Mick’s Mail: Caulfield 27/7/2024

R1- We kick off the day with a 1400m 2yo race with the field of 8 having limited race day experience.

I’ve got the ultra-impressive Dom on top; he showed above average ability at his debut winning by healthy margin.

I’m thinking Dom has slightly more upside and Shinn sticks after its impressive victory at Geelong.

Kalimna Views showed on its return from a spell that the step up in distance will suit and Jamie Mott is in great form.

I Am Velvet is unbeaten at its 2 starts and she needs to transfer her Pakenham form into the city, if she does then she will be a chance.

Backing #2 Dom 

R2- Another 2yo race with a shallow pool of form to go by. 

I really like Comanche Miss here; she resumes from her debut effort where she acquitted herself admirably against quality opposition. A recent 1000M jump out victory showed she has returned in good order. She is my best bet on the card.

Another back from a break, is the Moody/Coleman trained She Smashes. After a nice win at her 2nd start, they thought enough of her to send her to Sydney to tackle a harder race where her run had merit. She was specked that day signalling she was well thought of.

Her stablemate, the beautifully bred topweight Adolfito, won well on debut down the straight and the stable will be hoping he can translate that performance to circle racing.

Berezka will be winning plenty of races on her first effort, and natural improvement will see her prominent here.

Backing #10 Comanche Miss

R3- A race of limited chances here with the Mick Kent trained Bluestone my value bet on the program. This lightly raced son of Reliable Man relished the step up in distance at his 2nd start and he is perfectly suited at the 2400m.

Tietar from the Price/Kent yard is another one bred to get the staying trip. Her last run at Hawkesbury was a shade disappointing on face value given the market had her stamped unbeatable. She probably lacked a tough run prior, and she will be better schooled now for this trip.

Captain Electric is ready now after 2 solid runs back and the ex-Kiwi Phats should be thereabouts after its first run in Oz.

Backing #2 Bluestone

R4- The Devil In Her comes out in top for me here. Her last run over this trip at Sandown was full of merit and Patrick Payne will have her primed for victory. Jye McNeil has a good affinity with her, having a win and a 3rd from his three rides on her.

Kodiak Bear will run a big race at double figure odds, he will be primed for this trip by his astute mentor Symon Wilde and gets the talented Micky Dee to steer. He is one from one second up and being by Tosen Stardom ensures he will run the trip right out.

Fergo comes back slightly in distance from last weeks effort, is drawn perfectly and gets Shinn on board. The fact he is on a 7 day back up suggests he has done well from that outing.

Matron Bullwinkle will run her usual honest race albeit she finds it hard to win.

Backing #11 The Devil In Her & #9 Kodiak Bear

R5- This is a deep race with plenty of horses with nice ability, many are resuming so market moves will be vital.

Kundalini is on top; this lovely daughter of ‘Vinnie’ has changed stables to Graham Begg since its last preparation and I’m tipping she won’t be a maiden for too much longer. Her form lines around some very nice horses stand her in good stead for this.

Amoursirra is the danger, prior to her spell they stepped her out in stakes grade, she was well fancied that day and wasn’t beaten far by some top-class gallopers.

Sunset Dreaming is another who was tested in good company at the back end of her campaign when she might’ve had enough, earlier in her prep she was close behind some very smart types. Although she will be better suited at a slightly longer trip, I think the McEvoy’s will have her ready for this first up tilt.

Sledding will punch through to lead and give a bold sight, his win at Bendigo was full of merit.

Backing #6 Kundalini 

R6- A tough race here with multiple angles to assess, in addition to Ciaron Maher having 4 live chances.

I’ve landed on one of Maher’s in Wallenda, he will be better suited away from the straight track, maps to sit back off a good speed, Shinn to ride, and conditions are to suit.

The super honest Prinzerro will be hardest to beat, he never runs a bad race, is going to get a lovely cart into it from the draw, and the Stokes/Stackhouse combo is a very good one.

Bracarde broke its maiden last start, and whilst up several grades on its last run, it shows nice promise and can progress quickly.

Bossy Nic must go in, she gets in well with the claim on recent excellent efforts, a slight concern is she may be getting to the end of it this time in.

Backing #5 Wallenda

R7- Recommendation only needs a repeat of its last run to beat these comfortably.

His first up run showed what a classy horse he is and there doesn’t appear to be any impediments here.

Marble Nine won well recently and looks to be on an upward spiral, I’ve got him filling the quinella spot.

Mrs Chrissie is racing in career best form and will run her usual honest race.

Honey Girl is an interesting overseas mare, look to her to be warming up late.

Backing #2 Recommendation and a small play on the quinella #2 and #5

R8- The day has arrived for Duke De Sessa to stand up. We have seen glimpses of his promise and he won’t find a better opportunity than here to fulfill the faith the stable has in him.

The booking of Ryan Houston shows real intent to my mind, and his class should take him through.

Showmanship, whilst sporting three ‘duck eggs’ against his name, is very good on his day and anything near his best form will have him right in the finish.

Jimmy The Bear is racing in great heart, backs up quickly off his Mildura Cup victory and can be around the mark.

Green Fly has been consistent this prep and is a chance.

Backing #1 Duke De Sessa 

R9- Rhapsody Chic, from the airborne Freedman team, is racing in great heart and will prove hardest to beat here, he has never missed a place and doesn’t run a bad race. He is also the beneficiary of astute placement and spacing between runs.

El Rocko is in a rich vein of form and drawing out might ok late in the day.

Cardigan Queen gets in under the limit after Gaudray’s claim and is ready to improve.

The Open has done everything asked of him this time in and will be there at the end of proceedings.

Backing #12 Rhapsody Chic and a small play #14 Cardigan Queen.

R1-2x,6,5

R2-10xxx best of the day,6,1,9

R3-2xx value,8,5,1

R4-11&9..2,10

R5-6,7,4,11

R6-5x,4,11,1

R7-2xxx,5,6,7

R8-1xx value,3,2,7

R9-12,9,14,6

R2-10

R7-2 

R3-2 best value of the day

R8-1

Top Pick (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 13

Return – 9.4

ROI -27.69%

All Selections (1 unit – Top Tote)

Bets – 31

Return – 26.2

ROI -15.48%

Best of luck if you’re playing.