MELBOURNE CUP DAY with Chris Scholtz

MELBOURNE CUP SELECTIONS

 SOULCOMBE 1; Without A Fight 2; Ashrun 3; Vauban 4; Gold Trip 5

 For The Exotics

(9) Vow And Declare; (17) Military Mission; (18) Serpentine; (20) More Felons; (21) Future History

This is a year where the class horses should dominate as this is a field with a tail as long as a snake.

TOP FIVE

6) SOULCOMBE: He’s a well-known risk at the barrier but Chris Waller says he has worked on his quirks and with blinkers removed is confident he will jump cleanly, unlike the Caulfield Cup where he missed the start by five lengths. It set him a near impossible task but he showed his class to finish a creditable seventh and would have been closer if he didn’t have to change course when running into it at the 400m. He’s produced his best Australian form at Flemington and with 53.5kg is weighted to win.

(3) WITHOUT A FIGHT: Incurred a 1kg penalty for his dominant Caulfield Cup win where the brutal pace was lengths faster than the average for 2400m. The penalty should not hinder his scope for improvement as he was having only his second start since

June and he rated on a par with the likes of recent high class Caulfield Cup winners Verry Elleegant and Mer De Glace. His strength at the finish confirmed that he produces his best on top of the ground, unlike last year when he failed in the Melbourne Cup on an affected track when making his Australian debut.

(11) ASHRUN: We clearly haven’t seen the best of this import due to his long absence from racing due to injury. He was a G1 performer in France before he won the 2020 Hotham Handicap (2500m) under 61kg at Flemington at his second Australian start. He then finished less than five lengths from the winner Twilight Payment in the Melbourne Cup before an injury sidelined him for three years. Since resuming this spring he has steadily improved his ratings and fitness with a strong second in the Geelong Cup (2400m) – a race that rates highly as a Melbourne Cup guide – topping off his preparation. Best of the lightweights with only 51.5kg.

(5) VAUBAN: We’ve seen a few false favourites from overseas in the Melbourne Cup but there isn’t much guesswork with this Irish raider as his quality UK form is well exposed and he has answered any queries about his fitness with some sparkling public trackwork. It’s hard to deny that he will be hard to beat if he runs to the form that saw him career away from his stablemate Absurde at Royal Ascot in June backed up by a soft win in the G3 Ballyroan Stakes in Ireland. He is a high rating G1 hurdle winner from a stable that excels in switching their jumpers to the flat however ratings students will quickly identify that he is no value at the head of the betting, noting that only one favourite in the last 17 years has won the Melbourne Cup.

(1) GOLD TRIP: Last year’s winner is a superb Flemington horse as he reaffirmed with a brilliant win the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) prior to his Caulfield Cup third. He is following the same program that led to his dominant win on a soft track last year where he carried 57.5kg, backing up to finish a luckless fifth in the Cox Plate that was on par with his ninth in that race last year. With only 1kg more than he carried 12 months ago he is not badly treated on a 50kg limit, giving him an even crack at equalling the metric weight carrying record of 58.5kg set by Think Big in 1975. His chances are clearly enhanced by an affected surface.

FOR THE EXOTICS

(9) VOW AND DECLARE – The 2019 winner has found a new lease of life. Rating well in his strong lead ups.

(17) MILITARY MISSION – Has improved with every run through the spring. Strong on pace runner will lack nothing in fitness.

(18) SERPENTINE – Would you ever dream an English Derby would get into a Melbourne Cup with only 1kg over the limit? Big price value.

(20) MORE FELONS – Impressed with his strong finish in his Australian debut in the Geelong Cup. Should improve for top stable.

(21) FUTURE HISTORY – Lightweight credentials are excellent with two wins and three placings in strong form races. Plenty of stamina.

Best Bets

RACE 4: (3) STANISLAUS

RACE 10: (16) CHORLTON LANE

For Value

RACE 6: (8) KOOLED

Selections

RACE 1: (7) ODINSON; (4) Blue Stratum; (5) Catoggio; (1) Admitted

RACE 2: (4) FORGOT YOU; (3) Sibaaq; (7) Mr Maestro; (6) Lord Vladivostok

RACE 3:  (2) AZTEC STATE; (10) Queen Of Dragons; (7) Warmonger; (3) Binotto

RACE 4: (3) STANISLAUS; (1) Barber; (5) Wiggum; (6) Perilous Fighter

RACE 5: ((3) MR WATERVILLE; (10) Garachico; (7) Supagirl; (8) Long Arm

RACE 6: (8) KOOLED; (2) Glint Of Silver; (7) Paperboy; (9) Platinum Wolf

RACE 7: (6) SOULCOMBE; (3) Without A Fight; (11) Ashrun; (5) Vauban; (1) Gold Trip

RACE 8: (3) KIMOCHI; (13) Commemorative; (11) Right To Party; (4) Facile

RACE 9: (8) LA DANSEUSE ROUGE; (9) Cardigan Queen; (1) Madame Pommery; (6) Wollombi

RACE 10: (16) CHORLTON LANE; (14) Robusto; (8) Rise Of The Masses; (2) Inver Park

RANDWICK November 7

Best Bets

RACE 3: (5) IOWNA MERC

RACE 8: (11) DASHING LEGEND

RACE 10: (6) DYNAMIC IMPACT

For Value 

RACE 5: (15) PRINCE OF HELENA

RACE 6: (12) EZEKEIL

RACE 7: (15) EASTERN GLOW

Selections

RACE 1: (8) STATE OF AMERICA; (5) Territory Express; (4) Dr Evil; (1) Pandano

RACE 2: (9) LIMITED REALITY; (2) Emperor; (10) Light Press; (13) Gold Lover

RACE 3: (5) IOWNA MERC 1: (7) Maximum Output; (4) Quick Tempo; (9) Acapella Sun

RACE 4: (6) NINDALOO STAR; (10) Soobooco; (5) Eyeque; (7) Sly Boots

RACE 5: (15) PRINCE OF HELENA; (4) Wicklow; (14) Super Helpful; (8) Iknowastar

RACE 6: (12) EZEKEIL; (9) I’ve Bean Tryin’; (4) Cavalier Charles; (15) Bandi’s Boy

RACE 7: (15) EASTERN GLOW; (5) Eaglemont; (21) Loch Eagle; (3) Spangler

RACE 8: (11) DASHING LEGEND; (8) Dragonstone; (5) Bacchanalia; (9) Insurrection

RACE 9: (5) FRUMOS; (6) Loch Eagle; (11) Rogue Bear; (12) Deficit

RACE 10: (6) DYNAMIC IMPACT; (7) Ka Bling; (2) Maotai; (8) Dalaalaat

TRIAL WATCH REPORT

NOTED TRIAL RUNNERS – November 7

RANDWICK TUESDAY: Quick Tempo (R3); Iowna Merc (R5); Cepheus (R5); Bacchanalia (R8); Dragonstone (R8); Insurrection (R8); Hard To Say (R8); Deficit (R9)

FLEMINGTON TUESDAY: Catoggio (R1); Kimochi (R8)

KEMBLA GRANGE TUESDAY: The Hawkesbury (R4); Magnatear (R4); Ichika (R4); Tigon Princess (R4); Code In Time (R5); Satin And Silk (R6); Kadall (R7)

CANBERRA TUESDAY: Code In Time (R9)

MUSWELLBROOK TUESDAY: Rum Diary (R3); Intervarsity (R2); Jo Jo Sun (R5)

RECENT TRIAL WATCH WINNERS: Way To The Stars; I’mintowin; Sharkim; Watch My Girl; Storm The Ramparts; Trapeze Pleasure; World Alliance; Chrysaor; Mumbai Muse; Yankee One; Estephania; Gai’s Artist; Kazou; Shangri La Express; Influential; Up To Mischief; Dream Hour; Luton Hoo; I Am Me; Just In Time; Need Some Luck; Sovereign Hill; Gustosisimo; King’s Gambit; Schwarz 

TRIAL POINTERS

ROSEHILL October 27: A good 900m heat win by smart sprinter IOWNA MERC (53.80; 33.85). Having his first trial since July he was asked to work to the line to run down his fast stablemate Malkovich.

NEWCASTLE October 24: Impressive first trial by unraced Mikki Isle filly INTERVARSITY to win her 800m heat (48.63; 34.11) with authority. She showed no early pace but railed through from the 500m under a big hold from her rider Aaron Bullock and strode away under no pressure to score by almost five lengths. She’s a natural runner with a smooth action and is sure to benefit from the experience.

RANDWICK October 20: The Waterhouse/Bott stable provided the three placegetters in the 2YO heat over 742m in another show of the depth in their juvenile team. Liked the work of the winner CATOGGIO with the time (43.50; 33.14) adding merit as she ran home quicker than the two open heats. The heats over 1045m featured a sharp win by the talented sprinter INSURRECTION, leading from start to finish for a strong win over subsequent winner Chrysaor.

HAWKESBURY October 16: The well performed Godolphin sprinter BACCHANALIA made a typical start to his campaign with an easy trial. He was placed in his 1000m heats working to the line with plenty in reserve.

ROSEHILL October 13: The open heat over 1030m saw recent maiden winner KADALL finish a nice fourth against better performed rivals under an easy ride.

BLACKBOOK REPORT

Eligible Blackbook Runners – November 7

FLEMINGTON TUESDAY: Mr Waterville (R5); Soulcombe (R7); Ashrun (R7); Right To Party (R8); Commemorative (R8)

RANDWICK TUESDAY: Territory Express (R1); Iowna Merc (R3); Lion’s Roar (R5/R7); I’ve Bean Tryin’ (R6); Cotehele (R7); Eastern Glow (R7); Sinawann (R8); Rogue Bear (R9); Deficit (R9); Ka Bling (R10)

SAPPHIRE COAST TUESDAY: Proklisi (R4)

MUSWELLBROOK TUESDAY: Acotango (R7)

FLEMINGTON THURSDAY: Saltaire (R7)

RECENT BLACKBOOK WINNERS: Storm The Ramparts; Without A Fight; Stroke Of Luck; Crackerjack Prince; Pesto; Sharp Shock; Attrition; Territory Express; Magic Time; Queen Of Dragons; Foujita San; Airman; Vienna Princess; First Immortal; Espiona; Archo Nacho; Satness; Wolfy; Unspoken; Recommendation; Snapback; Devoted; Garza Blanca

BLACKBOOKERS – Selected November 4

(Follow for next 3 starts)

CROSSHAVEN; HEMAN; LEANDRA; MUNHAMEK; MY BELLA MAE; WAR GEM