Mick’s Mail: Geelong 4/1/2025

R1- The day kicks off with Actaeon looking perfectly suited for the 2400M trip, he has drawn nicely to sit just off a good speed, set by his stablemate. Although he has never been to the distance I can’t see any reason why he wont relish it.

I will be saving on Wealdstone though, this fella enjoyed the step out in trip last start and a repeat will have him go close here, he is rock hard fit now and has also drawn perfectly.

Goldenstatewarrior has decent ability and can figure, as can Born With Kings, who is ready to produce after a nice run last start following a freshen up.

Backing #1 Actaeon and #13 Wealdstone

R2- A tricky race here and I will be betting down.

Maisy came out on top; I think this mare will appreciate the 1700M 2^nd up and on a good surface. They will ride her cold just off midfield and wind up from the corner.

Alabama Girl was a nice winner when getting out to the mile last start, I see her tracking up behind Maisy in the run and unleashing down the middle of the track. A couple of small bets on these two horses.

Track Patcher from the Hayes camp is lightly raced and goes well, he is drawn favourably to get a cushy run and will be around the money.

Samurai is in form and will give a sight.

Backing #9 Maisy and #11 Alabama Girl

R3- I do like Willmott at good odds here. He put together 3 nice wins on end before failing in a good quality race over Cup week. He has had a nice freshen up that he obviously enjoyed going off his recent trial effort.

Writey O’pal from the astute Michael Huglin yard is the danger, he goes well 2^nd up, loves the distance, and the young girls claim will assist greatly.

The ever-consistent Capricorn Start will be thereabouts as should Hola Amigos who performs well fresh.

Backing #3 Willmott

R4- A race of mainly unraced horses and I’ll take the opportunity of looking for future winners.

Keen to watch #6 Yolo and #10 Cosmic Shower.

No Bet

R5- An extremely open race here.

Luna Cat came out on top; she isn’t a world beater but has been good enough to finish in the placings 15 times from 27 attempts including 5 victories. If she gets the right run she should be in the finish somewhere.

Stablemate Bellinger is racing well this prep and can continue his winning way here, Jaylah Kennedy’s claim is a massive boost to his hopes.

Don’t Hope Do has good ability and is the justified favourite, the outside barrier is a massive worry for me, if he gets a good amount of luck in the run then he’s the testing material.

Big Watch is a big watch, he has a very good run in him and if that turns up here then he could be the blowout at huge odds.

No Bet…. (may have a speck on #6 Big Watch if there’s market support)

R6- Keen to bet into this race as I think there are 2 good hopes at nice odds.

Lethal Thoughts resumes and has won 2 from 3 when first up previously. If young Saffie Osborne can get him some cover early then I think he can finish strongly to win.

Le Ferrari is another I will be backing. Going back 5 runs, this gelding beat Rheinberg over this trip, that horse would be hard in the market if it were in this race. Jaylah Kennedy’s claim helps, he loves the distance and has a handy 2^nd up record. The $20 seems juicy to my eye.

Haraldus deserves its favouritism on the back of recent efforts, he is lightly raced and has taken all before him. The price is getting too skinny for my appetite, but he is a definite chance.

Robrick is a handy type and was nosed out by the smart Rey Magnerio, a repeat of that effort will take him a long way towards winning this.

Backing #7 Lethal Thoughts and #1 Le Ferrari

R7- I like the resuming Burlington Gate here, I’m hoping for a genuine speed so she can find her rhythm back in the field and unleash a powerful burst to score. Her jump out last month was sound, and I like the space until now, that tells me the Maroney’s have had a few weeks to get the polish right, early market support suggests similarly.

SA visitor Jazz Affair is racing in great fashion and must be considered. She can get back in her races and from barrier 1 will need a bit of luck, if the gaps appear then she is a huge hope as there’s a nice bit of acceleration in her game.

Cat Noir resumes, she can pull out a good run fresh, loves the track, and gets in very well after the claim of Jett Stanley who is riding very well.

Igotcha is another hope albeit a tad short in the market for my liking.

Backing #9 Burlington Gate

R8- On a day of limited ‘standouts’ my best on the card is Holymanz. Recent efforts in Sydney are better than they appear at first glance as he didn’t have things go his way, he returned to Caulfield last start and finished off very nicely late. The track, barrier, distance, and race shape are all positives for his profile.

Riot And Rose has been racing very well around the country cups circuit, his last effort should be overlooked as he pulled up lame. If he is at his best then he is the danger.

Mathletic and Matron Bullwinkle can both pull out good runs on their day and should be considered for the exotics.

Backing #1 Holymanz

R9- This race is a lottery with as many as 7 or 8 live hopes off my numbers.

With that being the case, I’m backing one my old faves in Vagrant. I know he hasn’t been at his best for over 12 months, but should the good Vagrant turn up then look out, I’ll take the $27 to find out.

She Dances is ready after 2 runs back, has very good ability and can figure at good odds.

Bizot should get the favours from the draw, is racing well and should be in the finish.

She’s Bulletproof is another who gets a sof draw and will be competitive.

Inhibitions, Bossy Nic and Cleo Cat all must go into the quaddy.

Backing #2 Vagrant

R10- Danxia returns here after his debut win and looks a horse of substance. He returns to the scene of the crime, gets a nice draw and a positive race shape. A good bet around the $7 mark, I suggest he starts shorter.

Sweethearted goes well, I like this horse and would have him clearly on top if not for the awful barrier, if he can get into the field with cover then they will know he’s in the race.

Manolo Bling and Miss Altair are good honest fillies who shouldn’t be underestimated.

Backing #15 Danxia and saving #4 Sweethearted

R8-1 best of the day

R3-3 best value play

R6-1&7

R7-9

R9-2

R1-backing 1x&13….2,4

R2-tricky, small play 9&11..8,2

R3-3xx gv,1,8,5

R4-watching 6&10 (no bet)

R5-open race, 4,1,10,6 improver?

R6-7x & 1 both value,10,2

R7-9v,4,11,1

R8-1xxx best/day…2,5,6

R9-many chances, 2v,1,13,8 (3,4,9 in Quaddy)

R10-backing 15&4…2,3

Best of luck if you’re playing.