Mick’s Mail: Moonee Valley 23/03/25

R1- We get things underway with a very competitive 2500m race with several leading chances.

After 2 runs in Australia, I think its time for Bur Dubai to find the winner’s stall. Both runs since arriving have had very nice merit; the first showed his ability albeit the race shape wasn’t suitable. Last start he struck the airborne Revelare and was just edged out, the step up in distance and improved fitness levels has him primed to win.

Dschingis Prestige looks the hardest to beat, he has a placing at the trip, is drawn perfectly to get a cushy run, and his first up run showed he has returned in very good order.

Steel Run is another chance, he is a winner at the distance, will be improved off his return run and Michael Kent is a very good trainer of staying horses. My query with him is the very tricky barrier but with luck he should be thereabouts.

Through Irish Eyes is $71 and that is a crazy price, he will run the trip, always goes0 0well at this stage of the preparation, and gets 2kgs off for Jett Stanley, he is worth a small ticket.

Backing #7 Bur Dubai

R2- A hard race to assess given the number of unraced horses and very little in the way of exposed form.

From those we have seen I like Prestige Forever. He refused to settle and did a fabulous job to finish as prominent as he did after over racing so severely. If he finds his manners, he will be hard to beat.

No Bet

R3- The resuming Poifect comes out on top here. This mare has an outstanding fresh record, goes great at the distance, gets good weight relief for Dakotah Keane and at $17 seems a fabulous each way bet.

Elouyou was a little plain first up but always improves after a run having run 2 seconds from 2 attempts. In the Spring he was beaten just over a length by Veloce Carro who would start favourite if it was in this race.

Top Calibre is racing well and deserves favouritism, I have it marked longer than the $3.10 currently on offer, he can still win although I don’t think he is value given the wide barrier and my map signalling that he may get posted off the track.

Scheelite is a horse I’ve always liked, if he turns up with his best form he could blow them away, the $19 seems way over the odds.

Backing #3 Poifect

R4- My best value play of the day appears here in the shape of Ambassadorial, this ex Waterhouse/Bott galloper is now in the care of Alex Rae, an excellent horseman, and the change of scenery will be beneficial. I particularly like him starting here first up at 1500M which signals he is ready to fire, Alex places his horses well and he wouldn’t be sending him out there if he wasn’t ready. He has won at the track and trip, Stackhouse is riding well , draws perfectly and the $13 seems luxurious.

Verdad finally saluted last start after several minor placings, now that he has found how to win there could be many more. He has raced at the highest levels in his career and finds a slightly easier challenge here, he draws well, gets the right rider and won’t be far away.

Hellsing has good ability and is ready to peak here, my slight concern is the wide barrier, but he is good enough to be a strong contender.

The Waller import Sun God is the query runner, he has decent form in the UK and any betting moves should be respected.

Backing #16 Ambassadorial

R5- Wineglass Bay is ready to improve significantly here, this fella has had 3 nice runs to get him cherry ripe and this looks a very suitable race for him. At his 4^th run in he has had 3 tries for 2 victories, he is drawn nicely to sit midfield and round them up coming around the corner. He was very close up behind some handy horses in the Spring and a repeat will have him go very close here, the $12 seems very appealing.

Golden Crusader will derive plenty of benefit from his resuming run, he gets in under the limit after the claim and will appreciate the step up to this trip.

Ziryab is racing very well and will be the testing material, recent efforts support him looking for the 2000M and he gets that here.

My Brothers Keeper is an honest horse who rarely runs a bad race, he should be somewhere in the finish.

Backing #8 Wineglass Bay

R6- Shanwah is going for 4 on the trot and I can’t see any reason why he won’t be successful. His recent efforts have demonstrated that he has above average ability, overcoming difficulties to still get the job done. He draws ideally here; Ethan Brown is in great form and the natural progression to 2000M seems perfect.

Statuario’s recent efforts should be put aside when assessing his chances, he is a very nice horse who hasn’t had any luck of late. His run first up this time in had plenty of merit and this very clever team have targeted this race, I am saving on him to have a winning result.

Opening Address is ready for the rise in distance and will be prominent, as will Imperialist who draws well and is now rock hard fit. A good race with some very nice 2^nd tier 3yo’s ready to take the next step.

Backing #2 Shanway and #6 Statuario

R7- A very even race with many of the chances very close to each other in ratings.

I have Sneaky Sunrise slightly on top, her recent efforts after a break show that she is ready to fire now, the distance and map suit and I see her being very hard to beat.

Gala Queen is racing in career best form this campaign, she is drawn perfectly, and Bowditch will give her every chance.

Too Darn Lizzie is another who has benefitted from a couple of runs after a break, she is a classy horse and will run well again, the 9 barrier is a slight concern although she is good enough to overcome it.

Cilacap is another strong contender in a very even race. She has won 3 of 5 and is drawn ideally. The Childs/Begg combo is flying at present too.

Given the closeness of the chances and the tightness of the market I can’t clearly commit to a bet here, I think one of the above 4 will win.

No Bet

R8- Similarly to race 7, this is a tricky event with many chances.

Lady Jones appeals given its price in relation to its dangers. She is a more than capable mare who flies 2^nd up and was good on resumption which is a good indicator that she has spelled well. Her form at the track and distance is very good and she has an excellent affinity with Jye McNeil, at $9.50 she is a bet every day.

Molly Bloom is her obvious threat, on her day she is just below top class and this standard suits her, my only concern is her poor third up record.

Quintessa is a high-class mare, and her last run showed she is nearing her best again, out of an excellent yard and Stackhouse will steer her well.

Grinzinger Belle gets plenty of ticks also, Loves the Valley, goes well 2^nd up and has never missed a place at the track/trip, she can’t be left out.

Backing #3 Lady Jones

R9- Another even lot here with almost all runners having claims at winning, the first couple of hundred metres will play a big part in deciding the result.

The quality mare Benedetta gets my nod, she should be able to take up a position one off the fence and 3 pairs back. She has an explosive turn of foot when conditions suit and I’m hoping her maiden trip to the track will suit her racing pattern. She had no luck when buried last start and will have energy stores as a result.

Jimmysstar went like a jet in the Oakleigh Plate and can do similar here, he races best when his runs are spaced, and the Maher camp will have him primed again here. The slight negative is barrier 2, he doesn’t want to be buried too far back on the rails.

Schwarz was found wanting in a hot race last start and the return to his favourable trip of 1200M will assist. He has had a nice freshen up for this and may get some easy sectionals and prove hard to run down.

The bonny mare She’s Bulletproof is so honest she can never be discounted, she loves the track/distance and will be there somewhere in the finish when they say stop.

Backing #5 Benedetta

R10- Amelita has had little go in its favour in its 2 runs from a spell and I expect it to improve dramatically here. Waller has a good knack of travelling horses in search of better luck and I think he has delivered the right strategy with this filly. She is drawn softly, can reel off quick sectionals, and with any luck will be hard to beat.

On Display could be the knockout hope, she has been tested in good company previously and hasn’t disgraced herself, a sign that the stable has a fair opinion of her. They produced her at Ballarat recently where she ground out a confidence building win, with that behind her she can progress further again.

Mckelya finished well to win at Sandown recently, the race shape here sets up nicely for her here and the step up to 1200M will assist also.

Scillato is 3 from 3 in her career thus far and will again run an honest race.

Backing #3 Amelita and #16 On Display

R11- The lucky last on a big day and Extratwo is my best bet on the card. She loves the track and the 1200M, Ethan Brown has won on her previously and she is also a 3^rd up winner. Last preparation she was within 5L on Group 1 horses and the dropping back to benchmark company will suit her perfectly. The $7 is good overs also, lets hope we are finishing with plenty of the bookie’s cash in our pockets.

My Temptation is going great guns for the Enver Jusufovic stable, winning its first 4 career starts. He faces his toughest test to date and can win again although the $3 seems a tad skinny to me.

Moby Dick resumes here for Price/Kent and has above average ability evidenced by getting within 3L of Rey Magnerio two runs back. A repeat of that effort will have him around the money against this lot.

Major Share has been concentrating on the shorter course events and moves out in trip here, he was a winner at his only 1200M try and must be considered.

Backing #6 Extratwo

R1-7

R11-6 Best of the day

R3-3

R4-16 best value play

R1-7xx,10,6..4 not hopeless, worth a speck 

R2-too many unraced, 2 if settles

R3-3x gv,6,13,11

R4-16xx gv,1,6,13???

R5-8x,3,7,10

R6-2x, saving 6,3,4

R7-4,3,1,2

R8-3,4,1,5

R9-5x,1,4,7

R10-3,16 knockout,11,8

R11-6xxx Best/Day,10,12,8

Best of luck If you’re playing.