ginnivan, Moore and Dear and they don’t turn the ball over. Will Day is back and will be better with a game under his belt. The ruck battle will be interesting too with Meek and O’Brien in good form too. Mabior Chol is available after missing two weeks with a groin injury, so Sam Mitchell will have to make the difficult selection call on either playing four talls in the forward line of leaving one of Chol, Dear, Lewis or Gunston out.

If Adelaide can get the crowd involved early, they should win. 

With Adelaide and Hawthorn both showing flashes of improvement throughout the 2025 AFL season, this matchup is shaping up to be a hard-fought contest. The Crows have proven difficult to beat at home, with their younger midfield brigade finding more consistency as the season progresses. Meanwhile, the Hawks have managed a couple of surprise wins in recent rounds, showing they can capitalise on turnovers and punish sides on the rebound.

For those looking into AFL betting tips, recent form and injury lists play a big role. Adelaide’s ability to control possession and set up scoring opportunities through the corridor has been a highlight, especially when players like Jordan Dawson are in form. On the other hand, Hawthorn’s defensive pressure has created challenges for more fancied opponents, and their forward efficiency has shown signs of maturing.

In terms of AFL tips, keeping an eye on the contested ball count and inside 50 efficiency might offer insight into where the game will be won. With both teams still developing their identities, expect momentum swings throughout. For those following AFL prediction trends, this fixture could hinge on which team adapts better to in-game pressure and holds their structure late into the fourth quarter.

Adelaide by 22 points