Mick’s Mail: Moonee Valley 10/8/24

R1- Proceedings open with a tricky little affair with the betting appearing to be very close to what I’m thinking.

I have Electric Impulse on top, this mare has looked like she is wanting the 1600M trip. The booking of Jaylah Kennedy and the 2kg claim is a plus as she should give it a perfect run off the speed and from favourable draw will be very strong late.

Waimarie is the obvious danger, she has returned in great fashion, mapped to sit on pace and Zahra will steer her well.

Roadie is in a purple patch of form and although up slightly in class she can be prominent, as can Lievore who Roadie beat last start, she is ready to win, the slight query with her is the draw.

Backing #1 Electric Impulse

R2- Blue Stratum arrives here 2^nd up after a solid win when resuming, now this son of Blue Point has a prep under his belt I can see him furnishing into a very nice horse. He is drawn perfectly to sit just off them and be produced at the corner to ping at them and finish over the top. At the $8.50 currently on offer I think he’s a fabulous value bet, I’ve got him marked half the price.

The beautifully bred filly Immortal Star is first up here, she boasts a win when fresh and a very good showing behind the classy Bold Bastille, a repeat of that has her in the finish.

Chances also to The Showvinist who is flying being the winner of its last 2 starts, and Diamond Firetail who is a very honest conveyance.

Backing #2 Blue Stratum

R3- Flamin’ Romans is my best bet on a very tough card. The Maher camp have been very patient with this lightly raced gelding and his last start win at Geelong showed me that they are going to be rewarded as he steps out in trip. I have him mapped to be sitting just off midfield with John Allen winding him up from the 800M mark and finishing too well for them.

Dublin Journal is better than a $17 hope, he was safe in the market first up and looked to be having a fitness run, the quick rise in distance will suit him ideally and from barrier 4 should sit more prominently. Any market moves should be respected.

Lincoln Rocks is racing very well, will go right back from the gate and look to storm late, with My Rocca Fella getting in with a handy weight, is racing consistently and can fill a place.

Backing #12 Flamin’ Romans

R4- A super hard race with many winning hopes, I’ve settled on the Symon Wilde trained Dashing Duchess. This Tavistock mare is hard fit, the 2500M poses no problems with Zahra to give it a great steer from a plum draw.

She’s A Con, gets in with no weight after Ryan Houston’s claim and will pick them off from back in the field as the race progresses, she will run the trip right out.

Dschingis Prestige is drawn to race handy, another from the Wilde stable and gets Kah, he will be thereabouts.

Perfect Play is another drawn advantageously, he finds it hard to win but is always around the money.

Backing #7 Dashing Duchess

R5- Another open race although I think Mornington Glory is the class runner, Kah on, good barrier, and is unbeaten at 1000M. He likes the going hard n fast, so we don’t want to see it any worse than the 6 currently on offer.

Sebonack from Team Hawkes has a very unflattering record (18 starts, 2 wins) although the stable is flying and if the race is run to suit can surprise at double figure odds.

Moonhaven is another from a stable that is airborne, gets in with no weight and whilst up in grade has plenty in its favour to be strong late.

Acromantula over from WA has performed well at the track and has claims.

Backing #2 Mornington Glory

R6- Cavallo Rampante comes out on top for me here. This lightly raced mare gets a few things in its favour here, the most significant is the race shape and I expect to see her unleashing late to storm over them and at the $14 on offer is a fabulous bet. She is now primed after 2 runs back and gets the outstanding Micky Dee to steer and he is in career best form.

Big Me had big wraps when returning from Hong Kong, its first run back in Oz was full of merit and natural improvement will see him go close here.

Port Albert had plenty of excuses last start and has been freshened for this, he should be somewhere around the placegetters, as will Charmed Run who is racing well and is drawn to be prominent.

Backing #15 Cavallo Rampante

R7- The Busuttin/Young trained Alder will be winning better races than this. His first run here was excellent, his sectionals were better than that of a benchmark horse, he gets Dee on and is drawn perfectly. The $4.40 on offer seems generous to my eye.

Interpretation is a horse of very good ability although his recent efforts haven’t supported that, he has now had two fitness runs and might be a run short and in need of slightly longer trip, that said I won’t be surprised if he runs a big race at odds.

Duke De Sessa continues to let me down albeit he is classy, is drawn soft and gets in well after Gaudray’s claim.

Mathew has won 5 of 11, gets the Patrick Payne polish, has no weight on his back and should be around the money.

Backing #10 Alder

R8- I like Aspen Colorado at odds here. He has been freshened for this, is drawn to sit off them and come late, he also goes well at Moonee Valley. I love the booking of Jamie Mott and at $16 he is an each way bet to nothing.

Regal Pom has had two nice runs back and is perfectly suited out to the 1600M here, a distance that he performs best at.

Another Regal, as in Regal Zeus, won well last start and is drawn to bounce on the lead and prove hard to run down.

Maximillian Caesar was specked in a tougher race at its first start here against far superior opposition and I can see him being a chance from a good barrier.

Backing #16 Aspen Colorado and #2 Regal Pom

R9- Show Some Decorum flies first up, loves the track and the distance, and I can’t understand why he is $15 currently (I have him marked $6). He maps to sit off them around midfield and swoop late.

Extratwo is a winner (5 victories from 13 starts),loves the track and trip and will be in the finish somewhere.

Home Rule is drawn to take up a positive position, he is another who loves the track and trip, and John Allen also has a wonderful connection with the gelding.

Zou Sensation is drawn poorly for its racing pattern but if he gets luck early in the race he can surprise at $20, he goes good 2^nd up and loves MV and the distance.

Backing #4 Show Some Decorum

R1- 1x,5,3,6

R2- 2x good value,6,3,7

R3- 12xxx best of the day,4 improver,5,17

R4- 7,15,8,6

R5- 2x,6,7,1

R6- 15x great value,12,1,10

R7- 10xx,4 improver,1,11

R8- 16 & 2 both good value chances,4,1

R9- 4x excellent value,7,6,12

R3-12 best of the day

R7-10

R2-2

R6-15

R9-4

Top Pick (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 10

Return – 16.9

ROI  +69%

Bets – 32

Return – 29.9

ROI  -6.56%

Best of luck if you’re playing.