Caulfield Racing Tips 26/07/2/025

R2-7 best of the day

R6-9

R8-8

R9-8 best value play

R1- We kick off proceedings with a 2yo race with limited exposed form.

There are two horses I am interested in from a future viewpoint, the resuming Ole Dancer and the Stokes trained Shystar.

Ole Dancer looked like a horse of substance when debuting earlier in the year, she handled a decent field with ease and was tipped out with bigger targets in mind.

Shystar returned after a spell and was a good run when finishing just behind the placegetters, I think she will keep improving and is one to monitor.

No Bet

R2- My best bet on the card presents here with Gala Queen. This beautifully bred daughter of Deep Field could arguably have 5 wins against her name, 2 of those defeats had considerable excuses. She jumped out recently with good purpose suggesting she is ready to go. A good barrier, her winning jockey on board, and a favourable map, all point towards her being awfully hard to beat. She’s a great bet around the $5.50 mark.

Verdoux also returns from a spell and looks the stiffest opposition. Before going for a spell, he was edged out by a good horse at the Valley on a testing track. He has never finished worse than 2^nd in 5 career runs and is a first up winner. The inside draw and Shinn on, a couple more positives.

The consistent mare Pop Award is a minor money chance, as is Namesake, who was a forget run last start when young Jaylah took off too early, I’m sure she will be more patient here.

Backing #7 Gala Queen (2.5 win units)

R3- The staying race of the day and I suggest you take the opportunity to have lunch and a nice warm drink.

For the record I think Jimmy The Bear will win again although I couldn’t entertain anything like $1.60. He is airborne this prep and had realised the early career potential we knew he had. That said, he is untried at 2400M and is having his seventh start for the preparation. Looking at both these factors I think he will start closer to $1.90-$2.  I have him priced around $2.50.

Pounding will be the toughest to beat although he finds it hard to win. He is also going to 2400M for the first time and hasn’t won in 10 starts at the track. He gets Williams and a soft draw, two of its better positive attributes.

The race falls right away then with Chihuly and Ferago flukers hopes. Ferago is at least a multiple winner at the distance which is more than you can say for the rest of them.

No Bet

R4- A tricky event here with many of the main hopes being drawn awkwardly, luck early will play a vital part.

One of those is American Wolf, he has drawn sticky in 16 but gets Shinn to hopefully overcome that obstacle. He is a 2800M winner, so the trip poses no problem. Prior to his last run he had a freshen up and will have good residual fitness from that. In a race where many of his opposition are suspect at the trip, we won’t have any concerns with this fella.

Verona Rupees is a chance at double figure odds; it has had good grounding for this with three 2000M runs and gets the Payne staying polish. The draw is favourable and after the claim gets in well under the limit, a huge factor in staying races run on wet tracks.

Waller last start winner So Suave is a contender and is one who has drawn low, Jamie Melham should give him a nice trip and being by Zed the distance is no worry.

Another Payne runner Stop The Rock is going for four on end and must be considered, Prebble’s claim is a big help. My concern with him is if he’s coming to the end of it this time in as his last run had a ‘gutbuster’ feel to it.

Backing #2 American Wolf and #14 Verona Rupees (1 win unit on each horse)

R5- Another race where I think its prudent to back two runners.

The first of those is Noetzie, this lightly raced son of Hary Angel has only improved during his brief career and the Stokes team think him worthy of a Saturday Melbourne race. His latest win at Murray Bridge had a touch of arrogance about it, lesser horses would have capitulated. He sat wide off a strong speed and blew them away with contempt. Only very good horses can do that, and I think he is a very smart horse.

One that I am keen to have a tiny saver on is It’s A Yes, I don’t mind the grounding that Lindsay Smith has given this horse, its latest run suggested there was something ahead for it. Worth a small note at the $27.

Salsa Fellow has good ability and Shinn to steer; he is a chance. As is Electric Tommy who is going for three on the trot and gets in here with no weight after the claim.

Backing #7 Noetzie (1.5 win units) and #8 It’s A Yes (0.5 win units)

R6- Thinking the Matt Laurie trained Sun Setting is a big chance here at good odds. She will need a touch of luck early from a widish draw to settle midfield with cover. The extra 100M will suit off her last run and she will be very strong late.

Shadhavar was good on resumption in a hot field, she was very well supported in the market that day and her condition just gave out a fraction late. She will strip fitter here and be hard to hold out.

Mystic Reign can’t have done more than she did in her first prep, winning all 3 starts. She returns here and unfortunately has drawn the car park, with some luck early she will be in the finish. Being by Toronado, she will get better with racing and slightly longer trips.

Savagery Vibe is racing well, gets Williams on, and maps to be finishing off late.

Backing #9 Sun Settling (1.5 win units)

R7- A better than average field of milers presents here and I think we can level stake two horses and come out a winner.

Forgot You is the first of them, this horse has been plagued by injury (tendon) worries throughout its career and has still managed to win $860K prizemoney, testament to his quality. Last start he ran a huge race for us at cricket score odds, pointing to a return to somewhere near his best form. If he is close to that, then he will give this an almighty shake.

St Lawrence is my other bet, this new addition to the Bedggood yard has been building to this and his latest effort suggested another win isn’t far away. A win here will take him past the magic million dollars in prizemoney, again a reference to his quality.

Other hopes to throw into your quaddies are Earlswood who has a touch of class, and Detonator Jack who has run some mighty races at 1600M in ‘group’ company during his career.

One that is hard to line up and brings good overseas form is Newlook, there are decent wraps on him although I’m thinking they won’t have him fully wound up yet, he has other targets in mind in 4-6 weeks.

Backing #4 Forgot You and #5 St Lawrence (1 win unit on each horse)

R8- The race of the day and we see the return of the exciting Baraqiel.

I loved the last run of New York Lustre when running a gallant second to In Flight. This mare is a gun; she has won 5 of her 9 starts and only missed a place once. I see Jamie Melham positioning her one off the fence, just off midfield, and exploding down the middle of the track late to win.

Inhibitions will race well here; she was unsuited by the race shape first up and really ran through the line late. She is better than a $12 chance.

Baraqiel must go in, this lightly raced galloper is a winner of 6 races from only 10 starts. He turns 7 in a weeks’ time and still has plenty of racing in him. He is hard to get a gauge on from a fitness perspective, that’s why I have opted for those with a run or two under their belt.

Recommendation is honest, loves the track and the distance, he must go in.

Backing #8 New York Lustre (2 win units)

R9- My best value bet of the day is the Nick Ryan trained Haaracaine. This middle-distance horse will love the 1400M on a wet track first up, he will get back from the draw and be storming home late. The $31 available in some quarters is way over what I have him marked. A fabulous each way play. He’s also had a the cruellest gear change and I’m tipping that will turn him on greatly.

Keep Your Cool is the rightful favourite, she is racing well, is drawn perfectly, and handles all types of going.

Rheinberg has a touch of class and has earnt his top weight, the claim for Logan Bates will be most beneficial and he can surprise.

Pariah Pearl is a consistent mare who will make her own luck on speed and be there in the finish somewhere.

Backing #8 Haaracaine (1 win unit, 2 place units)

R1-limited exposed form, perhaps 2, watch for 9

R2-7xxx best of the day,11,10,1

R3-2,1,6,3 no value

R4-backing 2 & 14…16,1 tricky

R5-backing 7, saving 8, 1,4

R6-9x value,6,4,7

R7-backing 4 & 5,6,2,9??? big query

R8-8xx, 4,3,1

R9-8xx best value,6,1,13

Best of luck if you’re having a play.