Mick’s Mail: Caulfield 19/10/2024
Past The Post Winners
R3- Keeneland is a horse I have a healthy opinion of, and against this field is my best bet of the day. His last win at Flemington was very good and from the barrier he should get every chance to repeat the dose. Another tick is his breeding, it is perfectly suited for a wet deck.
Red Aces has been good so far in his career, the step up to 2000M looks advantageous for him. He has performed well on soft surfaces previously and being by Dundeel will support his step out in trip.
Sydney visitor China Sea will relish the 2000M and should run well, as will Kingofwallstreet who improved sharply at its 2nd start.
Backing #1 Keeneland (Third Place)
R5- The resuming Niance will be very hard to beat here. She is unbeaten first up, reacts on soft tracks, and is drawn to have a few choices early. Jordan Childs has a fabulous affinity winning 3 of his 4 rides on her and I like the $4.50.
Penthouse can run a race at juicy odds also, his trainer Matty Dale has an uncanny knack of picking out nice races for his horses. This mare flies first up, handles all surfaces and gets Melham to give it the right steer, $23 is big overs.
Isthmus is going very well at present although, I’m against it at the price with barrier 1.
Lempicka has ability, can pull out a big run and a forward showing wont surprise.
Backing #10 Niance (1st Placed)
R7- A very open race to kick off the quaddy, could be a field job for those who want to stay alive. Full disclosure, I have struggled with the race, I will be influenced by track pattern and how badly the rain has affected the conditions.
For the record I have Katsu in front of Estriella, Rey Magnerio and Sans Doute.
Rey Magnerio would have been on top except the wet track, I don’t believe it will be helpful.
Spacewalk can pull out a big run fresh and Midtown Boss would be higher up in my thoughts on a drier track.
Scuderia is better that a 50/1 chance and if its leaderish can give plenty of cheek.
No Bet
R9- Not the strongest Caulfield Cup so I am specking Duke De Sessa to get the chockies. He went great in the Turnbull, in a much harder race, gets in with no weight and Ciaron Maher will have him ready to fire.
Maher will also have the import Sayedaty Sadaty ready to run the race of his life, his European numbers suggest he should be more than competitive against this grade of Group 1 horses.
Zardozi will find conditions and the journey to suit, albeit I have little knowledge of the hoop.
Eliyass will give a great sight on pace and has great wet track stats.
Coco Sun, Circle Of Fire, the in form Buckaroo and Muramasa can figure.
Backing #10 Duke De Sessa (1st Place)
R10- I’m tipping Pinstriped to finish of the day on a good note for punters. Two starts back he was the giant killer and beat the very best of them, he will appreciate the drop back to 1400M here. There is no Mr Brightside amongst this lot.
Aegon wasn’t right last start and has since trialled well, at his best he will test these.
Cosmic Vega is a bit of a smokey here, it has been tried in good company since arriving from Europe and hasn’t measured up. It has obviously had issues and if over them could surprise at good odds.
Mighty Ulysses is another who could figure and should be respected.
Backing #1 Pinstriped (3rd Place)
